Shift in re‐randomization distribution with conditional randomization test

Proschan, Brittain, and Kammerman made a very interesting observation that for some examples of the unequal allocation minimization, the mean of the unconditional randomization distribution is shifted away from 0. Kuznetsova and Tymofyeyev linked this phenomenon to the variations in the allocation ratio from allocation to allocation in the examples considered in the paper by Proschan et al. and advocated the use of unequal allocation procedures that preserve the allocation ratio at every step. In this paper, we show that the shift phenomenon extends to very common settings: using conditional randomization test in a study with equal allocation. This phenomenon has the same cause: variations in the allocation ratio among the allocation sequences in the conditional reference set, not previously noted. We consider two kinds of conditional randomization tests. The first kind is the often used randomization test that conditions on the treatment group totals; we describe the variations in the conditional allocation ratio with this test on examples of permuted block randomization and biased coin randomization. The second kind is the randomization test proposed by Zheng and Zelen for a multicenter trial with permuted block central allocation that conditions on the within‐center treatment totals. On the basis of the sequence of conditional allocation ratios, we derive the value of the shift in the conditional randomization distribution for specific vector of responses and the expected value of the shift when responses are independent identically distributed random variables. We discuss the asymptotic behavior of the shift for the two types of tests. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ukrainian Euromaidan protest: Dynamics,causes, and aftermath

In 2013–2014, Ukraine experienced an extraordinary episode of contentious politics, later called Maidan, Euromaidan, or the Revolution of Dignity. It was triggered by the government's refusal to sign the Association Agreement with the European Union, and grew into a nation‐wide social movement that demanded respect for human rights, a change of the political regime, and an end to endemic corruption. Protesters both in the capital and in the regions demanded deeper democracy and justice over the perceived harmful actions of the government. Following the unprecedented use of violence, leaving nearly a hundred dead, Euromaidan resulted in a change in the political regime, a return to pro‐European foreign policy, and an Antimaidan counter‐movement. Reacting to Kyiv events, Russia annexed Ukrainian Crimea and fueled a military conflict in eastern Ukraine. This article presents a short history of Euromaidan and a survey of the growing literature that has examined its conditions, dynamics, and outcomes.     

Uncertainty Assessment in the Quantification of Risk Rates of Occupational Accidents

Occupational risk rates per hour of exposure have been quantified for 63 occupational accident types for the Dutch working population. Data were obtained from the analysis of more than 9,000 accidents that occurred over a period of six years in the Netherlands and resulted in three types of reportable consequences under Dutch law: (a) fatal injury, (b) permanent injury, and (c) serious recoverable injury requiring at least one day of hospitalization. A Bayesian uncertainty assessment on the value of the risk rates has been performed. Annual risks for each of the 63 occupational accident types have been calculated, including the variability in the annual exposure of the working population to the corresponding hazards. The suitability of three risk measures—individual risk rates, individual annual risk, and number of accidents—is examined and discussed.     

Associations Between Behavioral Inhibition and Children's Social Problem‐solving Behavior During Social Exclusion

The current study examined the associations between the early childhood temperament of behavioral inhibition and children's displays of social problem‐solving (SPS) behavior during social exclusion. During toddlerhood (the ages of two to three), maternal report and behavioral observations of behavioral inhibition were collected. At the age of seven, children's SPS behaviors were observed during a laboratory social exclusion task based on the commonly used Cyberball game. Results showed that behavioral inhibition was positively associated with displayed social withdrawal and negatively associated with assertive behavior during the observed social exclusion task at seven years of age. These results add to our understanding of inhibited children's SPS behaviors during social exclusion and provide evidence for the associations between toddler temperament and children's social behavior during middle childhood.     

Unconventional Gas Development in the USA: Exploring the Risk Perception Issues

Unconventional gas development (UGD) is growing rapidly in the United States. Drawing on insights from risk perception and risk governance theories and recent public opinion surveys, we find that UGD is an emerging technology that is likely to be perceived as risky, even though objective risk assessments suggest that risks are low and controllable through best risk management practices. Perceived risk varies significantly depending on the state and locality but perceptions of risk appear to be increasing as the technology is used more widely in the United States and as organized opponents of the technology intensify their efforts. Risk perceptions are attenuated somewhat because of the perceived benefits of UGD and compensation schemes for individuals and communities. The types of triggering events necessary for large‐scale social amplification and stigmatization have not yet occurred but awareness of UGD is growing and organized opposition has been sufficient to cause prohibitions of UGD in some U.S. states and localities. Additional directions for social science research on public reactions to UGD are recommended.     

