The impact of AIDS on income and human capital

This paper studies the impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita income and education. It explores two channels on how HIV/AIDS affects income that have not been sufficiently stressed by previous literature: the reduction of the incentives to stay in school due to shorter expected longevity and the reduction in productivity of experienced workers. In the model, individuals live for three periods, may get infected in the second period, and with some probability die of AIDS before reaching the third period of their lives. Parents care for the welfare of the future generations so that they will maximize lifetime utility of their dynasty. The simulations predict that the most affected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa in the future will be, on average, 30% poorer than they would be without AIDS. Schooling will decline in some cases by 40%. These figures are dramatically reduced with widespread medical treatment, as it increases the survival probability and productivity of infected individuals.     

Crisis nursery effects on child placement after foster care

The results of a study of the relationship between receiving crisis nursery services and the placement outcomes for young children leaving the child welfare system in Illinois are reported in this paper. The placement outcomes for children leaving foster care whose families received crisis nursery support prior to the children's placement in foster care is compared to the placement outcomes for children whose families received only foster care services. The children in two samples were identified by matching crisis nursery children's data from FY 2006 with children's data in the Illinois Child Abuse and Neglect Tracking System and Children Youth and Services Information System databases. After children served by crisis nursery and foster care services were identified, a comparison group of children with like-characteristics whose families received only foster care services was identified using propensity score matching. The children were followed until their out-of-home placement was terminated or until June 30, 2009. The placement outcomes and the length of stay were compared for the two groups. Using logistical regression analysis the results showed that children whose families received crisis nursery services prior to foster care placement were twice as likely to be reunited with their biological families (birth or extended family members) when compared to children whose families received only foster care services. The difference in the length-of-stay in foster care was not statistically significant when the two groups were compared. This preliminary study using administrative data shows that receiving crisis nursery services may have positive effects on the children's ultimate placement outcome after foster care. Additional research is needed to further explore the relationship between placement outcome and crisis nursery services.     

Alcohol- and drug-involved driving in the United States: methodology for the 2007 National Roadside Survey

This article describes the methodology used in the 2007 U.S. National Roadside Survey to estimate the prevalence of alcohol- and drug-impaired driving and alcohol- and drug-involved driving. This study involved randomly stopping drivers at 300 locations across the 48 continental U.S. states at sites selected through a stratified random sampling procedure. Data were collected during a 2-hr Friday daytime session at 60 locations and during 2-hr nighttime weekend periods at 240 locations. Both self-report and biological measures were taken. Biological measures included breath alcohol measurements from 9,413 respondents, oral fluid samples from 7,719 respondents, and blood samples from 3,276 respondents.     

Representing preorders with injective monotones

Theory and Decision - We introduce a new class of real-valued monotones in preordered spaces, injective monotones. We show that the class of preorders for which they exist lies in between the class...     

ON THE RELATIVE EFFICIENCY OF PERFORMANCE PAY AND NONCONTINGENT INCENTIVES

We report evidence from a large field experiment that compares the effectiveness of contingent and noncontingent incentives in eliciting costly effort for a large range of payment levels. The company with which we worked sent 7,250 letters asking customers to complete a survey. Some letters promised to pay amounts ranging from $1 to $30 upon compliance (contingent incentives), whereas others already contained the money in the request envelopes (noncontingent incentives). Compared to no payment, very small contingent payments lower the response rate while small noncontingent payments raise the response rate. As expected, response rates rise with the size of the incentive offered. The response rate in the noncontingent incentives rises more rapidly for low amounts of incentive, but then flattens out and reaches lower levels than under contingent payments. We discuss how the optimal policy regarding the use of each size and type of incentives crucially depends on firms’ objectives.     

Psychological Distress in Older Portuguese Gay and Bisexual Men: The Mediating Role of LGBT Community Connectedness

Abstract

Objectives: Examining Psychological Distress (PD) among older Portuguese gay and bisexual men (GBM), and the mediator role of LGBT community connectedness (LGBTCC) of minority stress variables on PD. Methods: We performed a mediation analysis with LGBTCC as mediator between minority stress variables and PD with a sample of 110 elderly GBM. Results: We found moderate PD levels; LGBTCC was a significant mediator between concealment of sexual orientation and PD, but not between internalized stigma and expectations of rejection and PD. Conclusions: More attention is needed to Older Portuguese GBM’s mental health. LGBTCC is an important ameliorating factor for older GBM.     

Particle learning for Bayesian semi-parametric stochastic volatility model

This article designs a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm for estimation of Bayesian semi-parametric Stochastic Volatility model for financial data. In particular, it makes use of one of the most recent particle filters called Particle Learning (PL). SMC methods are especially well suited for state-space models and can be seen as a cost-efficient alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), since they allow for online type inference. The posterior distributions are updated as new data is observed, which is exceedingly costly using MCMC. Also, PL allows for consistent online model comparison using sequential predictive log Bayes factors. A simulated data is used in order to compare the posterior outputs for the PL and MCMC schemes, which are shown to be almost identical. Finally, a short real data application is included.     

Goodness-of-Fit Tests for the Skew-Normal Distribution When the Parameters Are Estimated from the Data

In this article, tests are developed which can be used to investigate the goodness-of-fit of the skew-normal distribution in the context most relevant to the data analyst, namely that in which the parameter values are unknown and are estimated from the data. We consider five test statistics chosen from the broad Cramér–von Mises and Kolmogorov–Smirnov families, based on measures of disparity between the distribution function of a fitted skew-normal population and the empirical distribution function. The sampling distributions of the proposed test statistics are approximated using Monte Carlo techniques and summarized in easy to use tabular form. We also present results obtained from simulation studies designed to explore the true size of the tests and their power against various asymmetric alternative distributions.