Stochastic population models for the analysis of the effects of demographic processes on social security systems

The aim of this paper is to describe several methods for quantifying the amount of uncertainty inherent in population forecasts used to assess the impact of demographic processes on social security systems. Each method is briefly outlined, and its advantages and disadvantages are discussed. The primary emphasis is on stochastic population models, and the geographic focus is on the Federal Republic of Germany.     

如何将社会学作为伦理学来教授

一、哪些做法不对?社会学确实在许多大学生的心目中威信不高,他们时常认为:社会学令人厌烦地对一些明显的、过分抽象的和对生活用处不大的事理作过分冗长的讨论,是堪与经济学并列的最"乏味"的科学.我们的一些同行认为,产生这种看法的原因是社会学太专业化和科学化了.但我们认为原因远不止此.专业化的知识对于任何寻求更多地了解世界的科学来说,似乎是必不可少的和正当的目标.问题不在于教师对学生教授了什么,而在于哪些还没有传授给     

国际关系的研究方法

分析和认识任何一门社会科学其主要任务和目标就在于使人更好地认识世界,以便有效地作用于世界.从方法论观点看,在国际关系学这门如此年轻而复杂的学科中具有首要意义的是重新合理组织有关论述这一学科科学原理的科研活动.特别是指那些"有助于建立这一学     

技术:永久的浪潮

技术,现在已渗透于一切领域,与每个人都有关系.新的"高技术"产业吸引了宣传界的广泛注意.高技术产业极为重要,在该领域中落后的国家将成为一个"落后国家".但同样重要的是,大批的更为平凡而重要的其他发明创造也在诞生.几乎没有一件产品、一次加工、一种材料、一台设备没有得到重新设计和重新制造.技术不是第一次,不是第二次,也不是第三次浪潮,而是永久的浪潮.     

论当代政治小说

广为流传的政治小说和对它的理论研究之间存在着一种颇不协调的现象.近年来有关体裁方面的论著,大多对结构-类型体系、体裁-功能体系、体裁功能转换及分类这一类问题表现出浓厚的兴趣,而对政治小说则语焉不详.叶尔绍夫对苏联小说的分类最为全面,他把政治小说看作政论小说的一种.在人物描写、文体常项、文献利用诸手法上,两者确有相同的地方,但是,尽管"政论小说"的概念远比"政治小说"的概念宽,     

Temporary workers in Canada: a multifaceted program

"This article highlights important developments in the character of temporary worker flows to Canada between 1973 and 1985 through the use of unpublished data and new measures for analyzing this data. The number of employment authorizations are converted to person years to indicate the overall labor market impact of temporary worker flows and this measure is employed in an analysis of unpublished data from Employment and Immigration Canada. The analysis reveals that a significant and growing proportion of employment authorizations are exempted from governmental procedures which link the admission of temporary workers to the Canadian labor market." Reasons for these exemptions and policy implications are discussed     

Statistical materials. Part 3: fertility,mortality, and natural increase

In this one-page statistical summary, data are presented for the USSR as a whole on fertility, mortality, and natural increase. The data are for five-year intervals from 1940 to 1980 and for single years from 1980 and are presented in terms of both totals and rates.     

The text of the Articles of the International Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and Their Families which the Working Group Provisionally Agreed during the First Reading

This preamble documents the 91 Articles of the International Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrants and Their Families. This defines and covers the rights of all migrant workers and their families which can be ratified by as many countries as possible. The status and fundamental rights of migrant workers and their families have not been sufficiently recognized everywhere and therefore require appropriate international protection. The 8 parts are: 1) scope and definitions, 2) fundamental human rights of all migrant workers and members of their families, 3) additional rights of migrant workers and members of their families in a regular situation, 4) provisions applicable to particular categories of migrant workers and members of their families, 5) promotion of sound, equitable and humane conditions in connection with lawful international migration of workers and their families, 6) application of the Convention, 7) general provisions, and 8) final provisions.     

The nature and scope of international migration data in Nigeria

Nigeria, the largest country in Western Africa, has been attracting migrants from neighboring countries for the past decade or so. Although most of the movement of African migrants has occurred outside the regulatory framework set up to control migration, it is important to know the main elements of the latter to understand the likely limitations of the data collection systems currently in operation. Sources of data on international migration include censuses, arrival and departure statistics, work and resident permits, and sample surveys. The author concludes that, with the exception of information on residence and work permits, the relationship between Nigeria's data sources and the laws regulating migration is weak. Arrival and departure statistics, in particular, are not designed to distinguish migrants from all other international travellers. Lacking the political will to modify the system in accordance with internationally accepted recommendations, the prospects for increasing the usefulness of available data are grim.     

A generalization of Petersen's typology of migration

A typology of migration is presented that extends the one originally developed by William Petersen, which was based on ecological push, migration policy, people's aspirations, and social momentum. The proposed typology considers both the migrant's state of mind and two points in time. Examples of 36 migrant types are provided using data for Canada and selected other countries. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)