Curtains at Number Ten: predicting the general election

The UK general election must be called by May 2010, with Conservatives widely expected to oust Labour. How certain are those expectations, and what problems face those trying to predict the results? Opinion pollster Nick Moon reveals all.     

THE FUTURE OF PUBLIC MEDIA CULTURES

This paper seeks to tie in the arguments that can be connected to the development of a global media culture and concerns around cosmopolitan forms of democracy. This is done by considering arguments for: (i) a global human right initiative in respect of global media conglomerates; (ii) technological change in respect of digital cultures; and (iii) the arrival of what Castells'shas described as the culture of 'real virtuality'. These views and perspectives are assessed in terms of the contributions they are likely to make towards what I call a 'cautious cosmopolitanism'. Finally I seek to make some definite policy recommendations that might help foster conditions in which cosmopolitan democracy could flourish.     

Outsourcing and union power

The outsourcing of union work and jobs either diffuses or diminishes union membership, depending on perspective and situation. The correlation of trends in union membership to trends in union power, while less than perfect, has until recently been relatively strong over the past sixteen years. The fact that as diverse a sample of unions as AFSCME, SEIU, and UAW have chosen to make outsourcing a prominent labor/public relations issue suggests that the correlation continues to be perceived by the union movement to be significant, notwithstanding the efforts of the “new” leadership of the AFL-CIO to break that link with respect to union political power by “taxing” member unions and their members to contribute both money and militancy to the 1996 election cycle. Although outsourcing may lead only to the diffusion of union membership either within or between unions, as opposed to the diminution of union membership, this fact has not received a great deal of attention. The net effect on total union membership of outsourcing from one union employer to another union employer is unclear, although the effect on the membership of the union at the outsourcing employer is not. The redistribution of membership within a union as a result of outsourcing is likely to have little immediate impact on union power. However, as even the best case scenario presented above suggests, it may have significant long-run deleterious effects on union bargaining power by taking labor out of a sheltered market and putting it into potentially competitive market. This is particularly likely to be the case when outsourcing (1) places the outsourced work into a different industry or wage contour and (2) creates the possibility of moving from sole-source to multiplesource supplier arrangements. The redistribution of membership between unions as a result of outsourcing is unlikely to have a major impact on union power broadly defined. It can have, however, serious deleterious effects in terms of the power of an individual union, as suggested in my “competitive case” scenario. The fact that one union’s losses due to outsourcing may be another union’s gain is of little consolation to the losing union. That act, in and of itself, may make the threat of outsourcing a potential union “Achilles heel” at the bargaining table by placing it into competition with some other, perhaps unknown, union as well as possibly nonunion competition. The most obvious threat to union power comes from outsourcing that diminishes union membership overall by transferring jobs from union to nonunion employers. The willingness and ability of employers to move work/jobs entirely out of the orbit of union control constitutes, in terms of power and particularly union bargaining power, a revisitation of the phenomenon of the “runaway shop.” It may also be viewed as a proactive form of hiring permanent replacements for (potentially) striking workers. The union options in dealing with such a challenge are to endeavor to preclude outsourcing through legislation or collective bargaining or to chase the work by organizing the unorganized, hopefully with the help of the unionized outsourcing employer. Neither option may be easy, but as the 1996 auto industry negotiations suggest, the former may be less difficult than the latter. The possibility that outsourcing from union to nonunion employer may provide unions with the power to organize from the top (outsourcer) down (outsourcee) cannot be entirely ignored as the issue of supplier “neutrality” reportedly was raised in the 1996 auto negotiations. The adverse effects of outsourcing on union political and financial power, by virtue of its impact on the level or distribution of union membership, can and may well be offset by an increase in union activism—as measured by dues levels, merger activity, organizing commitment, and political action. The adverse effects of outsourcing on union bargaining power are more problematical from the union standpoint. The effect of outsourcing, whatever its rationale or scenario, appears to be to put union labor back into competition. Thus, outsourcing constitutes yet another challenge to the labor movement in its ongoing and seemingly increasingly unsuccessful battle to take and keep U.S. union labor out of competition by proving itself able and willing to organize to the extent of the market and standardizing wages in that market.     

