WHY THE DEMOCRAT-REPUBLICAN PARTISANSHIP GAP VARIES FROM POLL TO POLL

Polls taken in late 1980 and 1984 varied by up to 20 pointsin the spread they reported between Democratic and Republicanidentifiers. We found three systematic and sizable differencesacross polls: polls that sample only voters, polls that emphasize"today" or the present in their question wording, and pollsthat are taken close to election day (at least in circumstanceslike those of 1984) tend to favor the party currently advantagedin the presidential race.     

Poisson regression with misclassified counts: application to cervical cancer

"Errors in disease classification can give misleading inferences for covariate effects when the probability of error is itself related to the covariates. More accurate inferences are possible using supplemental data on both true and fallible disease counts at various covariate levels. We present a method for incorporating such supplemental data into disease rate regression and use it to show that, although observed intercountry differences in European cervical cancer mortality rates are exaggerated by errors in death certification, they are not completely explained by such errors." The data concern Belgium, England and Wales, France, and Italy.     

The influence of peers and parents on youth life satisfaction in Hong Kong

This investigation attempts to measure the relative influence of peer and parental influence on the perceived life satisfaction of two groups of secondary students in Hong Kong. Data on 1906 students from 30 schools were collected through the use of a self-administered questionnaire. Respondents were asked to rate their level of satisfaction on 26 different domains of life on a seven-point scale, ranging from very satisfied to very dissatisfied, as well as their satisfaction with life in general. These 26 items were combined to form six summary indices of life satisfaction: school life, family life, acceptance by others, government, media, and living environment. Two independent variables were used in the analysis of life satisfaction: peer orientation, and parent orientation. Both are composite indices and measure the adolescent's attachment to and identification with his peers or parents. It was found that parent orientation is a better predictor of life satisfaction than peer orientation. Adolescents who are high on parent orientation are more satisfied with every domain of life. They are also more satisfied with life in general. The relationship between peer orientation and life satisfaction is not a clear-cut one. Adolescents with strong peer orientation are more satisfied with school, media, government, and acceptance by others, but are less satisfied with family. There is no significant relationship between peer orientation and environment. The younger adolescents in our sample tend to perceive a higher level of satisfaction than the older adolescents in every domain of life as well as life in general.     

Marriage and conjugal roles in Swaziland: persistence and change

"This paper examines one set of relationships central to the Swazi household--marriage and conjugal roles--and how those relationships have changed over the last half century. Information has been analyzed on such topics as types of marriages contracted, the age at marriage, choice of spouse, attitudes towards and participation in polygyny, the nature of conjugal roles, and the question of divorce. This study has drawn upon a wide range of sources including (1) an analysis of civil records from the office of the District Commissioner in Manzini, Swaziland; (2) data collected previously by other social scientists; and (3) survey data gathered especially for this study. The study concludes that while changes have occurred, many traditional patterns of marriage and family continue to be important in contemporary Swazi society."     

The seasons of a CEO's tenure

This article proposes a model of the dynamics of the CEO's tenure in office. The central argument is that there are discernible phases, or seasons, within an executive's tenure in a position, and that these seasons give rise to distinct patterns of executive attention, behavior, and, ultimately, organizational performance. The five delineated seasons are (a) response to mandate, (b) experimentation, (c) selection of an enduring theme, (d) convergence, and (e) dysfunction. The theoretical and practical implications of the model are discussed.     

Migration,race and ethnicity, 1960-1980

"This article compares racial and ethnic patterns in interstate and interregional migration in the years 1960 to 1980.... This research looks at geographical assimilation--the extent to which patterns of migration and regional distribution of minority groups resemble those of whites. Attention is directed to United States-born Asian Americans, blacks, Hispanics, Native Americans and whites, and attempts to answer the following questions: 1) To what extent do the patterns of interstate migration of these groups resemble one another? 2) To what extent do the regional distributions and patterns of net regional migration of these groups resemble one another?" This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1988 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 54, No. 3, Fall 1988, p. 495).     

Problems in measuring role strains and social functioning in relation to psychological symptoms

The problems that people experience in social roles can be regarded as either causes or consequences of psychological symptoms. To reflect one of these possibilities, Pearlin et al. (1981) developed measures of "role strains" which are considered sources of psychopathology. To reflect the other position, Dohrenwend et al. (1981) constructed measures of "role functioning" which are seen as consequences of psychopathology. We show that the measures developed by these two teams of investigators are similar in content and show substantial empirical overlap despite the different meanings attributed to them. In an effort to understand whether these highly correlated measures assess, "role strain" or "role functioning," we conduct an exploratory analysis of marital and housework role problems, using a small panel sample of New York City residents. Specifically, we use instrumental variables to identify reciprocal effects between psychological distress and each role area. We find that the relationship between housework role problems and distress is more consistent with Pearlin et al.'s interpretation, whereas the relationship between marital problems and distress is more consistent with that of Dohrenwend et al. Investigators interested in measuring either role strain or role functioning must bear in mind the strong possibility of contamination from the other construct.