Naked reverse: unexpected plays for exceptional results

Following the herd is easy when it comes to business ventures. But if you really want to start something new, you must first carefully think it through. Learn some ways to do that before you set out on a new path.     

Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Lahar Flow Threat

The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines is considered one of the most violent and destructive volcanic activities in the 20th century. Lahar is the Indonesian term for volcanic ash, and lahar flows resulting from the massive amount of volcanic materials deposited on the mountain's slope posed continued post-eruption threats to the surrounding areas, destroying lives, homes, agricultural products, and infrastructures. Risks of lahar flows were identified immediately after the eruption, with scientific data provided by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other research institutions. However, competing political, economic, and social agendas subordinated the importance of scientific information to policy making. Using systemic risk analysis and management, this article addresses the issues of multiple objectives and the effective integration of scientific techniques into the decision-making process. It provides a modeling framework for identifying, prioritizing, and evaluating policies for managing risk. The major considerations are: (1) applying a holistic approach to risk analysis through hierarchical holographic modeling, (2) applying statistical methods to gain insight into the problem of uncertainty in risk assessment, (3) using multiobjective trade-off analysis to address the issue of multiple decisionmakers and stakeholders in the decision-making process, (4) using the conditional expected value of extreme events to complement and supplement the expected value in quantifying risk, and (5) assessing the impacts of multistage decisions. Numerical examples based on ex post data are formulated to illustrate applications to various problems. The resulting framework from this study can serve as a general baseline model for assessing and managing risks of natural disasters, which the Philippines' lead agency-the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC)-and other related organizations can use for their decision-making processes.     

The State of the Field in UK Management Research: Reflections of the Research Assessment Exercise (RAE) Panel

This paper reviews the state of the field of the sub-disciplines within UK management research, based upon the submissions of 94 UK higher education institutions to the Business and Management Studies Panel in the UK's 2001 Research Assessment Exercise (RAE). It offers observations on the UK model of the assessment of quality in, and funding of, research conducted in publicly funded higher education institutions.     

Managing from the Inside Out: Drawing on 'Receptivity' to Explain Variation in Strategy Implementation

With the rise of 'New Public Management' (NPM), government policy has encouraged public-sector organizations to downsize and outsource their services. There is, however, local variation in the use of outsourcing – this is 'managing from the inside out'. This paper draws on the notion of receptivity for organizational change to explain variation in strategy implementation. Four receptivity factors are identified which seem to explain the success of two contrasting English local government outsourcing strategies: ideological vision, leading change, institutional politics and implementation capacity. The organization level of change is interconnected with two other levels of change (the public service and environment levels) to illustrate the dynamic nature of change.     

Was tun Lektoren?

What is the work of editors? Counselling of a ?service in background“The work of editors as employees in publishing houses or as free lancers is a ?service in background“ and hence it is less well-known in comparison with other media professionals. Nevertheless, editors have an important role as intermediary between authors and the reading public. The author delineates the profession of editors and the technical aspects of their work and explains some typical conflicts which may be relevant to a coaching of editors.     

A Conditional Likelihood Ratio Test for Structural Models

This paper develops a general method for constructing exactly similar tests based on the conditional distribution of nonpivotal statistics in a simultaneous equations model with normal errors and known reduced‐form covariance matrix. These tests are shown to be similar under weak‐instrument asymptotics when the reduced‐form covariance matrix is estimated and the errors are non‐normal. The conditional test based on the likelihood ratio statistic is particularly simple and has good power properties. Like the score test, it is optimal under the usual local‐to‐null asymptotics, but it has better power when identification is weak.     

Learning How and Learning What: Effects of Tacit and Codified Knowledge on Performance Improvement Following Technology Adoption

This paper examines effects of tacit and codified knowledge on performance improvement as organizations gain experience with a new technology. We draw from knowledge management and learning curve research to predict improvement rate heterogeneity across organizations. We first note that the same technology can present opportunities for improvement along more than one dimension, such as efficiency and breadth of use. We compare improvement for two dimensions: one in which the acquisition of codified knowledge leads to improvement and another in which improvement requires tacit knowledge. We hypothesize that improvement rates across organizations will be more heterogeneous for dimensions of performance that rely on tacit knowledge than for those that rely on codified knowledge (H1), and that group membership stability predicts improvement rates for dimensions relying on tacit knowledge (H2). We further hypothesize that when performance relies on codified knowledge, later adopters should improve more quickly than earlier adopters (H3). All three hypotheses are supported in a study of 15 hospitals learning to use a new surgical technology. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.     

AN IMPROVED HEURISTIC FOR STAFFING TELEPHONE CALL CENTERS WITH LIMITED OPERATING HOURS

Many telephone call centers that experience cyclic and random customer demand adjust their staffing over the day in an attempt to provide a consistent target level of customer service. The standard and widely used staffing method, which we call the stationary independent period by period (SIPP) approach, divides the workday into planning periods and uses a series of stationary independent Erlang‐c queuing models—one for each planning period—to estimate minimum staffing needs. Our research evaluates and improves upon this commonly used heuristic for those telephone call centers with limited hours of operation during the workday. We show that the SIPP approach often suggests staffing that is substantially too low to achieve the targeted customer service levels (probability of customer delay) during critical periods. The major reasons for SIPP‘ s shortfall are as follows: (1) SIPP's failure to account for the time lag between the peak in customer demand and when system congestion actually peaks; and (2) SIPP’ s use of the planning period average arrival rate, thereby assuming that the arrival rate is constant during the period. We identify specific domains for which SIPP tends to suggest inadequate staffing. Based on an analysis of the factors that influence the magnitude of the lag in infinite server systems that start empty and idle, we propose and test two simple “lagged” SIPP modifications that, in most situations, consistently achieve the service target with only modest increases in staffing.