Parallelizing particle filters with butterfly interactions

The bootstrap particle filter (BPF) is the cornerstone of many algorithms used for solving generally intractable inference problems with hidden Markov models. The long-term stability of the BPF arises from particle interactions that typically make parallel implementations of the BPF nontrivial. We propose a method whereby particle interaction is done in several stages. With the proposed method, full interaction can be accomplished even if we allow only pairwise communications between processing elements at each stage. We show that our method preserves the consistency and the long-term stability of the BPF, although our analysis suggests that the constraints on the stagewise interactions introduce errors leading to a lower convergence rate than standard Monte Carlo. The proposed method also suggests a new, more flexible, adaptive resampling scheme, which, according to our numerical experiments, is the method of choice, displaying a notable gain in efficiency in certain parallel computing scenarios.     

The Education–Occupation (Mis)Match of Asia-Born Immigrants in Australia

Population Research and Policy Review - Skills shortages in the developed world are being addressed through selective immigration programs. Immigrant skills wastage signifies costly inefficiencies...     

The Prioritization of Island Nations as Refuges from Extreme Pandemics

In this conceptual article with illustrative data, we suggest that it is useful to rank island nations as potential refuges for ensuring long-term human survival in the face of catastrophic pandemics (or other relevant existential threats). Prioritization could identify the several island nations that are most suitable for targeting social and political preparations and further investment in resiliency. We outline a prioritization methodology and as an initial demonstration, we then provide example rankings by considering 20 sovereign island states (all with populations greater than 250,000 and no land borders). Results describe each nation in nine resilience-relevant domains covering location, population, resources, and society according to published data. The results indicate that the most suitable island nations for refuge status are Australia, followed closely by New Zealand, and then Iceland, with other nations all well behind (including the relatively high-income ones of Malta and Japan). Nevertheless, some key contextual factors remain relatively unexplored. These include the capacity of the jurisdiction to rapidly close its borders when the emerging threat was first detected elsewhere, and whether or not large subnational islands should be the preferred focus for refuge design (e.g., the Australian state of Tasmania, the island of Hokkaido in Japan, or the South Island of New Zealand). Overall, this work provides conceptual thinking with some initial example analysis. Further research could refine the selection of metrics, how best to weight the relevant domains, and how the populations of prioritized island nations view their nation's selection as a potential refuge for human survival.     

Some characteristics of moral problems in evaluation practice

In order to understand better the nature of moral problems in evaluation, an actual incident from evaluation practice is examined. Based on the incident, six characteristics of moral problems are identified and briefly discussed. The types of research needed on moral aspects of evaluation practice are presented, and ways in which the evaluation profession can aid practitioners in dealing with moral problems are outlined.     

Using Surveys in Public Participation Processes for Risk Decision Making: The Case of the 2003 British GM Nation? Public Debate

This article takes as its case study the “GM Nation?” public debate, a major participation process on the commercialization of agricultural biotechnology, which occurred in Britain during the summer of 2003. We investigate possible self‐selection biases in over 36,000 open questionnaire responses on the risks and benefits of genetically modified crops and food obtained during GM Nation? A comparison sample of equivalent responses from a statistically representative sample (n= 1,363) of the British general public obtained shortly after the conclusion of the debate is reported. This comparison shows that the GM Nation? open responses were indeed not fully representative of British “public opinion” regarding agricultural biotechnology. Rather, such opinion is not a unitary whole, but fragmented, with considerable ambivalence coexisting alongside outright opposition to GM agriculture. The methodological implications for multistage participation processes are discussed: in particular, the need to anticipate outcomes of complex design decisions, and to include representative public surveys as standard where measures of broader public attitudes to risk are an important objective.     

Research Review: Risk and protection in the context of services for children in need

The paper summarizes the evidence and provides definitions of risk, protective factors, resilience, coping strategies and need in the context of children in need. Definitions are offered for children in need and children's services. The way in which individual interpretation can alter objective assessment of risk is explored. A method for recording evidence relevant to clinical practice on behalf of children in need is offered. Implications for policy and practice are discussed.     

Future of European human resource management: A contingent approach

The ability to cope with an increasingly open European Market, enhanced mobility between nation states and the threat of competition from the Far East will be highly prized organisational skills in the third millenium. Many commentators have argued that ‘Europeanisation’ (broadly defined) is an irreversible process and companies will have to cope proactively with this or perish. However, in this article we argue that many of these predictions are based on an uncritical acceptance of the ‘internationalisation’ thesis, and on subjective assessments of possible future trends — rather than on sound empirical research within strong theoretical frameworks. Accordingly, this article takes a critical look at some widely-held assumptions about internationalisation, Europeanisation and the (potential) development of European Human Resource Management (EHRM). It then goes on to suggest a framework of research which will be more able to capture future developments in EHRM and thereby facilitate more robust exchanges on strategic HRM with those companies operating in a European setting.     

Black Mayors/White Mayors: Explaining Their Approval

Performance models have been the norm in research on nationaland state executives, but oddly this model has rarely been extendedto the next level of executive office, mayors. The increasingnumber of African American mayors suggests that race may complicatethe performance model of approval at the local level. This researchtests a performance model of mayoral approval that takes racialfactors into account. The model is tested in two white citieswith white mayors and two black cities with black mayors. Performanceis measured by citizen evaluations of a variety of urban conditions,some of which citizens can observe firsthand. Findings indicatethat (1) performance matters in evaluating black and white mayors,and its influence does not seem to be related to the race ofthe mayor; (2) performance has more explanatory power over mayoralapproval than race, a pattern that holds for both black andwhite mayors; (3) race has more impact on the approval of blackmayors than on white mayors; and (4) blacks in black citieshave lower evaluations of local government performance in theircities than blacks in white cities. We conclude that the performancemodel is generalizable to the local level, even with the complicationsof race.