The Relations between Infant Negative Reactivity,Non‐maternal Childcare,and Children's Interactions with Familiar and Unfamiliar Peers

The present study examined the influence of children's experiences during non‐maternal childcare on their behavior toward unfamiliar peers. Participants included children classified as negatively reactive at four months of age (N = 52) and children not negatively reactive (N = 61), who were further divided into those who experienced non‐maternal care and those who did not. Children were observed during childcare at 24 months of age and in the laboratory with an unfamiliar peer at 24 and 36 months of age, where their wariness, dysregulation, and social engagement were assessed. Within the negatively reactive childcare group, children's positive interactions with peers during childcare at 24 months predicted lower levels of wariness toward an unfamiliar peer at 36 months. This relation was not significant for children not classified as negatively reactive. The findings suggest that the influence of non‐maternal childcare is dependent on a child's temperament and on the nature of peer interactions during care.     

Experience of Forced Sex and Subsequent Sexual,Drug, and Mental Health Outcomes: African American and Hispanic Women in the Southeastern United States

ABSTRACT. Objectives: This cross-sectional study examined African American and Hispanic women's (N = 1,509) self-reports of unwanted forced sex and its association with behavioral and mental health outcomes after the event. Methods: Twenty percent of the women had experienced forced sex (1st occurrence at age 15 years or younger for 10%, 1st occurrence at older than 15 years of age for 10%). Results: Regardless of when forced sex 1st occurred, women were more likely to have engaged in unprotected vaginal and anal sex, to have had multiple unprotected sex partners, to have sexually transmitted infections, to have reported binge drinking and illicit drug use, and to exhibit distress and have received mental health counseling. Conclusions: Forced sex may have wide-ranging behavioral and mental health consequences years later.     

Impact of Customer Traffic and Service Process Outsourcing Levels on e‐Retailer Operational Performance

Many service firms deliver services via a mix of internally developed and delivered (i.e., insourced) and externally developed and delivered (i.e., outsourced) service processes. Service process outsourcing is especially common in e‐retailing. Portions of e‐retail customer ordering processes and delivery processes can be digitized and contracted to third‐party vendors. Via outsourcing, service systems change from dyadic to triadic. Prior research examines consumer perceptions of dyadic (consumer to e‐retailer) outcomes, but little research considers service co‐delivery with outsourcing partners (i.e., triadic systems). Literature also does not focus on joint associations of service process outsourcing and customer traffic with e‐retailer operations. We analyze several years of data on North American e‐retailers. We first examine factors associated with e‐retailer outsourcing levels, for front‐end and back‐end service processes. We observe customer traffic is positively associated with future outsourcing. We then examine how outsourcing moderates associations between contemporaneous customer traffic and e‐retailer operational performance, as measured by numbers of processed orders, website response times, and customer satisfaction. Results suggest outsourcing levels are associated with operational outcomes, yet surprisingly, high outsourcing and high traffic jointly may not benefit e‐retailers.     

Subjective Well-Being and Armed Conflict: Evidence from Bosnia-Herzegovina

We analyze survey data from Bosnia and Herzegovina collected after the 1992–1995 Bosnian War to answer the following questions: How does individual subjective well-being evolve in the post-conflict period? Does exposure to conflict have an important role in determining one’s post-war experiences? Our identification strategy relies on regional and individual-level variation in exposure to the conflict. Individual war-related trauma has a negative, significant, and lasting impact on subjective well-being. The effect is stronger for those displaced during the war. Municipality-level conflict measures are not significantly associated with subjective well-being once municipality fixed effects are accounted for.     

Elite Interlocks in Three U.S. Sectors: Nonprofit, Corporate, and Government

This study traces elite interlocks between the economic, political, and civil sectors of the United States in the late 1990s. We assess integration and fragmentation through analyzing patterns of overlap and interaction among influential organizations and leaders in these sectors. Network analyses are conducted with UCINET 5 on the Elite Directors Database, a new data set composed of the directors/trustees for the largest organizations in the business and nonprofit sectors in addition to individuals holding positions on federal advisory committees. The complete data set contains individuals holding 3,976 seats from 100 businesses, 109 nonprofit organizations, and 98 government committees. The network structure reveals substantial linkages between organizations and elites within and across the three sectors. Major corporations and their directors are the best integrated in the intersectoral networks. In spite of the tremendous growth of the nonprofit sector, nonprofit organization linkages fail to offer compelling evidence of elite pluralism in the United States.