Estimating detailed distributions from grouped sociodemographic data: ‘get me started in’ curve fitting using nonlinear models

In much demographic analysis, it is important to know how occurrence-exposure rates or transition probabilities vary continuously by age or by time. Often we have coarse or fluctuating data so there can be a need for estimation and smoothing. Since the distributions of rates or counts across age or another variable are often curved, a nonlinear model is likely to be appropriate. The main focus of this paper is on the estimation of detailed information from grouped data such as age and income bands; however, the methods we outline could also be applied to other settings such as smoothing rates where the original data are ragged. The ability to carry out curve fitting is a very useful skill for population geographers and demographers. Curve fitting is not well covered in statistics textbooks, and whilst there is a large literature in journals thoroughly discussing the detail of functions which define curves, these texts are likely to be inaccessible to researchers who are not specialists in mathematics. We aim here to make nonlinear modelling as accessible as possible. We demonstrate how to carry out nonlinear regression using SPSS, giving stepped-through hypothetical and research examples. We note other software in which nonlinear regression can be carried out, and outline alternative methods of curve fitting.     

Advantages of a wholly Bayesian approach to assessing efficacy in early drug development: a case study

This paper illustrates how the design and statistical analysis of the primary endpoint of a proof‐of‐concept study can be formulated within a Bayesian framework and is motivated by and illustrated with a Pfizer case study in chronic kidney disease. It is shown how decision criteria for success can be formulated, and how the study design can be assessed in relation to these, both using the traditional approach of probability of success conditional on the true treatment difference and also using Bayesian assurance and pre‐posterior probabilities. The case study illustrates how an informative prior on placebo response can have a dramatic effect in reducing sample size, saving time and resource, and we argue that in some cases, it can be considered unethical not to include relevant literature data in this way. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Challenge of leading in Javanese culture

Scholars in the field of management and culture have developed paradigms regarding the importance of managing people across culture. While most scholars agree that culture plays a vital role in an organization, it has been recognized that research on the sub-cultures within a national culture that impact on an organization, is very limited. One example is the impact of Javanese culture in Indonesian organizations' environments. Indonesia is widely known as a multicultural country, with a population made up of people from approximately 364 ethnicities. Of these ethnicities, the Javanese have come to be recognized over time as the most culturally and politically dominant in Indonesia. The exploration of Javanese culture and its development over time are the central concerns of this article. The values central to Javanese culture are identified and the relationship between these values and Western perspectives of management practices such as communication, change management, and conflict management are discussed.     

Ranking football players

The Actim index is the official player rating system of the Barclays Premiership, which was introduced for the 2004–2005 football season. It was devised by Ian McHale and Phil Scarf for the Press Association in partnership with the Premier League and Football Data Co. Here they describe the development of the index and take a look at player performance this season.     

Preventive planning for disasters

The authors have analysed the available data on disaster occurence and conclude that disasters are on the increase, especially in underdeveloped countries. They argue that a new approach to disaster is needed, one which emphasizes the continuing man-environment relationship. Within this approach, planning to prevent disaster should concentrate on long-term precautionary planning integrated into development planning utilizing, as far as possible, local awareness of the disaster problem. This long-term approach to disaster planning is a more effective way of offsetting disaster than a heavy emphasis on each individual disaster event and the relief measures which accompany it.