Correlates and Predictors of Lottery Play in the United Kingdom

Previous studies of lottery play have tended to adopt one particular approach, concentrating on demographic, personality, cognitive, or social aspects of play. Using the recently introduced United Kingdom National Lottery, this study investigated variables associated with all of these approaches within an overall integrative framework. In a community sample (N = 160), Lottery play was positively correlated with friends' Lottery play, Instants Lottery play, frequency of other gambling, and misunderstanding of Lottery probability, and negatively correlated with level of education. In a regression analysis, friends' Lottery play, Instants Lottery play, and education level were significant unique predictors of Lottery play, and a combination of these and other variables accounted for 38% of the variance in playing behavior. The results are discussed predominantly in terms of the nature of lotteries as a social activity.     

The Cognitive Psychology of Lottery Gambling: A Theoretical Review

Despite the current popularity of the UK National, psychologists have tended to neglect lottery play. This review provides a summary of current research findings and outlines the main cognitive theories of gambling as related to non-pathological lottery play. A discussion of various biases and irrational thinking patterns typically found in lottery gambling will be given. These will include the misunderstanding of lottery odds, a susceptibility to the gambler's fallacy and cognitive entrapment, a belief in hot and cold numbers, unrealistic optimism, a belief in personal luck, superstitious thinking, the illusion of control, the erroneous perception of near misses, a susceptibility to prize size and rollover effects, the framing of gambling outcomes and finally, the influence of social factors on lottery play. It is concluded that the psychology of lottery play needs a more unified theory which whilst largely cognitive in emphasis, should also incorporate social motivations such as those inherent in syndicate based lottery play.     

Gender and Clinical Pharmacy: The Career of an Occupational Ideology*

Cet article étudie le concept selon lequel, dans une profession en mutation, la pharmacie en l'occurrence, les femmes sont les principales personnes à transmettre les valeurs liées à la pharmacie clinique - une idéologic professionnelle prétendument instaurée afin de redonner sa place à la pharmacie dans la hiérarchie des professions. Si on constate la force des convictions des membres de la profession à l'endroit de la pharmacie clinique, on observe également que les femmes ne sont pas les premières à les dèfendre. Ni la socialisation des rapports entre les sexes ni une formation particulière en pharmacie n'ont rendu les femmes mieux disposées que les hommes à l'egard de la pharmacie clinique. Les divergences - et elles sont très importantes - au sein de la profession au sujet de la pharmacie clinique se font sentir selon les différents cadres de travail des pharmaciens et selon l'année d'obtention de leur permis d'exercice. Ce sont plus les lieux de travail que les rapports entre les sexes qui permettent de prévoir les attitudes à l'égard de la pharmacie clinique. Il semble done peu probable que le fait d'équilibrer le nombre d'hommes et de femmes dans un milieu de travail soit de nature à le faire évoluer. Quelle que soit, au départ, la conception des pharmaciennes à l'égard de leur profession, elle influe peu sur leur rapport à la pharmacie clinique. This paper explores the idea that in a changing profession, women are the principal value carriers of clinical pharmacy—an occupational ideology professedly developed to restore pharmacy's precarious standing in the occupational hierarchy. While the investigation uncovers considerable evidence for the vitality of clinical pharmacy beliefs among practitioners, women were not at the forefront of this trend. Neither general gender socialization nor specific pharmacy training has rendered females more sympathetic to clinical pharmacy than males. Differences within the pharmacy community regarding clinical pharmacy—and they are quite considerable— emanate from the varied work settings that practitioners occupy and their year of licensure. Attitudes to clinical pharmacy are better predicted by workplace than by gender. On the basis of our findings, it seems unlikely that balancing the number of men and women in an occupation or work organization will, in and of itself, change it. Whatever distinctive prior orientations to work that female pharmacists may hold, they have little impact upon how they think about clinical pharmacy.     

Crossover designs in the presence of carry-over effects from two factors

Experiments, used in the telecommunications industry and elsewhere, are considered that involve the simultaneous application of levels of two unrelated factors, treatments and stimuli, to each of several subjects in a succession of time periods. The existence is suspected of carry-over effects of treatments and stimuli, in the period immediately following the period of their application. Methods are given for the construction of separate sequences of treatments and of stimuli; these methods are based on the Latin squares of Williams and of Russell. In the resulting designs, the treatments and stimuli are either orthogonal or nearly orthogonal, and the coincidence of the direct and carry-over effects of each factor is either balanced or nearly balanced. The efficiencies of the designs are assessed by comparing the average variances of elementary contrasts in the levels of each factor with appropriate lower bounds.     

