ELICITING A DIRECTED ACYCLIC GRAPH FOR A MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES OF VEHICLE COUNTS IN A TRAFFIC NETWORK

The problem of modelling multivariate time series of vehicle counts in traffic networks is considered. It is proposed to use a model called the linear multiregression dynamic model (LMDM). The LMDM is a multivariate Bayesian dynamic model which uses any conditional independence and causal structure across the time series to break down the complex multivariate model into simpler univariate dynamic linear models. The conditional independence and causal structure in the time series can be represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). The DAG not only gives a useful pictorial representation of the multivariate structure, but it is also used to build the LMDM. Therefore, eliciting a DAG which gives a realistic representation of the series is a crucial part of the modelling process. A DAG is elicited for the multivariate time series of hourly vehicle counts at the junction of three major roads in the UK. A flow diagram is introduced to give a pictorial representation of the possible vehicle routes through the network. It is shown how this flow diagram, together with a map of the network, can suggest a DAG for the time series suitable for use with an LMDM.     

Plaid designs for the evaluation of training for medical practitioners

The training of medical practitioners to improve the practitioner/patient relationship may be difficult, as limitations often exist on the choice of patients included in the study. A specific study of this type of training is given. It is proposed that a simple modification and generalization of Yates' plaid-square designs be used. It is shown that a replicated plaid-design incorporates as a special case the criss-cross or strip-plot design. The usefulness of these designs in studies of the training of medical practitioners is illustrated. The basic characteristics of their analysis are outlined.     

Age Cohort, Ancestry, and Immigrant Generation Influences in Family Relations and Psychological Well-Being among Black Caribbean Family Members

Immigration is contributing to the U.S. population becoming increasingly ethnically diverse. This article examines the role of family relations and well-being among different generations of Black Caribbean immigrants. Family disruptions, such as migration, can have complex effects on the support networks and emotional well-being of family members. Data from a recently completed national study of American Blacks in the United States, however, reveal significant similarities across ancestry and immigrant status in family contact, solidarity and well-being. It is concluded that intrafamilial relations may serve to overcome barriers of geographical distance in providing comparable levels of contact, solidarity, and well-being for both U.S.-born and immigrant Black Caribbean family members of different generations. Because of the increasing numbers of immigrant elders, these sources of family support will become increasingly more important in bridging the gaps between government resources and needed assistance in an aging society.     

Negotiating the “Global” within the Global Playscapes of Mount Everest*

Within the anthropology of tourism, “tourist” and “local” are often used to conceptualize social relations constitutive of international tourism, where “First World” mobile subjects visit stationary “Third World” “Others.” Globalization, as both discourse and condition, is changing the contours and conceptualizations of tourist spaces. In this paper, I show how “the global” is negotiated by different subjects, and how recreational mountain climbers from Nepal negotiate their identities as “locals” as well as global, mobile, travel subjects within “the global playscapes” of Himalayan mountaineering. I suggest that the question of who can be a tourist within a globalizing world should be closely examined.     

Sets of alternatives as Condorcet winners

We characterize sets of alternatives which are Condorcet winners according to preferences over sets of alternatives, in terms of properties defined on preferences over alternatives. We state our results under certain preference extension axioms which, at any preference profile over alternatives, give the list of admissible preference profiles over sets of alternatives. It turns out to be that requiring from a set to be a Condorcet winner at every admissible preference profile is too demanding, even when the set of admissible preference profiles is fairly narrow. However, weakening this requirement to being a Condorcet winner at some admissible preference profile opens the door to more permissive results and we characterize these sets by using various versions of an undomination condition. Although our main results are given for a world where any two sets – whether they are of the same cardinality or not – can be compared, the case for sets of equal cardinality is also considered. Received: 15 March 2001/Accepted: 31 May 2002 This paper was written while Barış Kaymak was a graduate student in Economics at Boğazi?i University. We thank ?ağatay Kayı and İpek ?zkal-Sanver who kindly agreed to be our initial listeners. The paper has been presented at the Economic Theory seminars of Bilkent, Ko? and Sabancı Universities as well as at the Fifth Conference of the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory, July 2001, Ischia, Italy and at the 24^th Bosphorus Workshop on Economic Design, August 2001, Bodrum, Turkey. We thank Fuad Aleskerov, İzak Atiyas, ?zgür Kıbrıs, Semih Koray, Gilbert Laffond, Bezalel Peleg, Murat Sertel, Tayfun S?nmez, Utku ünver and all the participants. Remzi Sanver acknowledges partial financial support from İstanbul Bilgi University and the Turkish Academy of Sciences and thanks Haluk Sanver and Serem Ltd. for their continuous moral and financial support. Last but not the least, we thank Carmen Herrero and two anonymous referees. Of course we are the sole responsible for all possible errors.     

Case study in the Bayesian analysis of a cost‐effectiveness trial in the evaluation of health care technologies: Depression

We present a case study based on a depression study that will illustrate the use of Bayesian statistics in the economic evaluation of cost‐effectiveness data, demonstrate the benefits of the Bayesian approach (whilst honestly recognizing any deficiencies) with respect to frequentist methods, and provide details of using the methods, including computer code where appropriate. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Individualism vs Collectivism in Different Cultures: A cross-cultural study

In this study, individualism vs collectivism, in line with the work of Triandis in 1985, was assessed in two groups of male and female students, in Egypt and Germany. The results confirm the effect that cultural background has on individualist vs collectivist orientations in both of these cultures for male and female students. Men and women scored higher on individualism in Germany than in Egypt, whereas collectivism scores were higher in Egypt than in Germany. These findings are discussed in terms of general recommendations for intercultural interventions that discourage viewing people solely in terms of group membership, and instead as distinct individuals.     

Earnings of Chinese Immigrants in the Enclave and Mainstream Economy*

La documentation sur le sujet n'est pas décisive quant à savoir si léconomie ethnique enclavée enregistre un rendement économique comparable chez les travailleurs et les entrepreneurs immigrants à ceux qui se situent dans le courant économique principal. Les auteurs de cette étude utilisent des données du Recensement du Canada de 2001 sur la langue la plus utilisée au travail din de mesurer la participation des immigrants chinois à léconomie enclavée. Après les avoir comparés au capital humain ainsi qu'aux variations liées au travail et au milieu urbain, les résultats démontrent que le rendement est moins élevé chez les hommes et chez les femmes de l'enclave que celui des gens qui se trouvent dans le courant économique principal. Les caractéristiques de la langue et le type de travail qui s'effectue dans léconomie enclavée expliquent pourquoi le rendement y est inférieur à celui obtenu dans le courant économique principal. The literature in inconclusive as to whether the immigrant enclave economy offers returns to immigrant workers and entrepreneurs comparative to those in the mainstream economy. This study uses data from the 2001 Census of Canada on language most often used at work to measure enclave economy participation for Chinese immigrants. The findings show that returns are lower for men or women in the enclave than those in the mainstream economy, respectively, after controlling for human capital, work‐related and urban variations. Language features of and job type in the enclave economy explain why returns are inferior to that of the mainstream economy.