Fear of Ruin

This paper offers interpretations and applications of the “fear of ruin” coefficient (Aumann and Kurz, 1977, Econometrica). This coefficient is useful for analyzing the behavior of expected utility maximizers when they face binary lotteries with the same worse outcome. Comparative statics results of “more fear of ruin” are derived. The partial ordering induced by the fear of ruin coefficient is shown to be weaker than that induced by the Arrow-Pratt coefficient. JEL Classification: D81     

Wheelchair coasting downhill is a reliable work task

OBJECTIVE: To measure test-retest reliability of physiological responses during submaximal wheelchair downhill and horizontal treadmill ergometry. DESIGN: A test-retest design was used on a convenience sample. Four male and three female non-wheelchair users, (22-43 years of age) propelled or coasted in a wheelchair under steady-state conditions. Four minute work bouts were performed at 1, 2, 3, and 4 km/hr. (0.62, 1.24, 1.86 and 2.5 mph, respectively) at 0 degrees, -2 degrees, and -4 degrees. Subjects were studied twice under each of the 12 conditions. Six tests were performed daily, with testing occurring over four days. Dependent variables included oxygen consumption, minute ventilation and heart. Intraclass correlation coefficients were determined for each set of paired tests. RESULTS: Intraclass correlation coefficients were high for absolute VO_{2}(R=0.84-0.99), V_{E} (R=0.86-0.98) and HR (R=0.95-1.0) over the range of 4 speeds and 3 inclinations studied. On average, % differences from test 1 to test 2 were less than 3%. CONCLUSION: At the treadmill speeds and inclinations (positive and negative) studied in this investigation, untrained wheelchair users responded in a physiologically reliable manner.     

Nested Kriging predictions for datasets with a large number of observations

This work falls within the context of predicting the value of a real function at some input locations given a limited number of observations of this function. The Kriging interpolation technique (or Gaussian process regression) is often considered to tackle such a problem, but the method suffers from its computational burden when the number of observation points is large. We introduce in this article nested Kriging predictors which are constructed by aggregating sub-models based on subsets of observation points. This approach is proven to have better theoretical properties than other aggregation methods that can be found in the literature. Contrarily to some other methods it can be shown that the proposed aggregation method is consistent. Finally, the practical interest of the proposed method is illustrated on simulated datasets and on an industrial test case with \(10^4\) observations in a 6-dimensional space.     

Social structure,relationships and reproduction in quasi-family networks: brokering circular migration of Vietnamese sex workers to Singapore

This article proposes an ethnographic examination of the inner workings of unsanctioned informal networks that facilitate the circular migration and labour of Vietnamese sex workers to Singapore. These operations are coordinated by brokers who sell migration services to their clients. I conceptualise them as ‘quasi-family networks’ because kinship bonds, the fact that brokers (‘mothers’) and sex workers (‘daughters’) operate under the framework of a family ethos which allows them to establish intimate and unequal relationships, and socialising and reproductive processes inscribed in the family form, are defining structural features. The study of these organisational and operational traits allows us to consider a new network model in the field of transnational unsanctioned migration for sex work, and to discuss issues of network structure, adaptability and reproduction in repressive market environments in relation to the family form.     

Parental Self‐Efficacy for Reducing the Risk of Adolescent Depression and Anxiety: Scale Development and Validation

Burgeoning research suggests that parents can reduce the risk of anxiety and depression in their adolescents and that parental self‐efficacy (PSE) may be related to parental risk and protective factors for these disorders. As there are currently no measures available to assess PSE in relation to parenting behaviors that may reduce adolescent risk for depression and anxiety, we developed and validated a measure of PSE, the Parental Self‐Efficacy Scale (PSES). Using a sample of 359 parents and 332 adolescents (aged 12–15), the PSES was found to have high reliability, confirmatory factor analysis supported its validity, and most of the hypothesized relationships between the PSES and other measures of parenting practices and adolescent depressive and anxiety symptoms were supported.     

Strategic, sincere, and heuristic voting under four election rules: an experimental study

We report on laboratory experiments on voting. In a setting where subjects have single-peaked preferences, we find that the rational choice theory provides very good predictions of actual individual behavior in one-round and approval voting elections but fares poorly in explaining vote choice under two-round elections. We conclude that voters behave strategically as far as strategic computations are not too demanding, in which case they rely on simple heuristics (under two-round voting) or they just vote sincerely (under single transferable vote).     

A characterization of prudent choices

We define and axiomatize prudent choices for two criteria. Given two criteria, the alternatives chosen by the prudent choice procedure are the ones maximizing some composition of the criteria. This composition is such that (1) it contains the first criterion and a part of the second one, and (2) the new binary relation is not cyclic and cannot be enlarged with preferences of the second criterion without becoming cyclic. We also make the link between prudent choices, classical rational choices, sequentially rational choices (Manzini and Mariotti in Am Econ Rev 97(5):1824–1839, 2007a) and lexicographic binary choice rational choices (Tadenuma in J Econ Theory 104(2):462–472, 2002).     

Is India better off today than 15 years ago? A robust multidimensional answer

This paper provides a robust multidimensional normative evaluation of the growth episode that India has experienced in the last 15 years. Specifically, the paper compares the evolution, between 1987, 1995 and 2002, of the distribution of several individual attributes on the basis of ethically robust dominance criteria. The individual attributes considered are real consumption (measured at the individual level), literacy rate, under 5 mortality and violent crime rates (all measured at the district levels). District level variables are interpreted as (local) public goods which, along with consumption, contribute to individual well-being. The robust criteria used are generalizations, to more than two attributes, of the first and second order dominance criteria of Atkinson and Bourguignon (Rev Econ Stud 49:183–201, 1982) and coincide with the unanimity of utilitarian value judgements taken over a specific class of individual utility functions. The main result of the empirical analysis is that all utilitarian rankings of distributions of the four attributes that assume that individual utility functions satisfy the assumptions of second order dominance agree that India is better off in 2002 than in 1987 or 1995 but that these rankings disagree as to how to rank 1987 and 1995. Furthermore, if one removes crime from the list of attributes, the dominance is shown to apply steadily over the whole period.