互补品天才

安德烈和爱德华当初是怎么想的？ 1900年，就在两兄弟刚刚接管家族设在克莱蒙一费朗市橡胶生意之后不久，他们决定为旅行者出版一本指导手册。在他们的《米其林指南》一书当中，作者提供了大量加油站、酒店、餐厅和观光景点的信息，并配有详尽的地图和旅行提示。该书第一版印刷了35000册，米其林公司免费将其发放给那些感兴趣的读者们。他们的这一做法后来被证明是一个极其天才的举动。     

Social Amplification of Wildfire Risk: The Role of Social Interactions and Information Sources

Wildfire is a persistent and growing threat across much of the western United States. Understanding how people living in fire‐prone areas perceive this threat is essential to the design of effective risk management policies. Drawing on the social amplification of risk framework, we develop a conceptual model of wildfire risk perceptions that incorporates the social processes that likely shape how individuals in fire‐prone areas come to understand this risk, highlighting the role of information sources and social interactions. We classify information sources as expert or nonexpert, and group social interactions according to two dimensions: formal versus informal, and generic versus fire‐specific. Using survey data from two Colorado counties, we empirically examine how information sources and social interactions relate to the perceived probability and perceived consequences of a wildfire. Our results suggest that social amplification processes play a role in shaping how individuals in this area perceive wildfire risk. A key finding is that both “vertical” (i.e., expert information sources and formal social interactions) and “horizontal” (i.e., nonexpert information and informal interactions) interactions are associated with perceived risk of experiencing a wildfire. We also find evidence of perceived “risk interdependency”—that is, homeowners’ perceptions of risk are higher when vegetation on neighboring properties is perceived to be dense. Incorporating social amplification processes into community‐based wildfire education programs and evaluating these programs’ effectiveness constitutes an area for future inquiry.     

Children of Adolescent Mothers: Cognitive and Behavioral Status at Age Six

The cognitive and behavioral status at age six years of 185 children of adolescent mothers (60.5% boys) were assessed using the mother (CBCL) and teacher (TRF) report forms of the Child Behavior Checklist and the Bracken Basic Concepts Scale. There was evidence for impairment in all areas of functioning. More than half of the sample exceeded the borderline clinical cutoff (T = 60) on either the CBCL or TRF Total Problem score, and nearly half the sample had Bracken scores that were more than 1 SD below the normative mean. Only 26.9% of the children were in the normal range on all three measures. These results are discussed in terms of implications for social work practice with children and adolescent mother families.     

Forecasting the Incidence of Cancer in Regional Victoria,Australia

Loddon Mallee Integrated Cancer Service plays a key role in planning the delivery of cancer services in the Loddon Mallee Region of Victoria, Australia. Forecasting the incidence of cancer is an important part of planning for these services. This article is written from an industry perspective. We describe the context of our work, review the literature on forecasting the incidence of cancer, discuss contemporary approaches, describe our experience with forecasting models, and list issues associated with applying these models. An extensive bibliography illustrates the world-wide interest in this forecasting problem. We hope that it is useful to researchers.     

Some sampling effects of pairwise correlated observations on likelihood ratio tests for the difference between two means

We study the effects of the inclusion of pairs of correlated observations in a sample on likelihood ratio tests for the difference in two means. In particular, we assess how the inclusion of correlated data pairs (e.g., such as data inadvertently collected from sib-pairs) affects the sample size requirements necessary for the implementation of a Likelihood Ratio (LR) test for the difference between two means. Our results suggest that correlated data pairs beneficially or adversely effect sample size requirements for an LR test to a degree functionally related to the mixture parameters dictating their relative frequencies in the larger sample on which the test will be performed, the strength of the correlation between the observations, and the size of imbalances in the sample with respect to the number of observations in each group. The relevance and implications of the results for genetic and epidemiologic research are discussed.     

ON BOOTSTRAP HYPOTHESIS TESTING

We describe methods for constructing bootstrap hypothesis tests, illustrating our approach using analysis of variance. The importance of pivotalness is discussed. Pivotal statistics usually result in improved accuracy of level. We note that hypothesis tests and confidence intervals call for different methods of resampling, so as to ensure that accurate critical point estimates are obtained in the former case even when data fail to comply with the null hypothesis. Our main points are illustrated by a simulation study and application to three real data sets.     

CMHS/CSAT Collaborative Demonstration Program for Homeless Individuals

The Collaborative Demonstration Program for Homeless Individuals is providing an opportunity for several community agencies in the United States to explore innovative intervention and treatment strategies to address the needs of homeless people with co-occurring (mental illness and substance abuse) disorders. This cooperative agreement, funded jointly by the Center for Mental Health Services (CMHS) and the Center for Substance Abuse Treatment (CSAT), is a $3 million project supporting programs in various community agencies to develop, document, and evaluate programs for persons who are homeless with co-occurring disorders to be used as models in other communities. The program models include: Assertive Community Treatment, Psychosocial Rehabilitation, Therapeutic Community, and an integrated treatment model. The first phase of the two-phase project funded 16 programs in the U.S. to develop manuals within their primary treatment modalities for homeless people with co-occurring disorders. For Phase II of the project, six of the 16 model programs were competitively selected to demonstrate program impact through formal program evaluation efforts. The data derived from the various projects will be compiled into a compendium of information for state agencies and community service providers throughout the U.S.