The Choice of Statistic on Which to Base Tight Upper Confidence Limits

We consider the problem of finding an upper 1 –α confidence limit (α < ½) for a scalar parameter of interest θ in the presence of a nuisance parameter vector ψ when the data are discrete. Using a statistic T as a starting point, Kabaila & Lloyd (1997) define what they call the tight upper limit with respect to T . This tight upper limit possesses certain attractive properties. However, these properties provide very little guidance on the choice of T itself. The practical recommendation made by Kabaila & Lloyd (1997) is that T be an approximate upper 1 –α confidence limit for θ rather than, say, an approximately median unbiased estimator of θ. We derive a large sample approximation which provides strong theoretical support for this recommendation.     

The binomial failure rate mixture model for common cause failure data from the nuclear industry

A model for the lifetime of a system is considered in which the system is susceptible to simultaneous failures of two or more components, the failures having a common external cause. Three sets of discrete failure data from the US nuclear industry are examined to motivate and illustrate the model derivation: they are for motor-operated valves, cooling fans and emergency diesel generators. To achieve target reliabilities, these components must be placed in systems that have built-in redundancy. Consequently, multiple failures due to a common cause are critical in the risk of core meltdown. Vesely has offered a simple methodology for inference, called the binomial failure rate model: external events are assumed to be governed by a Poisson shock model in which resulting shocks kill X out of m system components, X having a binomial distribution with parameters ( m , p ), 0< p <1. In many applications the binomial failure rate model fits failure data poorly, and the model has not typically been applied to probabilistic risk assessments in the nuclear industry. We introduce a realistic generalization of the binomial failure rate model by assigning a mixing distribution to the unknown parameter p . The distribution is generally identifiable, and its unique nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator can be obtained by using a simple iterative scheme.     

Presenting Uncertainty in Health Risk Assessment: Initial Studies of Its Effects on Risk Perception and Trust

Some analysts suggest that discussing uncertainties in health risk assessments might reduce citizens'perceptions of risk and increase their respect for the risk-assessing agency. We tested this assumption with simulated news stories varying simple displays of uncertainty (e.g., a range of risk estimates, with and without graphics). Subjects from Eugene, Oregon, read one story each, and then answered a questionnaire. Three studies tested between 180 and 272 subjects each. Two focus groups obtained more detailed responses to these stories. The results suggested that (1) people are unfamiliar with uncertainty in risk assessments and in science; (2) people may recognize uncertainty when it is presented simply; (3) graphics may help people recognize uncertainty; (4) reactions to the environmental problems in the stories seemed affected less by presentation of uncertainty than by general risk attitudes and perceptions; (5) agency discussion of uncertainty in risk estimates may signal agency honesty and agency incompetence for some people; and (6) people seem to see lower risk estimates (10^-6, as opposed to 10^-3) as less credible. These findings, if confirmed, would have important implications for risk communication.     

Reinvigorating stalled CQI efforts through physician involvement

Continuous quality improvement (CQI), loosely synonymous with total quality management (TQM), was designed for the comparatively simple world of industry. Now that the gurus of CQI have attempted--originally with full support of the Joint Commission on Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations (JCAHO)--to apply the industrial CQI model to hospitals, they've noticed something: The model doesn't work, and hospital CQI programs are faltering enough to persuade the Joint Commission to scale back its CQI accreditation requirements. One major shortcoming behind the performance to date of CQI in hospitals: Physicians don't fit into the industrial model of CQI. Physicians are too important, and too many programs are stalled, to continue to implement CQI as though physicians don't exist. The techniques described here should help to reinvigorate faltering programs, giving hospital management a chance to "do it right the second time."     

Genetic risk and reproduction

Research was conducted with women who had experience of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (Duchenne) in the family. Intensive, qualitative interviews were conducted with a two-generational sample of women. This paper concentrates on the reported experiences of women who became pregnant while being aware of medically defined genetic carrier risk. Three types of reproductive decision-making are identified: risk-taking, risk-refusing and risk modifying. It is argued that there is no simple relationship between women's genetic risk and their subsequent reproductive actions. Of more significance is the women's prior biographical experience, their interpretation of the information available to them, their definition of the situation, and their reproductive expectations. Genetic risk information, transmitted in the genetic counselling discourse, does not determine women's actions, which are accounted for in terms of an interpretative perspective.     

Block diagrams and splitting criteria for classification trees

Various aspects of the classification tree methodology of Breiman et al., (1984) are discussed. A method of displaying classification trees, called block diagrams, is developed. Block diagrams give a clear presentation of the classification, and are useful both to point out features of the particular data set under consideration and also to highlight deficiencies in the classification method being used. Various splitting criteria are discussed; the usual Gini-Simpson criterion presents difficulties when there is a relatively large number of classes and improved splitting criteria are obtained. One particular improvement is the introduction of adaptive anti-end-cut factors that take advantage of highly asymmetrical splits where appropriate. They use the number and mix of classes in the current node of the tree to identify whether or not it is likely to be advantageous to create a very small offspring node. A number of data sets are used as examples.