ESTIMATING A PARAMETER WHEN IT IS KNOWN THAT THE PARAMETER EXCEEDS A GIVEN VALUE

In some statistical problems a degree of explicit, prior information is available about the value taken by the parameter of interest, θ say, although the information is much less than would be needed to place a prior density on the parameter's distribution. Often the prior information takes the form of a simple bound, ‘θ > θ₁ ’ or ‘θ < θ₁ ’, where θ₁ is determined by physical considerations or mathematical theory, such as positivity of a variance. A conventional approach to accommodating the requirement that θ > θ₁ is to replace an estimator, , of θ by the maximum of and θ₁. However, this technique is generally inadequate. For one thing, it does not respect the strictness of the inequality θ > θ₁ , which can be critical in interpreting results. For another, it produces an estimator that does not respond in a natural way to perturbations of the data. In this paper we suggest an alternative approach, in which bootstrap aggregation, or bagging, is used to overcome these difficulties. Bagging gives estimators that, when subjected to the constraint θ > θ₁ , strictly exceed θ₁ except in extreme settings in which the empirical evidence strongly contradicts the constraint. Bagging also reduces estimator variability in the important case for which is close to θ₁, and more generally produces estimators that respect the constraint in a smooth, realistic fashion.     

Agreement and discrepancy between children,parents, and social workers on school‐based effort avoidance in child welfare services

A multiperspective approach is beneficial for obtaining reliable and multifaceted pictures of child behaviour problems. The goal of the present study is to examine interrater agreement on school‐based effort avoidance between children receiving child welfare services, parents, and social workers. Given previous findings, interrater agreement is expected to be low. Self‐reported data on school‐based effort avoidance were gathered for children and adolescents in child welfare services. Additionally, social workers (using the Teacher‐Report Checklist for social and learning behaviour) and parents (using the parallel version of the self‐rating questionnaire on school‐based effort avoidance) were asked to complete an external assessment tool to compare children's perspectives with the ratings of significant adults. The results confirmed significant discrepancies between parents' and children's ratings on effort avoidance tendencies. Furthermore, there were only small to moderate correlations between children's self‐ratings and the adults' assessments; however, the consensus between adults was higher than the interrater agreement between children and social workers. Discrepancies in ratings from multiple informants underline the importance of integrating multiple perspectives, especially children's perspectives, in the diagnostic process in order to plan and adapt appropriate care and treatment.     

Who is leading the campaign charts? Comparing individual popularity on old and new media

Attention in the mass media is seen as crucial for electoral success. However, most ordinary candidates hardly get any attention in the news. With social media outlets becoming ever more popular, the question is whether the overall asymmetry in attention for candidates still holds today. Do candidates who dominate the traditional media during the campaign also dominate the social media? Or can candidates make up for a lack of mass media coverage by attracting attention on these new media platforms? This paper aims to answer these questions by pairing Twitter activity and Twitter popularity with newspaper attention for a large number of individual candidates in the 2014 Belgian election campaign. We expand the normalization versus equalization debate by not only looking at how much a new medium is used, but also at its success in terms of popularity and audience reach. Our findings show that the two platforms are indeed related, mainly because a small political elite dominates both old and new media. Twitter popularity and Twitter activity (albeit to a lesser extent) are higher among powerful politicians. We elaborate on why these findings are so much in line with the normalization hypothesis.     

High-intensity interval training (HIIT) increases insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) in sedentary aging men but not masters’ athletes: an observational study

Introduction: The aim of this investigation was to examine the impact high-intensity interval training (HIIT) on serum insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) in active compared with sedentary aging men.

Methods: 22 lifetime sedentary (SED; 62?±?2 years) and 17 masters’ athletes (LEX; 60?±?5 years) were recruited to the study. As HIIT requires preconditioning exercise in sedentary cohorts, the study required three assessment phases; enrollment (phase A), following preconditioning exercise (phase B), and post-HIIT (phase C). Serum IGF-I was determined by electrochemiluminescent immunoassay.

Results: IGF-I was higher in LEX compared to SED at baseline (p?=?0.007, Cohen’s d?=?0.91), and phase B (p?=?0.083, Cohen’s d?=?0.59), with only a small difference at C (p?=?0.291, Cohen’s d?=?0.35). SED experienced a small increase in IGF-I following preconditioning from 13.1?±?4.7 to 14.2?±?6.0?μg·dl^?1 (p?=?0.376, Cohen’s d?=?0.22), followed by a larger increase post-HIIT (16.9?±?4.4?μg·dl^?1), which was significantly elevated compared with baseline (p?=?0.002, Cohen’s d?=?0.85), and post-preconditioning (p?=?0.005, Cohen’s d?=?0.51). LEX experienced a trivial changes in IGF-I from A to B (18.2?±?6.4 to 17.2?±?3.7?μg·dl^?1 [p?=?0.538, Cohen’s d?=?0.19]), and a small change post-HIIT (18.4?±?4.1?μg·dl^?1 [p?=?0.283, Cohen’s d?=?0.31]). Small increases were observed in fat-free mass in both groups following HIIT (p?d?=?0.32–0.45).

Conclusions: In conclusion, HIIT with preconditioning exercise abrogates the age associated difference in IGF-I between SED and LEX, and induces small improvements in fat-free mass in both SED and LEX.     

Cracking the Code—An Approach to Developing Professional Writing Skills

The development of writing skills sufficient to meet the complexities of contemporary social work practice is a growing demand from employers and practice educators. The paper explores current pedagogical debate relating to student support and the development of writing skills and relates this debate to meeting the needs of social work students engaged in practice learning and professional practice. A number of questions are raised about current social work education in England and the needs of students entering from non-traditional academic backgrounds facing the increasingly rigorous demands of professional report writing. The discussion is then grounded in a practice example of staff from a university social work course and education guidance service working together to meet student need in respect of developing writing skills. The development, implementation and evaluation of a university writing skills programme for social work students are explored. The paper concludes by setting out a range of challenges arising from experience of the programme and a consideration of theory, and points to potential ways forward based on a social practice approach to teaching writing skills.