A forecasting and policy simulation oriented small macro-model for the Indian economy

The design of macro-models for the purposes of derivation of macroeconomic stabilization policies and obtaining forecasts is an important area of theoretical and empirical economic research. This is because such a stance presents an ideal blend of skillfully interweaving the essential theoretical ingredients of the contemporary macroeconomic paradigms with specific structural features of the country under reference. The use of macro-models enables the policy makers to build alternative policy evidences and thus this approach proves to be far superior to the alternative approaches based on intuitive or judgmental criteria. It is against this background that a macro-model for the Indian economy is estimated in an error-correction framework. Based on it, some policy options are evaluated. ECM and time varying parameter based forecasts are obtained for inflation and growth for the Indian economy for the year 2004–2005.     

Hadeda Ibis (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Bostrychia hagedash</Emphasis>) urban nesting and roosting sites

Hadeda Ibis (Bostrychia hagedash) have increased in population size and expanded in range in South Africa possibly as a result of increased use of exotic trees for nesting and roosting in urban areas. We investigated the urban nesting and roosting sites of the Hadeda Ibis by measuring tree height and species used by Hadeda Ibis for nesting and roosting in Pietermaritzburg, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We expected Hadeda Ibis nests and roosts to have habitats, like wetlands, to be within 10 km of the roost or nest tree. Hadeda Ibis nest and roost locations were mapped using ArcGIS and available resources (grasslands, wetlands, plantations, other natural water sources) 10 km around each roost and nest tree were determined. Results showed that Hadeda Ibis use exotic trees for nesting and roosting in urban areas more than indigenous trees. This may be because exotic trees are more available in urban environments, particularly those trees that have ornamental value. Hadeda Ibis did not nest and roost closer to expected resources. Although previously associated with wetlands, Hadeda Ibis in urban environments were not close to natural water sources. This can be explained by swimming pools providing accessible drinking water and well watered lawns providing suitable foraging habitat therefore allowing them to roost and nest in this urban habitat.     

Infants' Listening Preferences: Baby Talk or Happy Talk?

The most robust finding on infants' listening preferences has been widely characterized as a preference for baby talk (BT) over adult‐directed speech (ADS). Although prosodic modifications characteristic of BT also convey positive affect, differences in affect across BT and ADS speech registers have not been controlled in previous studies. This set of experiments sought to elucidate the basis for 6‐month‐olds' listening preference by independently manipulating affect and speech register. When affect was held constant, no preference for any speech register was observed. Moreover, when ADS stimuli presented more positive affect than BT stimuli, infants' preferences followed the positive affect. Higher and more variable pitch was neither necessary nor sufficient for determining infants' preferences, although pitch characteristics may modulate affect‐based preferences. The BT preference is thus attributable to a more general preference for speech that imparts relatively positive affect, a preference perhaps ascribable to a preexisting general‐purpose mechanism opportunistically exploited by language.     

A modified generalized mixed regression estimator when disturbances are nonnormal

A generalized mixed regression estimator for the estimation of the regression coefficients in the linear regression model with incomplete prior information is proposed and its properties are studied considering the risk under the general quadratic loss function when the disturbances are small and non normal.     

The Underclass in the United States: Some Correlates of Economic Change*

This paper analyzes the important manifestations of the underclass, outlines some differing positions on its origin and persistence, and lends further support to the argument of its link with the changing United States economy. The processes that produce and maintain the underclass are discussed along with their conflicting and converging interpretations. An analysis of the impact of industrial restructuring in the early 1980s shows that massive job losses affected blacks in the inner city areas much more severely than any other groups. The economic recovery that followed has not benefitted this group and, as a consequence, many census tract areas that were predominantly poor have become designated underclass. Consequences of the polarization of the labor force that has contributed to the isolation of inner city blacks from the economy is discussed, and recommendations are offered for solving this national problem.