Missing the Target? Correspondence of Fertility Intentions and Behavior in the U.S.

Building on a framework suggested by Bongaarts (2001)and using data from the 1979 National LongitudinalSurvey of Youth, we describe the correspondencebetween intended family size and observed fertilityfor the 1957 to 1961 birth cohorts of U.S. women andmen. Over an 18-year period (1982–2000), we showthat while aggregate intentions are quite stable,discrepancies are very common at the individual level.Women and men were more likely to err in predictingnumber of additional births in the period 1982–2000 thanto hit their target number. A very strong predictor of over-and underachieving fertility is initial intended parity. Thosewho intended more than two children tended to have fewerchildren than intended, while those who intended fewer thantwo children tended to have more children than intended. Inaddition and consistent with life course arguments, thoseunmarried in 1982, childless in 1982, and (for women) stillin school in 1982 were most likely to underachieve their 2000intended parity (i.e., have fewer children than intended). Weconclude by reflecting on how the circumstances that allowdiscrepancies between intentions and behavior to almost``balance'' in the U.S. may cumulate differently elsewhere toproduce much lower fertility.     

One Agency's Use of Risk Assessment and Risk Communication1

Few organizations have the courage to evaluate their own use of risk assessment (identifying hazards and estimating their probability and magnitude) and risk communication (interacting with internal and external stakeholder groups about risks). The USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) wants to enhance its overall risk analysis process for managing a wide range of risks to animals, plants, and human health. We gathered survey data for a baseline of APHIS professionals’ understanding and use of risk assessment and risk communication. APHIS professionals spend a surprisingly large share of their time communicating about risks. They perceive that risk estimates influence decisions, but that risk estimates should have more influence. Respondents reported little opposition to APHIS risk management decisions, and little use of channels such as USDA Extension Service for disseminating risk messages. Substantial variance across responses is explained mostly by differences in the roles of the 11 work units (now 10) within the agency. Location also contributes to the variance. Demographic variables seem less important.     

The accelerative and integrative use of marketing public relations in Cyprus

This paper concerns the development of marketing public relations (MPR) and its usage, relevance and significance in Cyprus. By case and interview research, the findings show movement, toward and emphasis upon MPR which is perceived to be more cost effective and efficient in achieving campaign objectives.     

Measuring work stressors: The role of frequency, duration, and demand

In recent years a number of authors have suggested that progress towards a better understanding of the stressor-stress relationship can only be achieved by altering the way in which work stress is investigated. One strategy is to investigate what it is we are measuring when we assess work stressors. More particularly there is a need to use rating scales that measure demand associated with work roles rather than just imply it. Dimensions such as frequency, duration, and level of demand were measured in addition to the traditional method of simply asking individuals to indicate whether they agree/disagree that stressors are present at work. The results point to the incremental increase in variance explained when these additional facets are measured over and above the variance explained by traditional methods. This result confirms the ned to develop a better understanding of the concept of demand, the difference between chronic and acute stressors, and the interaction effects of the different facets.     

The relationship between stimulus equivalence and verbal behavior

Despite the apparent similarity between stimulus equivalence and verbal behavior, these phenomena have been described in different terms. With different terminologies for each phenomenon, the precise nature of their relationship is difficult to determine. To explore this relationship, this paper first defines stimulus equivalence using a synthesis of the mathematical definition of the equivalence relation and Sidman and Tailby’s (1982) definition. Selected examples of stimulus equivalence are then described as verbal behavior using Skinner’s (1957) terminology. The paper then cites instances of verbal behavior that cannot be described as stimulus equivalence and considers whether there are instances of stimulus equivalence that cannot be described as verbal behavior.

     

Predicting the outcomes of annual sporting contests

Summary.  Data from 20 sporting contests in which the same two teams compete regularly are studied. Strong and weak symmetry requirements for possible models are identified, and some simple models are proposed and fitted to the data. The need to compute the exact likelihood function and the presence of missing values make this non-trivial. Forecasting match outcomes by using the models can give a modest improvement over a naïve forecast. Significance tests for studying the effect of 'match covariates' such as playing at home or away or winning the toss are introduced, and the effect of these covariates is in general found to be quite large.     

From dependence to interdependence: towards better outcomes for young people leaving state care

Young people leaving out of home care are arguably one of the most vulnerable and disadvantaged groups in society. Compared to most young people, they face particular difficulties in accessing educational, employment, housing and other developmental and transitional opportunities. Care leavers have been found to experience significant health, social and educational deficits including homelessness, involvement in juvenile crime and prostitution, mental and physical health problems, poor educational and employment outcomes, inadequate social support systems and early parenthood. These poor outcomes reflect a number of factors including ongoing emotional trauma resulting from experiences of abuse and neglect prior to care, inadequate support while in care, accelerated transitions to adulthood and lack of guaranteed ongoing financial and other assistance to help facilitate this transition. Young people leaving care do not currently receive the ongoing support that a good parent would be expected to provide for their children. Using relevant literature from the USA, UK and Australia, this paper examines the factors that contribute to these poor outcomes and potential policy and practice reforms that may lead to better outcomes for care leavers. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental scanning— the state of the art

In recent years increasing attention has been devoted to amplifying individual elements of corporate planning systems—among them the environmental scanning element. Moreover, the unprecendented intensification of corporate environmental complexity has led to a proliferation of approaches to scanning the general environment. However, a recent survey of a dozen U.S. companies has questioned whether such scanning practices have, in fact, been established in an ongoing manner. The author provides evidence here, based on publicly available information, of at least nine leading organizations where the practice of scanning for planning appears to have taken firm root. A discussion of the many facets of the resulting composite picture of sophisticated wide angle scanning leads to the anticipation that it is, in fact, on the threshold of rapid diffusion in the corporate world.