对关于统计推断性质的十四个难以理解和有待澄清的问题的思考（下）

十四、概率上限和概率下限在理论和实际中有什么作用?　　由于具体的或认识上的概率的上、下限产生于不同的环境,短语概率“上限”和概率“下限”可以从不同的角度来解释。在格罗宁根,从20世纪70年代中期以来,就有一种对后验概率构造置信区间的传统[126,4]。在罗吉斯蒂回归中,即使对比例风险回归模型,也可得到类似的结果,见[70,17]。标准误和置信限加深了评估中涉及的统计不确定性的印象。除了这些统计不确定性外,还存在系统误差引起的不确定性:参数模型在某种程度上总是错误的。因此将精力集中在这些统计不确定性上多少是一种误导。然而在…     

多效唑对亚热带低寒带桃“Flordaprince”物候循环的影响

Allan，p，George，A．P，Nissen，R．J，Rasmussen，T．S．和Morley－Bunker，M．J，1993。多效吐对亚热带澳大利亚的低寒带桃“Flordaprince”物候循环的影响。园艺科学，53：73-84。将低寒带桃“Flordaprince”种植在亚热带澳大利亚，用多效吐处理两次以矮化树体，或使用氮处理来强化树体。疏花之后，调整并统一单株果实数，使每棵树的果实具有充分空间。多效唑能显著地抑制竞争性的春梢生长，引起果实提早成熟，并使产量增加，果实增大，品质提高。多效吐减少根的春季生长，而导致秋季根的大量生长。在乔化树中，果实生长的第二阶段稍长，使得种子和胚的生长推迟，胚中干物质较多。淀粉储藏量以根中为最大，其次是根干、枝和叶。在硬核期和果实成熟阶段，淀粉储藏量降到最低水平，但在枝梢伸长生长结束之后，又会升高，到落叶时，再次达到峰值。叶分析显示，整个季节中N、P和K的浓度降低，而Ca和Mg的浓度升高。多效唑处理树中，K的水平显著低于乔化树，而Ca、Mg水平显著高于乔化树。     

尼泊尔共产党（毛主义）的前世今生

尼泊尔的经验表明,单靠军事力量的强大无法保证能够取得反叛乱战争的胜利,人民的支持乃是决定性的因素。美国要想取得反叛乱战争的胜利,就必须加大对冲突国社会、经济．政治和文化背景的认识和了解,并对过去的反叛乱斗争策略做出深刻检讨。     

婚姻生育对女性科学家科研成果的影响

关于科学家科研成果（以出版物的数量作为衡量标准）的研究表明：女科学家通常在其职业生涯中与年龄、博士学位背景和领域相同的男科学家相比,所发表的论文较少一些。（见图1）为说明科学出版物上的这种数量差别,人们提出了包括系统的性别歧视和科学智力上的生物性差别在内的多种解释。     

Addressing self-selection bias in quasi-experimental evaluations of whole-school reform. A comparison of methods

This article discusses potential sources of self-selection bias in quasi-experimental evaluations of whole-school reform models and considers how individual student-level data might be used to provide valid impact estimates. Although repeated pretreatment and posttreatment measures of student performance can provide unbiased estimates under relatively weak assumptions, such data are difficult to obtain. The article develops an instrumental variable strategy that can be used to improve on common value-added estimators when only posttreatment measures of performance are available. Using data from New York City, the author shows that the instrumental variable strategy can provide estimates of model impacts similar to those provided by a difference-in-differences estimator provided that appropriate instruments are used.     

Events and experiences impacting the development of clinical self confidence: a study of the first year of client contact

Research was conducted to identify the events and experiences influencing the development of clinical self-confidence during the first year of client contact for beginning marriage and family therapists. Thirty-nine recent graduates of a master's degree training program participated in a semistructured interview in which they were asked to describe the influences on their clinical self-confidence. Through qualitative analysis, four event and experience categories emerged as exerting the most influence on confidence at this stage of professional development: supervision, contact with clients, contact with peers, and personal life stress. The authors recommend providing strength-focused supervision, acknowledging the effects of client contact, encouraging peer contact, and attending to personal life stress.     

The role of the health care leader. Past, present, future

Strong, effective communication may be the single most important key to success for any type of executive. Leaders of health care organizations must be able to promote ideas that others will implement, help staff see the value of their work, and have the vision to overcome limitations that stand in the way of progress.