Testing and dating structural changes in copula-based dependence measures

This paper is concerned with testing and dating structural breaks in the dependence structure of multivariate time series. We consider a cumulative sum (CUSUM) type test for constant copula-based dependence measures, such as Spearman''s rank correlation and quantile dependencies. The asymptotic null distribution is not known in closed form and critical values are estimated by an i.i.d. bootstrap procedure. We analyze size and power properties in a simulation study under different dependence measure settings, such as skewed and fat-tailed distributions. To date breakpoints and to decide whether two estimated break locations belong to the same break event, we propose a pivot confidence interval procedure. Finally, we apply the test to the historical data of 10 large financial firms during the last financial crisis from 2002 to mid-2013.     

Leaders as role models: Effects of leader presenteeism on employee presenteeism and sick leave

ABSTRACT

There is a broad consensus that associations exist between leadership behaviour and employee health. However, much less is known about potential mediating processes underlying links between specific leader behaviours, for instance presenteeism (i.e. working while being ill), and indicators of employee health, such as sick leave. Integrating theories of social information processing, social learning, and the allostatic load hypothesis, we propose that employee presenteeism mediates the positive association between leader presenteeism and employee sick leave. This hypothesis was tested with a multilevel mediation model using three-wave longitudinal data from 74 leaders and their 412 team members across a time period of 22 months. As hypothesised, leader presenteeism had a positive effect on employee presenteeism which, in turn, had a positive effect on employee sick leave, controlling for baseline measures of employee presenteeism and sick leave, as well as employee general health status, shared workload and job autonomy, and demographic characteristics. Additionally, leader presenteeism had a positive indirect effect on employee sick leave through employee presenteeism. These results contribute to the occupational health psychology literature by suggesting that leader health-related behaviour can have consequences for employee health-related behaviour and employee health.     

A Case Study on the Informational Efficiency of Markets: The Market for Horse Racing in Australia

This paper describes a study of the informational efficiency of the thoroughbred horse racing market in Australia. It is based on the theory of stock market efficiency which explains the process by which information becomes reflected in share prices. In this paper, the theory is applied to the thoroughbred horse racing market to determine the predictive accuracy of alternative informative sources. The results obtained from the study are consistent with the underlying theory:(i) aggregated information (as reflected in a consensus of opinions) is a more accurate prediction of success than less information (as reflected in individual opinions), and;(ii) the most recent information (as reflected in race-time betting odds, known as starting prices) has greater predictive ability than less recent information (as reflected in an earlier consensus of opinions).The study examines predictive accuracy in a gambling context, but does not consider the profitability of alternative prediction processes.     

Rural - Urban relationships in Indonesia

Indonesia is also experiencing a rapid urbanization process. Social and economic factors are at work for the Javanese especially, and the Sundanese, who are migrating to the cities in large numbers. Apparently a major force underlying their movement is that the population density has exceeded the carrying capacity of the rural areas. This factor is also the cause of the large scale destruction of forests.It is warned that development projects in rural areas actually increase the population density of farmers per cultivated area and worsen the urbanization process and destruction of forecasts, if they do not provide jobs to the local populace.