Marginal regression models with a time to event outcome and discrete multiple source predictors

Information from multiple informants is frequently used to assess psychopathology. We consider marginal regression models with multiple informants as discrete predictors and a time to event outcome. We fit these models to data from the Stirling County Study; specifically, the models predict mortality from self report of psychiatric disorders and also predict mortality from physician report of psychiatric disorders. Previously, Horton et al. found little relationship between self and physician reports of psychopathology, but that the relationship of self report of psychopathology with mortality was similar to that of physician report of psychopathology with mortality. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) have been used to fit marginal models with multiple informant covariates; here we develop a maximum likelihood (ML) approach and show how it relates to the GEE approach. In a simple setting using a saturated model, the ML approach can be constructed to provide estimates that match those found using GEE. We extend the ML technique to consider multiple informant predictors with missingness and compare the method to using inverse probability weighted (IPW) GEE. Our simulation study illustrates that IPW GEE loses little efficiency compared with ML in the presence of monotone missingness. Our example data has non-monotone missingness; in this case, ML offers a modest decrease in variance compared with IPW GEE, particularly for estimating covariates in the marginal models. In more general settings, e.g., categorical predictors and piecewise exponential models, the likelihood parameters from the ML technique do not have the same interpretation as the GEE. Thus, the GEE is recommended to fit marginal models for its flexibility, ease of interpretation and comparable efficiency to ML in the presence of missing data.     

Analysing direct effects in randomized trials with secondary interventions: an application to human immunodeficiency virus prevention trials

Summary.  The 'Methods for improving reproductive health in Africa' trial is a recently completed randomized trial that investigated the effect of diaphragm and lubricant gel use in reducing infection by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) among susceptible women. 5045 women were randomly assigned to either the active treatment arm or not. Additionally, all subjects in both arms received intensive condom counselling and provision, the 'gold standard' HIV prevention barrier method. There was much lower reported use of condoms in the intervention arm than in the control arm, making it difficult to answer important public health questions based solely on the intention-to-treat analysis. We adapt an analysis technique from causal inference to estimate the 'direct effects' of assignment to the diaphragm arm, adjusting for use of condoms in an appropriate sense. Issues raised in the trial apply to other trials of HIV prevention methods, some of which are currently being conducted or designed.     

The governmentalities of neoliberalism: panopticism,post‐panopticism and beyond

This paper draws on the writings of Michel Foucault, in particular his lectures on biopolitics at the Collège de France from 1978–79, to examine liberalism and neoliberalism as governmental forms that operate through different models of surveillance. First, this paper re‐reads Foucault's Discipline and Punish in the light of his analysis of the art of liberal government that is advanced through the course of these lectures. It is argued that the Panopticon is not just an architecture of power centred on discipline and normalization, as is commonly understood, but a normative model of the relation of the state to the market which, for Foucault, is ‘the very formula of liberal government’. Second, the limits of panopticism, and by extension liberal governance, are explored through analysis of Gilles Deleuze's account of the shift from disciplinary to ‘control’ societies, and Zygmunt Bauman's writings on individualization and the ‘Synopticon’. In response to Deleuze and Bauman, the final section of this paper returns to Foucault's lectures on biopolitics to argue that contemporary capitalist society is characterized not simply by the decline of state powers (the control society) or the passing down of responsibilities from the state to the individual (the individualization thesis), but by the neoliberal marketization of the state and its institutions; a development which is underpinned by a specific form of governmentality. In conclusion, a four‐fold typology of surveillance is advanced: surveillance as discipline, as control, as interactivity, and as a mechanism for promoting competition. It is argued that while these types of surveillance are not mutually exclusive, they are underpinned by different governmentalities that can be used to address different aspects of the relationship between the state and the market, and with this the social and cultural logics of contemporary forms of market capitalism more broadly.     

Geographical variability and network structure

In this paper, we explore the potential implications of geographical variability for the structure of social networks. Beginning with some basic simplifying assumptions, we derive a number of ways in which local network structure should be expected to vary across a region whose population is unevenly distributed. To examine the manner in which these effects would be expected to manifest given realistic population distributions, we then perform an exploratory simulation study that examines the features of large-scale interpersonal networks generated using block-level data from the 2000 U.S. Census. Using a stratified sample of micropolitan and metropolitan areas with populations ranging from approximately 1000 to 1,000,000 persons, we extrapolatively simulate network structure using spatial network models calibrated to two fairly proximate social relations. From this sample of simulated networks, we examine the effect of both within-location and between-location heterogeneity on a variety of structural properties. As we demonstrate, geographical variability produces large and distinctive features in the “social fabric” that overlies it; at the same time, however, many aggregate network properties can be fairly well-predicted from relatively simple spatial demographic variables. The impact of geographical variability is thus predicted to depend substantially on the type of network property being assessed, and on the spatial scale involved.     

Influentials,novelty, and social contagion : The viral power of average friends,close communities,and old news

What is the effect of (1) popular individuals, and (2) community structures on the retransmission of socially contagious behavior? We examine a community of Twitter users over a five month period, operationalizing social contagion as ‘retweeting’, and social structure as the count of subgraphs (small patterns of ties and nodes) between users in the follower/following network.     

Associations of eldercare and competing demands with health and work outcomes among manufacturing workers

Employees juggling eldercare and work report work–family conflicts and poor health-related outcomes, but little is known about eldercare demands (ECDs) in the context of competing demands in the manufacturing workforce. This study determines how ECDs vary by age, gender, income, and job category, and how ECDs and competing demands are associated with health-related and work-related outcomes, among manufacturing workers. Employees from six manufacturing companies completed questionnaires. ECDs were defined as providing assistance to an adult aged 65 and older due to disability or chronic illness; those with ECDs were asked how many care-hours per week and whether assistance included personal care. Workers over age 45 were more likely than younger workers to report ECDs. After adjusting for competing demands and socio-demographic characteristics, ECDs were associated with greater depressive symptoms and family-to-work conflict (FWC), providing 5 or more hours of eldercare weekly was associated with greater depressive symptoms, and providing personal care was associated with greater FWC.     

Qualitative examination of rural service provision to persons with concurrent developmental and mental health challenges

Although there has been an international trend away from institutionalization to community-based care, this has not always been successful, particularly for the unique and vulnerable population diagnosed with both mental health and developmental disabilities. The challenge of meeting the needs of this population is increased in rural and remote areas. As a part of a larger study, this paper reports on the voices of service providers for people dually diagnosed as they maneuver through the considerable challenges of meeting complex needs while located in remote northern communities. The complexities of rural service provision for those with a dual diagnosis of mental illness and developmental disability is also highlighted and includes challenges of northern living, difficulties in diagnosis, and system level issues. This paper confronts the inequities in provision of effective community-based services to this population and draws attention to the need to support and develop local, integrated services in order to build inclusive communities for all.     

‘In the wreck of a master's fortune’: slave provisioning and planter debt in the British Caribbean

This article traces how debates over the ability of indebted West Indian planters to adequately provision their slaves influenced the politics of slavery in the British Empire in an era of abolitionism and amelioration projects. Specifically, the article examines the promulgation of colonial laws establishing priorities for debts incurred for the purchase of slave provisions over mortgage debts in the late-eighteenth and early-nineteenth centuries. Debt-priority laws and contemporary responses to them suggest the ways in which both proslavery and antislavery interests defined and contested the moral as well as material dimensions of West Indian commerce and finance. A detailed quantitative case study provides information on provisioning and other expenses on two Tobago sugar estates (1807–1815).