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991.
In a mixture experiment, the response depends on the proportions of the mixing components. Canonical models of different degrees and also other models have been suggested to represent the mean response. Optimum designs for estimation of the parameters of the models have been investigated by different authors. In most cases, the optimum design includes the vertex points of the simplex as support points of the design, which are not mixture combinations in the true non-trivial sense. In this paper, optimum designs have been obtained when the experimental region is an ellipsoidal subspace of the entire factor space which does not cover the vertex points of the simplex. 相似文献
992.
Eliciting decision weights by adapting de Finetti’s betting-odds method to prospect theory 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Enrico Diecidue Peter P. Wakker Marcel Zeelenberg 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,34(3):179-199
This paper extends de Finetti’s betting-odds method for assessing subjective beliefs to ambiguous events. Thus, a tractable
manner for measuring decision weights under ambiguity is obtained. De Finetti’s method is so transparent that decision makers
can evaluate the relevant tradeoffs in complex situations. The resulting data can easily be analyzed, using nonparametric
techniques. Our extension is implemented in an experiment on predicting next-day’s performance of the Dow Jones and Nikkei
stock indexes, where we test the existence and nature of rank dependence, finding usual patterns. We also find violations
of rank dependence.
相似文献
Peter P. WakkerEmail: URL: http://www.few.eur.nl/few/people/wakker/ |
993.
We present a unified look at myopic stability concepts for hedonic games, and discuss the status of the existence problems
of stable coalition structures. In particular, we show that contractual strictly core stable coalition structures always exist,
and present a sufficient condition for the existence of contractually Nash stable coalition structures on the class of separable
games.
We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation (D. Dimitrov)“by “D. Dimitrov gratefully
acknowledges financial support from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. 相似文献
994.
Christian Gollier 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,35(2):107-127
We examine the collective risk attitude of a group with heterogeneous beliefs. We prove that the wealth-dependent probability
distribution used by the representative agent is biased in favor of the beliefs of the more risk tolerant consumers. Moreover,
increasing disagreement on the state probability raises the state probability of the representative agent. It implies that
when most disagreements are concentrated in the tails of the distribution, the perceived collective risk is magnified. This
can help to solve the equity premium puzzle. We show that the trade volume and the equity premium are positively correlated.
相似文献
Christian GollierEmail: |
995.
Matthew E. Kahn 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,35(1):17-43
Unexpected events such as environmental catastrophes capture wide public attention. Soon after five major shocks—Three Mile
Island, Love Canal, Bhopal, Chernobyl, and the Exxon Valdez oil spill—Congress voted on new risk regulation. This paper conducts
an event study to test whether individual congressional representatives were “shocked” by these environmental disasters into
increasing their probability of voting in favor of risk legislation. On average, representatives were less likely to vote
in favor of bills tied to these five events. Significant heterogeneity in representatives’ responses to these shocks is documented.
Liberal Northeast representatives were most likely to increase their pro-environment voting in the aftermath of these shocks.
相似文献
Matthew E. KahnEmail: |
996.
997.
Economic turbulence in the early 1980s stimulated not only popular and governmental concern about the effects of unemployment, but also extensive research on the topic. This journal issue presents 10 representative reports of such recent research from the United States and Europe. Of the two principal methodologies used in this field, aggregate time-series analysis and individual-level surveys, this issue is limited to the individual-level literature. Two papers provide a social psychological and human developmental orientation to the topic. Then, six papers address the psychological costs of unemployment, four based on population surveys and two dealing with plant closings. Finally, two papers describe policy responses being considered or implemented in North America and Europe. 相似文献
998.
Can ranking techniques elicit robust values? 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper reports two experiments which examine the use of ranking methods to elicit ‘certainty equivalent’ values. It investigates
whether such methods are able to eliminate the disparities between choice and value which constitute the ‘preference reversal
phenomenon’ and which thereby pose serious problems for both theory and policy application. The results show that ranking
methods are vulnerable to distorting effects of their own, but that when such effects are controlled for, the preference reversal
phenomenon, previously so strong and striking, is very considerably attenuated.
相似文献
Graham LoomesEmail: |
999.
We analyze the risk levels chosen by agents who have private information regarding their quality, and whose performance will
be judged and rewarded by outsiders. Assume that risk choice is observable. Agents will choose risk strategically to enhance
their expected reputations. We show that conspicuous conservatism results: agents of different qualities choose levels below
those that would be chosen if quality were observable. This happens because bad agents must cloak their identity by choosing
the same risk level as good agents, and good agents are more likely to distinguish themselves if they reduce the risk level.
Our results contrast starkly with those for the case when risk choice cannot be observed.
相似文献
Richard ZeckhauserEmail: |
1000.
The ratio bias—according to which individuals prefer to bet on probabilities expressed as a ratio of large numbers to normatively
equivalent or superior probabilities expressed as a ratio of small numbers—has recently gained momentum, with researchers
especially in health economics emphasizing the policy importance of the phenomenon. Although the bias has been replicated
several times, some doubts remain about its economic significance. Our two experiments show that the bias disappears once
order effects are excluded, and once salient and dominant incentives are provided. This holds true for both choice and valuation
tasks. Also, adding context to the decision problem does not alter this finding. No ratio bias could be found in between-subject
tests either, which leads us to the conclusion that the policy relevance of the phenomenon is doubtful at best. 相似文献