Risk Factors for Adolescent Pregnancy Reports Among African American Males

This study examined childhood and adolescent risk factors for males' reports of getting someone pregnant during adolescence. These questions were examined in an urban sample of 335 African American males involved in a prospective, longitudinal study. Childhood aggression significantly predicted reported pregnancies during adolescence. Boys who were stably aggressive across 3rd through 5th grades were at particularly high risk for reporting getting a female pregnant. Adolescent substance use and deviant peer involvement incrementally added to the prediction of pregnancy reports over and above the effects of childhood aggression. Adolescent aggressive problems did not contribute to reports of pregnancy once childhood aggression was accounted for in the model. These results highlight that precursors for males' pregnancy reports can be identified by as early as age 8. Findings also emphasize the importance of an expanded developmental focus to understand risk factors for adolescent pregnancy. The implications of these results are discussed for preventive interventions to reduce adolescent pregnancy.     

Bayesian estimation of cognitive decline in patients with alzheimer's disease

Recently, there has been great interest in estimating the decline in cognitive ability in patients with Alzheimer's disease. Measuring decline is not straightforward, since one must consider the choice of scale to measure cognitive ability, possible floor and ceiling effects, between-patient variability, and the unobserved age of onset. The authors demonstrate how to account for the above features by modeling decline in scores on the Mini-Mental State Exam in two different data sets. To this end, they use hierarchical Bayesian models with change points, for which posterior distributions are calculated using the Gibbs sampler. They make comparisons between several such models using both prior and posterior Bayes factors, and compare the results from the models suggested by these two model selection criteria.     

Die Gesellschaftliche Akzeptanz der Sozialhilfe

This article examines on which grounds the German population is willing to support a social policy program targeted towards minorities such as social assistance. Using our own survey data and applying linear regression analysis, we test several hypotheses concerning the influence of self-interest, justice- orientations, and victim-blaming attitudes towards welfare recipients on two indicators of support for social assistance. A central finding is that the effects can be interpreted in line with the concept of a “moral economy”, in that the justice orientations of the respondents as well as their attitudes towards welfare recipients correspond with the norms incorporated in the institutional architecture of social assistance.     

The Relation of Patterns of Coping of Inner–City Youth to Psychopathology Symptoms

This study provides empirical verification that variations in patterns of coping can explain current and future functioning of youth. The study evaluated the methods and styles of coping of inner–city youth and their relation to age, gender, ethnicity, stress levels, and internalizing and externalizing symptom levels. Three hundred seventy–two 12– to 16–year–old adolescents from inner–city schools (67.0% African American, 24.4% Hispanic; 53.41% males) participated. One hundred forty–nine were also included in a follow–up evaluation of the prospective relation of coping to functioning. A seven–factor model of coping methods was identified and found to be applicable across age groups, genders, and ethnic groups. The model was robust over time. Coping methods were categorized through cluster analysis into five styles. Styles were found to relate somewhat to demographic characteristics and stress levels. Controlling for demographic characteristics and stress levels, coping style related concurrently and prospectively to internalizing and externalizing symptom levels. Except in one instance, age, ethnicity, and gender did not interact with coping in predicting symptoms. Implications for further coping research and risk and intervention design are discussed.     

Prior Placements of Youth Admitted to Therapeutic Foster Care and Residential Treatment Centers: The Odyssey Project Population

Two samples of youth in the child welfare system were compared—youth entering residential treatment centers (RTCs) and youth entering therapeutic foster care (TFC). Three questions were addressed: (1) Where were youth living prior to the current placement? (2) Had youth been treated in other systems of care? (3) How many prior placements did youth have? Time 1 data of the national “Odyssey Project” developed by the Child Welfare League of America were used. The^.measure utilized was the child and family characteristics form (CFC). Results revealed that youth admitted to RTCs were more likely to be entering from other systems of care and stepping down to the RTC while youth entering TFCs were more likely to be entering from within the child welfare system and stepping up to a higher level of care. The results have implications for improving clinical practice and for the development of a cross-system perspective on serving troubled youth.     

A Non-Gaussian Spatial Process Model for Opacity of Flocculated Paper

ABSTRACT.  Product quality in the paper-making industry can be assessed by opacity of a linear trace through continuous production sheets, summarized in spectral form. We adopt a class of non-Gaussian stochastic models for continuous spatial variation to describe data of this type. The model has flexible covariance structure, physically interpretable parameters and allows several scales of variation for the underlying process. We derive the spectral properties of the model, and develop methods of parameter estimation based on maximum likelihood in the frequency domain. The methods are illustrated using sample data from a UK mill.     

The financing of retirement schemes, savings and growth

This article discusses the various elements affecting the choice between pay-as-you-go systems (with optional capital accumulation) and compulsory capital accumulation systems to finance retirement schemes. The choice of system depends not only on their performance, but also on other elements covered less frequently by analyses, such as the effect on real wages and the real equilibrium interest rate, and various possible imperfections (myopia, limits on debt levels). Attention is also given to the possible explanations for the chronic lack of savings and to how the choice of retirement system may be affected by the weight given to short-term considerations (the ways in which different systems react to economic or demographic fluctuations, for example).     

Minimizing attrition in longitudinal studies of special populations: An integrated management approach

Whilst statistical techniques are available to estimate effects for missing subjects in longitudinal designs, minimizing subject attrition is a major goal in longitudinal research. This may be particularly difficult when attempting to follow individuals who have special characteristics or disabilities. The Colorado Treatment Outcome Study, a longitudinal study of individuals with serious and persistent mental illness (SPMI), developed an integrated management approach that resulted in average re-contact rates of 95% in each follow-up year. This integrated management approach emphasized the partnership of all key parties to the research, including the community, the respondents, the field interviewers, and management. Guided by a set of values that emphasized respect for the respondent, confidentiality and community relationships, procedures were developed that included an information system, office protocols, staff selection, supervision, staff training, and subject location and engagement techniques. While each element is explicated with attention to special populations, it is their coordination and integration that is critical for success.