Theory and techniques of demographic forecasting

This paper focuses on theories and techniques for forecasting fertility and mortality. Period and cohort analyses of fertility and mortality in Germany over the past century are first discussed. Alternative techniques for forecasting future trends in these variables in the Federal Republic of Germany are then outlined. The economic and social policy consequences of different mortality and fertility assumptions are also briefly noted.     

Child health,breast-feeding,and survival in Malaysia: a random-effects logit approach

This study examines the possibility that estimation of the effect of breast-feeding on infant survival is affected by selection bias, in that children who are healthier at birth may be more likely to be breast-fed. Data are from the 1976 Malaysian Family Life Survey. "Ordinary logit models for breast-feeding and survival are estimated, and the results suggest that selection is indeed present. For example, children of higher birth weight appear to be more likely to be breast-fed and likely to survive. In addition, weight at birth and the duration of breast-feeding appear to be linked." Using birth weight as an indicator for the child's health, the authors conclude that "the direct influence of breast-feeding on survival remains of overwhelming importance even after corrections for selection bias are made."     

Researching in the Victorian censuses: a note on a computerized,annotated bibliography of publications based substantially on the census enumerators' books

The authors describe a project, begun in 1981, to locate, list, and annotate all the published work based substantially on the census enumerators' books for nineteenth-century censuses for England and Wales. The results are currently available in a computerized file, enabling a variety of searches by topic, geographical area, and type of population. Information is provided on using the data and the computerized bibliography. The authors note that, subsequently, data for censuses of Scotland and Ireland have been added.     

Temporary workers in Canada: a multifaceted program

"This article highlights important developments in the character of temporary worker flows to Canada between 1973 and 1985 through the use of unpublished data and new measures for analyzing this data. The number of employment authorizations are converted to person years to indicate the overall labor market impact of temporary worker flows and this measure is employed in an analysis of unpublished data from Employment and Immigration Canada. The analysis reveals that a significant and growing proportion of employment authorizations are exempted from governmental procedures which link the admission of temporary workers to the Canadian labor market." Reasons for these exemptions and policy implications are discussed     

Spontaneously settled refugees in Northwestern Province,Zambia

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) commissioned researchers from the University of Zambia to conduct a socioeconomic survey and census of "spontaneously settled" Zairean and Angolan refugees in the Northwestern Province of Zambia in 1982. The sample consisted of 188 Angolans, 201 Zaireans, and 2 South Africans. The difficulties experienced by refugees in Northwestern Province in achieving integration were related to a combination of factors including the lack of a clear national policy on refugees and refugee status, a national concern for maintaining security, the popular belief that aliens are responsible for an increasing crime rate, the desire by immigration officials for stricter laws to control alien infiltration, conflict between traditional and modern leaders, and Zambia's deteriorating economic situation. In spite of the problems described, the integration of refugees into existing communities is a desirable goal and should be encouraged. One should not assume that self-settling refugees are able to live with ethnic kin, receive assistance and hospitality, and thus are better off than those in camps. The Zambian case provides ample evidence that integration is not easy even with kin support, shared ethnicity, language, and historical connections. Moreover, given the fact that Zambia will continue to receive refugees it is vital that there is a well defined refugee policy and an administrative mechanism for implementing that policy at all levels. This will be particularly important in Zambia as it will undoubtedly continue to receive large influxes of refugees, from countries such as Namibia, Uganda, Angola, Mozambique, and South Africa.     

International factors in the formation of refugee movements

The authors construct a theoretical framework for analyzing factors influencing international refugee movements. "On the basis of detailed case studies by the authors of the principal refugee flows generated in Asia, Africa, and Latin America from approximately 1960 to the present, it was found that international factors often intrude both directly and indirectly on the major types of social conflict that trigger refugee flows, and tend to exacerbate their effects. Refugees are also produced by conflicts that are manifestly international, but which are themselves often related to internal social conflict among the antagonists."     

Pivotal partings: Forced termination with a sexually abused boy

The termination phase of therapy is an integral part of the treatment process engendering its own unique set of dynamics. However, the potential eruption of new material dislodged by the trauma of the impending loss may in some cases require a reassessment of discharge goals and consequent alteration of treatment modality. The likelihood of new material surfacing at this critical juncture is perhaps highest among the caseloads of therapist trainees, wherein the termination date is forced by the time-limited nature of the learning contract. In the following article, supervisor and trainee detail the process of therapeutic shift from a dynamic to a crisis-oriented modality in the case of a young boy whose central trauma emerged during termination.     

Teaching international demography

"I describe a course on international demography in this paper. The course enables students to use demographic concepts to understand the demographics of various countries and regions. The course involves an introduction, examination of specific geographic regions, and a concluding overview. I also describe several student projects and review available course materials."     

Contributors to disruption and dissolution of older-child adoptions

According to recent evidence, adoptive placements that do not work out are increasingly common. This article reviews research on rates of, and contributors to, adoption and "foster-adoption" disruptions and dissolutions. Implications for practice are included.     

Computer support of placement planning: the use of expert systems in child welfare

Computers have become commonplace in nearly every setting, from home to office. In addition to their usefulness for managerial tasks, they have the potential to aid the primary decision-making tasks of professional social service workers. The benefits and background of such "expert systems" are explored, and the structure of one experimental consulting program for child welfare workers, PLACECON, is presented.