Forecasting the Incidence of Cancer in Regional Victoria,Australia

Loddon Mallee Integrated Cancer Service plays a key role in planning the delivery of cancer services in the Loddon Mallee Region of Victoria, Australia. Forecasting the incidence of cancer is an important part of planning for these services. This article is written from an industry perspective. We describe the context of our work, review the literature on forecasting the incidence of cancer, discuss contemporary approaches, describe our experience with forecasting models, and list issues associated with applying these models. An extensive bibliography illustrates the world-wide interest in this forecasting problem. We hope that it is useful to researchers.     

Some sampling effects of pairwise correlated observations on likelihood ratio tests for the difference between two means

We study the effects of the inclusion of pairs of correlated observations in a sample on likelihood ratio tests for the difference in two means. In particular, we assess how the inclusion of correlated data pairs (e.g., such as data inadvertently collected from sib-pairs) affects the sample size requirements necessary for the implementation of a Likelihood Ratio (LR) test for the difference between two means. Our results suggest that correlated data pairs beneficially or adversely effect sample size requirements for an LR test to a degree functionally related to the mixture parameters dictating their relative frequencies in the larger sample on which the test will be performed, the strength of the correlation between the observations, and the size of imbalances in the sample with respect to the number of observations in each group. The relevance and implications of the results for genetic and epidemiologic research are discussed.     

The incorporation of gender scholarship into sociology

The prospects of an intellectual revolution in sociology informed in part by a feminist perspective loomed large in the early 1970s. Following Ward and Grant's (1985) empirical examination of gender and feminist scholarship in sociology journals between 1974 and 1983, our research provides an empirical assessment of the “second ten years” after the feminist critique of the discipline, 1984–1993. Specifically, we examine the incorporation of gender-content scholarship into mainstream sociology journals. Our research also assesses the extent to which gender-content scholarship published in these journals is feminist-oriented or not and the extent to which this is influenced by the sex of authors, the type of journal, and the sex composition of editorships and editorial boards. Our findings indicate that although there were more gender- and feminist-oriented articles published in the recent ten-year period, proportionally there were fewer feminist-oriented articles than in the previous ten-year period. Our findings suggest that a feminist revolution in sociology is not likely to occur anytime soon, although the assimilation of feminist scholarship into sociology is occurring along the lines of other critical intellectual movements in recent decades. David V. Waller current research focuses on intellectual and social changes in the social sciences including the impact of electronic journals on communication among scientists, and on the geopolitical and economic determinants of change in the contemporary world system. Dana Dunn has authored articles on gender stratification, sex-based earnings inequality, and women in political office, and is editor of Workplace/Women's Place, a textbook addressing women's experiences in the workplace. Please direct all correspondence to David V. Waller, Assistant Professor of Sociology, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Box 19599, University of Texas, Arlington, TX 76019 or to Waller@uta.edu.     

ON BOOTSTRAP HYPOTHESIS TESTING

We describe methods for constructing bootstrap hypothesis tests, illustrating our approach using analysis of variance. The importance of pivotalness is discussed. Pivotal statistics usually result in improved accuracy of level. We note that hypothesis tests and confidence intervals call for different methods of resampling, so as to ensure that accurate critical point estimates are obtained in the former case even when data fail to comply with the null hypothesis. Our main points are illustrated by a simulation study and application to three real data sets.     

CMHS/CSAT Collaborative Demonstration Program for Homeless Individuals

The Collaborative Demonstration Program for Homeless Individuals is providing an opportunity for several community agencies in the United States to explore innovative intervention and treatment strategies to address the needs of homeless people with co-occurring (mental illness and substance abuse) disorders. This cooperative agreement, funded jointly by the Center for Mental Health Services (CMHS) and the Center for Substance Abuse Treatment (CSAT), is a $3 million project supporting programs in various community agencies to develop, document, and evaluate programs for persons who are homeless with co-occurring disorders to be used as models in other communities. The program models include: Assertive Community Treatment, Psychosocial Rehabilitation, Therapeutic Community, and an integrated treatment model. The first phase of the two-phase project funded 16 programs in the U.S. to develop manuals within their primary treatment modalities for homeless people with co-occurring disorders. For Phase II of the project, six of the 16 model programs were competitively selected to demonstrate program impact through formal program evaluation efforts. The data derived from the various projects will be compiled into a compendium of information for state agencies and community service providers throughout the U.S.     

Hook‐Ups and Train Wrecks: Contextual Parameters and the Coordination of Jazz Interactions

This article discusses the importance of several parameters of context integral to jazz musicians' ability to hear musical signs as meaningful, such as performers' individual backgrounds and the various other styles of music available in the aural landscape, and how those parameters influence what the musicians play. Several examples from an ongoing ethnography of jazz jam sessions suggest that context is constituted by several variables, that different variables may become salient at different times, and that different interactants vary in their ability to attend to these variables. This study thus extends and elaborates frame analysis by showing that, while an interaction frame of the sort described by Goffman (1974) may perdure, it is subject to change, and the nature of the context it provides for interactions can change whenever a new interaction is initiated.     

Dynamic Pricing to Minimize Maximum Regret

We consider a dynamic pricing problem that involves selling a given inventory of a single product over a short, two‐period selling season. There is insufficient time to replenish inventory during this season, hence sales are made entirely from inventory. The demand for the product is a stochastic, nonincreasing function of price. We assume interval uncertainty for demand, that is, knowledge of upper and lower bounds but not a probability distribution, with no correlation between the two periods. We minimize the maximum total regret over the two periods that results from the pricing decisions. We consider a dynamic model where the decision maker chooses the price for each period contingent on the remaining inventory at the beginning of the period, and a static model where the decision maker chooses the prices for both periods at the beginning of the first period. Both models can be solved by a polynomial time algorithm that solves systems of linear inequalities. Our computational study demonstrates that the prices generated by both our models are insensitive to errors in estimating the demand intervals. Our dynamic model outperforms our static model and two classical approaches that do not use demand probability distributions, when evaluated by maximum regret, average relative regret, variability, and risk measures. Further, our dynamic model generates a total expected revenue which closely approximates that of a maximum expected revenue approach which requires demand probability distributions.     

Effects of Remanufacturable Product Design on Market Segmentation and the Environment

Despite documented benefits of remanufacturing, many manufacturers have yet to embrace the idea of tapping into remanufactured‐goods markets. In this article, we explore this dichotomy and analyze the effect of remanufacturable product design on market segmentation and product and trade‐in prices by studying a two‐stage profit‐maximization problem in which a price‐setting manufacturer can choose whether or not to open a remanufactured‐goods market for its product. Our results suggest that it is optimal for a manufacturer to design a remanufacturable product when the value‐added from remanufacturing is relatively high but product durability is relatively low and innovation is nominal. In addition, we find that entering a remanufactured‐goods market in and of itself does not necessarily translate into environmental friendliness. On the one hand, the optimal trade‐in program could result in low return and/or remanufacturing rates. On the other hand, a low price for remanufactured products could attract higher demand and thereby potentially result in more damage to the environment. Meanwhile, external restrictions imposed on total greenhouse gas emissions draw criticism in their own right because they risk stifling growth or reducing overall consumer welfare. Given these trade‐offs, we therefore develop and compare several measures of environmental efficiency and conclude that emissions per revenue can serve as the best proxy for emissions as a metric for measuring overall environmental stewardship.