Is demography destiny? The role of structural and demographic factors in Australis past and future labour supply

Following the release of the Intergenerational Report, the Australian Treasury identified the levers to address the economic effects of demographic ageing as ‘the three Ps’: population, participation and productivity. To date, the first ‘P’, population, has been treated as an exogenous factor, with the common view being that there is very little that the government can do to supplant demographic ageing. Focusing upon labour supply, this paper shows how variation in Australia’s underlying demography can significantly alter Australia’s future labour supply. Although governments cannot redirect the cohort flow component of population ageing, much can be achieved in promoting growth of the labour supply by maintaining or increasing fertility (in the longer term), or increasing targeted migration (in the short to medium term). This paper also decomposes the relative role of cohort flow, changing demography and changing labour force participation on the growth of the labour supply over the past 20 years. Over this period, the entry of the baby boom generation (cohort flow) and increased labour force participation of women accounted for almost all of the growth in the labour force. Changing demography had very little effect. However, Australias future labour supply will not include a large increase in cohort flow (as caused by the baby boomers) or a very large increase in female labour force participation. Regardless of the assumptions used, labour supply growth will be considerably lower in the next and subsequent 20 years, when compared to the previous 20.     

The Importance of Identity in Policy: The Case For and Of Children

This article draws out one of the core reasons why children should be conceived as active agents in research, particularly policy‐related research. The main thesis is that policy inevitably projects and, to an extent, constitutes the subject identities of its intended objects — in this case, that of ‘children’. Drawing on several bodies of theory — the ‘new’ sociology of childhood, identity theory, ‘governmentality’ and theories of discourse — the article shows why not incorporating children’s voices is a problem for social policy, and suggests that the impact of their exclusion has the potential to render policy both inappropriate and non‐responsive.     

Conditional moving linear regression: Modeling the recruitment process for ALLHAT

Effective recruitment is a prerequisite for successful execution of a clinical trial. ALLHAT, a large hypertension treatment trial (N = 42,418), provided an opportunity to evaluate adaptive modeling of recruitment processes using conditional moving linear regression. Our statistical modeling of recruitment, comparing Brownian and fractional Brownian motion, indicates that fractional Brownian motion combined with moving linear regression is better than classic Brownian motion in terms of higher conditional probability of achieving a global recruitment goal in 4-week ahead projections. Further research is needed to evaluate how recruitment modeling can assist clinical trialists in planning and executing clinical trials.     

A further examination of antecedents of correctional staff life satisfaction

Working in corrections is not only a demanding job, but a socially important one. While a growing number of studies have examined how the work environment impacts the job stress, job satisfaction, and organizational commitment of staff, very few studies have examined how working in corrections impacts the life satisfaction of workers. The current study utilized OLS regression to examine the antecedents of life satisfaction among staff at a Midwestern private prison. Job satisfaction had a positive relationship with life satisfaction, while age, work on family conflict, family on work conflict, and job involvement all had statistically significant negative effects. Finally, perceptions of the level of financial rewards, job stress, organizational commitment, gender, race, educational level, tenure, supervisory status, position, marital status, and having children, all had non-significant associations with overall satisfaction with life.     

Interdistributional Income Inequality

Incomplete moments are used to characterize income inequality and provide the basis for interdistributional Lorenz curves. Four measures of interdistributional inequality are considered and seen to be related to an interdistributional welfare interpretation. Based upon these measures, there has been a significant secular decline in interdistributional inequality between blacks and whites over the past 30 years.     

The Age Difference Between Spouses: Variations among Developing Countries

Sub-national and cross-national variations in the age difference between spouses are investigated with data from the World Fertility Survey relating to 29 developing countries. Substantial variation within and between countries is evident. Analysis suggests that the relative age of prospective spouses is a factor taken into account in the marriage market. Observed variation in the age difference, within and between countries, cannot be explained as the simple by-product of the random matching of independently determined distributions of men's and women's ages at marriage. Certain age differences are avoided, others chosen more frequently. Preferred age differences appear to differ in the societies studied, however, and this variation can be directly interpreted in terms of two sets of factors: kinship structure and women's roles. The analysis also suggests that demographic determinants of the age difference, in particular age constraints on the pool of possible matches, are of less importance in explaining societal variations than are social structural factors.     

The Social Structuring of Mental Health over the Adult Life Course: Advancing Theory in the Sociology of Aging

The sociology of aging draws on a broad array of theoretical perspectives from several disciplines, but rarely has it developed its own. We build on past work to advance and empirically test a model of mental health framed in terms of structural theorizing and situated within the life course perspective. Whereas most prior research has been based on cross-sectional data, we utilize four waves of data from a nationally representative sample of American adults (Americans' Changing Lives Study) collected prospectively over a 15-year period and find that education, employment and marital status, as well as their consequences for income and health, effectively explain the increase in depressive symptoms after age 65. We also found significant cohort differences in age trajectories of mental health that were partly explained by historical increases in education. We demonstrate that a purely structural theory can take us far in explaining later life mental health.