TALKING ABOUT PROBABILITIES: A LOGICAL PROBLEM FOR OR/MS

The correct interpretation of a natural language statement is determined as much by convention and shared meanings as by logical content. Therefore, when the word “probability” is used in the statement of a decision problem, the intended interpretation is not always clear. If such a statement also contains explicit probability formulae, confusion and even paradox may result. In this article, a problem involving cascaded inference is interpreted in four ways, three of which are regarded by the authors as legitimate or reasonable. The problem was originally suggested by Einhorn [3] and further discussed by Libby [10]. It is suggested here that a formal, mathematicist interpretation of the word “probability” might lead to inappropriate analyses of some decisions.     

Determining the minimum duration of treatment in tuberculosis: An order restricted non-inferiority trial design

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the biggest killers among infectious diseases worldwide. Together with the identification of drugs that can provide benefits to patients, the challenge in TB is also the optimisation of the duration of these treatments. While conventional duration of treatment in TB is 6 months, there is evidence that shorter durations might be as effective but could be associated with fewer side effects and may be associated with better adherence. Based on a recent proposal of an adaptive order-restricted superiority design that employs the ordering assumptions within various duration of the same drug, we propose a non-inferiority (typically used in TB trials) adaptive design that effectively uses the order assumption. Together with the general construction of the hypothesis testing and expression for type I and type II errors, we focus on how the novel design was proposed for a TB trial concept. We consider a number of practical aspects such as choice of the design parameters, randomisation ratios, and timings of the interim analyses, and how these were discussed with the clinical team.     

The effect of artificial light on bat richness and nocturnal soundscapes along an urbanization gradient in an arid landscape of central Peru

Urbanization usually reduces bat richness; however, the presence of green areas within cities and peripheral rural areas in arid ecosystems may provide microhabitats for some species. Light pollution is a major feature of urbanization, but its impact on bat behavior appears to be species-specific and previous studies have documented contrasting responses. Moreover, the effect of urbanization on bat species has been poorly studied in arid regions. We assessed the effect of artificial night light intensity (as a proxy of urbanization) on both bat occupancy and the acoustic space used (ASU) in an urbanization gradient in Peruvian central coast, based on passive acoustic recorders. We collected 26,169 recordings from 19 sites which resulted in 579 independent detections of 15 bat species. Variation in both ASU and species richness was best explained by artificial night light intensity. Species-specific effects of the artificial night light intensity based on a multi-species occupancy modeling showed that this covariate had a negative effect on occupancy for most of the bat species (12 species). ASU and both observed and posterior bat species richness were positively correlated, suggesting that ASU can be used as a proxy of bat richness. This study provides evidence that both bat richness and occupancy decrease with artificial light intensity; nevertheless, eight species used urban areas, similar to results found in other cities around the world.