Sample Size Calculation for Comparing Two Normal Random Samples Using Equilibrium Priors

A method of sample size calculation for deciding whether the difference of the expectations of two normal random samples is positive or negative is introduced. Prior information is used in the form of a set of plausible prior distributions and plausible loss functions for the two kinds of incorrect decisions. The sample size is set so that the prior-related probability of concluding the analysis with an impasse is smaller than a given threshold or by minimizing the total of the cost of the planned experiment and the expected losses due to an incorrect decision or an inconclusive outcome of the analysis.     

Examining the Experiences of Fathers of Children with a Life-Limiting Illness

Families who have a child diagnosed with a life-limiting illness (LLI) face substantial challenges resulting from the complexity and devastating impact of the condition and potential closeness of death. The experiences of fathers of a child with LLI have been understudied; therefore, this study explored the stresses, experiences, and strategies of these fathers, including their perceptions about support needs. Based on grounded theory, in-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with 18 fathers of children with LLI. Six fathers had experienced the death of their child. The overarching themes were stresses, means of coping, and perceived needs for support. Generally, fathers in this study struggled relative to discursive and internalized notions of fathers as providers and protectors for their children, combined with an inability to ease their child’s vulnerability to LLI. Participants were engaged in the care of their child with LLI, but several felt marginalized by health care providers in care planning and staff/family communication. Some fathers recognized and valued their support network while others had few supports. Some described personal growth and desired to help other fathers. Practice implications and recommendations include renewed application of family-centered care, overcoming presumptions about fathers’ roles, and recognizing the impact of LLI beyond physical health.     

Searching for contaminants

Decision theory is applied to the problem of identifying a small fraction of observations that contaminate a random sample from a specified distribution. The uncertainty about the parameters that characterise the contamination is addressed by sensitivity analysis. The analyst's (or the client's) perspective and priorities are incorporated in the analysis by ranges of plausible loss functions. An application to fraud detection is presented.     

Closed-Form Approximation for the AOQL of Attributes Acceptance Sample Plans

We derive upper and lower bounds at the point at which the average outgoing quality limit (AOQL) of an attributes acceptance sampling plan is achieved. Using a simple average of these bounds to approximate the ordinate of the AOQL, we develop an accurate, closed-form approximation to the AOQL. The bounds and approximation show how the parameters of a sampling plan affect the AOQL and can be used to study the behavior of the AOQL and other measures of the plan's performance.     

How Long Is a Spell of Unemployment? Illusions and Biases in the Use of CPS Data

Most data used to study the durations of unemployment spells come from the Current Population Survey (CPS), which is a point-in-time survey and gives an incomplete picture of the underlying duration distribution. We introduce a new sample of completed unemployment spells obtained from panel data and apply CPS sampling and reporting techniques to replicate the type of data used by other researchers. Predicted duration distributions derived from this CPS-like data are then compared to the actual distribution. We conclude that the best inferences that can be made about unemployment durations by using CPS-like data are seriously biased.     

Poverty and inequality in European regions

The European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) is the main source of information about poverty and economic inequality in the member states of the European Union. The sample sizes of its annual national surveys are sufficient for reliable estimation at the national level but not for inferences at the sub-national level, failing to respond to a rising demand from policy-makers and local authorities. We provide a comprehensive map of median income, inequality (Gini coefficient and Lorenz curve) and poverty (poverty rates) based on the equivalised household income in the countries in which the EU-SILC is conducted. We study the distribution of income of households (pro-rated to its members), not merely its median (or mean), because we regard its dispersion and frequency of lower extremes (relative poverty) as important characteristics. The estimation for the regions with small sample sizes is improved by the small-area methods. The uncertainty of complex nonlinear statistics is assessed by bootstrap. Household-level sampling weights are taken into account in both the estimates and the associated bootstrap standard errors.     

Inference for nonconjugate Bayesian Models using the Gibbs sampler

A Bayesian approach to modeling a rich class of nonconjugate problems is presented. An adaptive Monte Carlo integration technique known as the Gibbs sampler is proposed as a mechanism for implementing a conceptually and computationally simple solution in such a framework. The result is a general strategy for obtaining marginal posterior densities under changing specification of the model error densities and related prior densities. We illustrate the approach in a nonlinear regression setting, comparing the merits of three candidate error distributions.     

Spatial Equity in the Allocation of Funds to State Secondary Schools

Disproportionate attention is often focused on government programs which are adopted as part of a political platform. Yet these are often marginal in terms of the expenditures involved. Such is the case with education. The disadvantaged schools program introduced by the Whitlam Labor government involved only a very small outlay compared with the annual expenditure on education in Victoria. This paper argues that it is important to find ways of evaluating the spatial and social impact of the main bulk of government programs. Evidence is adduced which casts some doubt on the equity with which state government funds for state secondary schools have been allocated spatially in metropolitan Melbourne.     

The Biosociology of the Social Self

In sociology today, a consensus exists that the human self is exclusively socially determined. Many sociologists maintain that any considerations of the biological basis of human behavior are irrelevant. The arguments which are made today in favor of the social determination of the human personality use the theoretical insights of the Pragmatists and Symbolic Interactionists as their source of reference and proof. All of the various Pragmatic and Symbolic Interactionist theories use a number of assumptions about the biologically innate nature of human nature. To show that the theories which have presented a social deterministic view of man are themselves deeply immersed in biological assumptions demonstrates that the irrelevance of biological factors as determinants of the human self has not been convincingly proved yet. Also it suggests the possibility that theories dealing with man's social nature and those concerned with innate species-specific characteristics may not necessarily be mutually exclusive.