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331.
James H. Lambert Nicholas C. Matalas Con Way Ling Yacov Y. Haimes Duan Li 《Risk analysis》1994,14(5):731-742
Use of probability distributions by regulatory agencies often focuses on the extreme events and scenarios that correspond to the tail of probability distributions. This paper makes the case that assessment of the tail of the distribution can and often should be performed separately from assessment of the central values. Factors to consider when developing distributions that account for tail behavior include (a) the availability of data, (b) characteristics of the tail of the distribution, and (c) the value of additional information in assessment. The integration of these elements will improve the modeling of extreme events by the tail of distributions, thereby providing policy makers with critical information on the risk of extreme events. Two examples provide insight into the theme of the paper. The first demonstrates the need for a parallel analysis that separates the extreme events from the central values. The second shows a link between the selection of the tail distribution and a decision criterion. In addition, the phenomenon of breaking records in time-series data gives insight to the information that characterizes extreme values. One methodology for treating risk of extreme events explicitly adopts the conditional expected value as a measure of risk. Theoretical results concerning this measure are given to clarify some of the concepts of the risk of extreme events. 相似文献
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333.
Urinary incontinence, urgency, overactive bladder symptoms, cystitis and urinary tract infections are common conditions that collectively trouble over one-third of the female population around and beyond the time of menopause, with a detrimental effect on physical, social and mental wellbeing. Apart from pharmacological and surgical treatments, a long list of lifestyle, behavioural, physical and complementary interventions have been introduced over the years to relieve lower urinary tract symptoms. This review examines the effect on these symptoms of lifestyle factors (such as weight, smoking, dietary components, fluid intake, exercise and bowel habit), complementary therapies (such as herbal remedies, acupuncture and hypnotherapy), behavioural therapies (bladder training and timed and prompted voiding), pelvic floor muscle training and some over-the-counter preparations. The high prevalence of the above conditions in combination with the increasing publicity for and awareness of the subject has contributed to the popularity of the interventions considered in this review. Many of them, however, lack a solid evidence base with regard to their efficacy and few have been subjected to robust randomized trials. It is widely recognized that there is a need for further prospective interventional studies of all lifestyle interventions to evaluate the effects of modifying these factors on lower urinary tract symptoms. 相似文献
334.
Nicholas J. Horton 《The American statistician》2015,69(2):138-145
The 175th anniversary of the ASA provides an opportunity to look back into the past and peer into the future. What led our forebears to found the association? What commonalities do we still see? What insights might we glean from their experiences and observations? I will use the anniversary as a chance to reflect on where we are now and where we are headed in terms of statistical education amidst the growth of data science. Statistics is the science of learning from data. By fostering more multivariable thinking, building data-related skills, and developing simulation-based problem solving, we can help to ensure that statisticians are fully engaged in data science and the analysis of the abundance of data now available to us. 相似文献
335.
Zamboanga BL Rodriguez L Horton NJ 《Journal of American college health : J of ACH》2008,56(6):651-656
OBJECTIVE AND PARTICIPANTS: The authors designed this cross-sectional study to examine sports team differences in hazardous alcohol use and drinking game participation, as well as the social correlates of these behaviors among female college athletes (N = 176; M age = 19.9 years, SD = 1.24, range = 18-22). METHODS: Respondents completed self-report surveys in small groups. They reported drinking behaviors, frequency of team social events involving alcohol use, and team cohesion. RESULTS: The authors found significant differences across sports teams with regard to hazardous alcohol use and participation in drinking games with teammates. Findings also revealed that a high frequency of team social events involving alcohol use was associated with elevated use and an increased likelihood of drinking game participation. CONCLUSIONS: The authors discuss future research directions and implications. 相似文献
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337.
Nila Shakiba Gal Doron Avigail Gordon-Hacker Alisa Egotubov Nicholas J. Wagner Noa Gueron-Sela 《Infancy》2023,28(1):34-55
The COVID-19 pandemic may impact the development of infants' social communication patterns with their caregivers. The current study examined continuity, stability, and bidirectional associations in maternal and infant dyadic Emotional Availability (EA) before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Participants were 110 Israeli mother-infant dyads (51% girls) that were assessed prior to (Mage = 3.5 months) and during (Mage = 12.4 months) the pandemic. At both time points, mother-infant interactions were observed during play (nonstressful context) and tasks designed to elicit infant frustration (stressful context). Maternal and child EA were coded offline. Maternal EA demonstrated no significant mean-level changes from before to during the COVID-19 pandemic, whereas infant responsiveness and involvement increased over time. Stability and bidirectional associations in EA differed by context and were evident only in the stressful context. Mothers' perceived levels of social support further moderated these associations. Specifically, infants' pre-pandemic responsiveness and involvement predicted maternal EA during the pandemic only when mothers reported low levels of social support. Our findings suggest that maternal and child EA were not adversely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, patterns of EA demonstrated moderate-to-no stability over time, suggesting considerable individual differences in trajectories of EA. 相似文献
338.
Coming as a surprise to most observers and following the self‐immolation of a street vendor in a remote town of central Tunisia, the Jasmine Revolution of 2010–2011, the first uprising of the Arab Spring, has often been seen as a success story for digital communication through widespread use of social media. We suggest that this applied to the later phase of the protests in Tunisia but not to the initial phase, which occurred in local areas in impoverished and marginalized regions with highly limited access to the Internet. The initial phase lasted a full 10 days before the protests reached major cities where social media operated. Building on Tilly's concept of trust network, we offer the concept of local solidarities as key to the beginning of the Arab Spring uprisings and as encompassing spatial proximity, shared marginalized status, and kinship, all of which combined to serve as a basis for trust and collective action. 相似文献
339.
Nicholas C. Smith 《Sociology Compass》2020,14(6)
Scholars across several theoretical traditions have become increasingly interested in understanding the underlying factors and mechanisms that contribute to the formation and mobilization of collective identities in health social movements (HSMs). In this essay, I make the case that stigma can serve as a useful theoretical and conceptual framework in understanding the processes through which collective identities emerge and mobilize around health‐related issues. I begin by introducing the concepts of HSMs, collective identity and stigma and reviewing how scholars have defined these concepts. Next, I establish theoretical, conceptual, and empirical links among stigma, collective identity, and HSMs. I conclude by further specifying how and why stigma can serve as a unifying framework for medical sociologists, social psychologists, and social movement researchers to advance scholarship on HSMs. 相似文献
340.
This paper examines job displacement’s long-run effect on health insurance coverage and source of coverage. We find that displacement lowers the probability that an individual receives health insurance even ten years after job loss. However, those without children at the time of job loss largely drive this result. While displaced workers with and without children face similar losses in access to employer-provided health insurance, those with children mostly offset these losses by acquiring health insurance from other sources, particularly through the increased use of Medicaid. 相似文献