White Universal Identity as a “Sense of Group Position”

This article seeks to expand upon Blumer's “Race Prejudice as a Sense of Group Position.” I argue that Blumer's group position model invites us to critically consider the role that dominant group identity and “threats” to identity play in reproducing racial inequalities. Identities seat both material and ideal concerns, and white identities, in particular, may provide “ontological security” that whites will defensively protect. I draw on ethnographic research conducted in 1994–96 in two demographically distinct high schools. Young whites in both schools expressed identities that positioned them as “universal,” and they responded reactively, even prejudicially, when their universal group position was threatened.     

All My Friends Are Doing It: Potentially Offensive Sexual Behavior Perpetration Within Adolescent Social Networks

The current study used social network analysis to investigate peer network and individual predictors of potentially offensive sexual behaviors among high school students. Ninth‐grade students (n = 308; 158 girls) completed surveys assessing their perpetration of potentially offensive sexual behaviors against their peers, as well as measures of their sexualized gender stereotypes and propensity to self‐monitor. Participants selected up to eight of their closest friends from a roster. Results revealed homophily of potentially offensive sexual behaviors, such that adolescents perpetrated similar amounts of physical/verbal, electronic, and homophobic behaviors as their friends. Characteristics of the peer network (e.g., mean network perpetration, centrality of individual, and gender composition) and the individual adolescent (e.g., gender, sexualized gender stereotypes, self‐monitoring) predicted adolescents’ own behavior.     

Social Work, Merit and Ethnic Diversity

This paper concentrates on the issues of merit and diversityin social work. The principal focus is ethnic diversity, usedas an example to illustrate a wider point about diversity. Itis clear that ethnic diversity in particular has become a majorpolitical objective across the public sector as part of the‘community cohesion’ initiative. Several benefitshave been identified and linked to the achievement of ethnicdiversity in the workforce; many of these have appeared in socialwork debate. The argument here is that while diversity has transformativepotential, it must be located within a more radical agenda ifit is to be successful. As a profession with a radical threadto its pedigree, social work is well placed to take this agendaforward.     

Possible Selves Among Urban Youths of Color: An Exploration of Peer Beliefs and Gender Differences

Drawing from possible selves theory (H. Markus & P. Nurius, 1986), this study explored the roles of peer beliefs about school and gender differences in the development of academic and occupational visions of the future among 216 urban youths of color. Peer beliefs were not related to career and educational possible selves. No gender‐based differences were found in educational possible selves; however, boys were more likely to report hoped‐for and expected possible selves with lower occupational prestige than were girls. Directions for future research and the implications for practice in counseling urban youths of color are discussed.     

“That's So Gay!”: Examining the Covariates of Hearing This Expression Among Gay,Lesbian, and Bisexual College Students

Abstract

Objective: The investigators examined the health and well-being correlates of hearing the popular phrase “that's so gay” among gay, lesbian, and bisexual (GLB) emerging adults. Participants: Participants were 114 self-identified GLB students aged 18 to 25 years. Methods: An online survey was distributed to students at a large public university in the Midwest during winter 2009. Results: Participants’ social and physical well-being was negatively associated with hearing this phrase, specifically feeling isolated and experiencing physical health symptoms (ie, headaches, poor appetite, or eating problems). Conclusions: College professionals and student leaders must acknowledge that the phrase is a form of heterosexist harassment. As such, policies addressing diversity and harassment should address students’ use of this phrase, aiming to reduce its use. Additionally, colleges and universities should develop practices that counteract poorer well-being associated with hearing the phrase.     

福特复活“探险者”

在suvN靡美国的90年代，福特探险者是当时的销量冠军，每年狂销几十万辆。但是随着高油价和环保时代的到来，探险者便一蹶不振了。在去年的旧车换现金计划中，报废的探险者比其他车型都要多。