Who Reaps the Benefits,Who Bears the Risks? Comparative Optimism,Comparative Utility,and Regulatory Preferences for Mobile Phone Technology

Although the issue of risk target (e.g., self, others, children) is widely acknowledged in risk perception research, its importance appears underappreciated. To date, most research has been satisfied with demonstrating comparative optimism, i.e., lower perceived risk for the self than others, and exploring its moderators, such as perceived controllability and personal exposure. Much less research has investigated how the issue of target may affect benefit perceptions or key outcomes such as stated preferences for hazard regulation. The current research investigated these issues using data from a public survey of attitudes toward mobile phone technology (N= 1,320). First, results demonstrated comparative optimism for this hazard, and also found moderating effects of both controllability and personal exposure. Second, there was evidence of comparative utility, i.e., users believed that the benefits from mobile phone technology are greater for the self than others. Third, and most important for policy, preferences for handset regulation were best predicted by perceptions of the risks to others but perceived benefits for the self. Results suggest a closer awareness of target can improve prediction of stated preferences for hazard regulation and that it would be profitable for future research to pay more attention to the issue of target for both risk and benefit perceptions.     

伦理经济原理与市场经济伦理

伦理学和经济学仿佛是互有敌意的兄弟。说它们是兄弟,因为它们都是关于人的行动和决策的理论,都关心行动和决策的合理性和正确性。说它们互有敌意,因为它们的规范性内容似乎是互相矛盾的,伦理学追求至善,而经济学追求效率,至善的东西未必有效率,有效率的东西未必至善;追求至善的好心人未必总是得到好报,追求效率的坏人未必总是得到恶报。怎样解决两者之间的这种矛盾,伦理经济提出了若干基本原理,其中最重要的有:善的三重性(道德、效果和效率)原理;伦理经济的双重性(经济和伦理性质)原理;作为伦理学经济的伦理经济原理(如道德利益相容性原理、普遍利益权重原理等);作为市场经济的伦理预设的伦理经济原理(如契约第三方原理、双重效应原理、超动机原理等)。     

Forecasting the market for ships

Product development and market penetration strategy rely on dependable forecasts. Market segmentation is necessary for finding profitable niches. The paper describes macro- forecasts in the maritime sector divided by nine ship types. Balance between supply and demand is calculated with dynamic models. Demand for transportation depends on the development of world trade. Supply of transportation capacity depends on present fleet size, future contracting, scrapping and productivity.     

DIY culture and extended milieux: LETS, veggie boxes and festivals

The wave of DIY culture and environmental innovation sweeping through the UK is not restricted to isolated sites of high profile protest, such as the Newbury bypass. Based on fieldwork in the South West of England, consisting of in-depth interviews, participant observation, focus groups and a postal survey, we argue that networks such as those around festivals, LETS and organic food box schemes contribute to green milieux, which encourage ecological and cultural innovation of everyday life. We suggest that this creative social and ecological margin may be viewed as extended milieux combining global and local aspects. Local social relations and identities are reconfigured in new reflexive ways that utilize, criticise and even contribute to globalization, while developing new senses of locality and community.     

Impact of methods for reducing respondent burden on personal network structural measures

We examine methods for reducing respondent burden in evaluating alter–alter ties on a set of network structural measures. The data consist of two sets, each containing 45 alters from respondent free lists: the first contains 447 personal networks, and the second 554. Respondents evaluated the communication between 990 alter pairs. The methods were (1) dropping alters from the end of the free-list, (2) randomly dropping alters, (3) randomly dropping links, and (4) predicting ties based on transitivity. For some measures network structure is captured with samples of less than 20 alters; other measures are less consistent. Researchers should be aware of the need to sample a minimum number of alters to capture structural variation.     

Floating ideas—An experiment in enhancing hypergames with maps

Within the OR community, an increasing emphasis is being placed on developing approaches to tackle complex, ‘messy’ decision problems. The work described in this paper arose out of the premise that it would be desirable to integrate ideas from a number of different approaches of this type. Specifically, the paper describes one experimental attempt to link methods for modelling conflict situations (the analysis of options and hypergames) with the cognitive mapping approach to eliciting subjective data. Taking a personally-owned decision problem, mapping was used to enrich the game-based approaches by providing a way of documenting the argumentation underlying the models used. Though difficult to generalise from, the experiment not only suggested that such an extension is likely to be an improvement, but also highlighted some deficiencies in the existing versions of the game-based approaches themselves.     

ON BOOTSTRAP HYPOTHESIS TESTING

We describe methods for constructing bootstrap hypothesis tests, illustrating our approach using analysis of variance. The importance of pivotalness is discussed. Pivotal statistics usually result in improved accuracy of level. We note that hypothesis tests and confidence intervals call for different methods of resampling, so as to ensure that accurate critical point estimates are obtained in the former case even when data fail to comply with the null hypothesis. Our main points are illustrated by a simulation study and application to three real data sets.     

India's Falling Sex Ratios

The proportion of females in India's population, low compared to other countries, reached its lowest level this century in the 1991 census. India's low sex ratios—defined here as the number of females relative to the number of males—have been scrutinized for well over a century. The persistent decline in the twentieth century has been the subject of renewed investigation and critical comment over the past two decades. While many explanations for the decline have been offered, almost without exception these have not addressed the causes of the nearly continuous fall observed since 1901. Several possible long-term changes are investigated in this note. The author argues that India's declining sex ratio is primarily an artifact of the dynamics of India's population growth.