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41.
We test whether monetary shocks had asymmetric output effects before World War II. Ball and Mankiw (1994) show that expectations of persistent inflation under fiat money can explain why negative monetary shocks had larger effects than positive shocks after World War II. Consistent with this explanation, we find such asymmetry in the interwar period following the abandonment of the gold standard and before it, when agents arguably anticipated this development. We find no monetary asymmetry before World War I, which is consistent with Ball and Mankiw (1994), because under a credible gold standard, agents do not expect persistent inflation. 相似文献
42.
Abstract The persistence of ethnic settlement in rural regions of the United States is well documented. Yet, there has been little discussion of techniques which allow the identification of the geographic extent and concentration of distinctive ethnic populations. Amish-Mennonite settlement constitutes a unique component of the rural landscape. A wide range of visual clues alert the observer to their presence, but without painstaking field surveys it is difficult to establish their geographic extent. This paper examines four approaches to the identification of Amish-Mennonite settlement. These are county-based population data on religious affiliation, the location of Amish church districts and Mennonite churches, topographic maps, and surnames and cadastral maps. Topographic maps proved unsuitable, but each of the other approaches produced reasonable approximations of the areal extent of Amish-Mennonite settlement. Surnames and cadastral maps present good possibilities for the identification of other ethnic populations in rural regions. 相似文献
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Randall R. Cottrell D. Ed. Martha Carey M.S. Ray Tricker Ph.D. Kathleen Zavela Ph.D. 《Journal of American college health : J of ACH》2013,61(5):283-288
Abstract Both the literature review and the results of a behavioral change project conducted at the University of Oregon indicate that health courses can bring about positive lifestyle changes when behavior is made a focus of the class. A multi-faceted behavioral intervention strategy was developed and used with 433 students enrolled in personal health classes during the fall term, 1983. At the end of the term, 23% of the students reported they were 100% successful in obtaining their desired behavioral changes. Another 40% reported they had just missed their goal. Overall, it appears the intervention was highly successful. More research is needed to validate the approach. 相似文献
45.
This paper uses a wealth shock from the construction of a flood protection embankment in rural Bangladesh coupled with data on the universe of all 52,000 marriage decisions between 1982 and 1996 to examine changes in marital prospects for households protected by the embankment relative to unprotected households living on the other side of the river. We use difference-in-difference specifications to document that brides from protected households commanded larger dowries, married wealthier households, and became less likely to marry biological relatives. Financial liquidity-constrained households appear to use within-family marriage (in which one can promise ex-post payments) as a form of credit to meet up-front dowry demands, but the resultant wealth shock for households protected by the embankment relaxed this need to marry consanguineously. Our results shed light on the socioeconomic roots of consanguinity, which carries health risks for offspring but can also carry substantial benefits for the families involved. 相似文献
46.
Andrea M. Lang Brandy A. Randall 《Journal of gambling studies / co-sponsored by the National Council on Problem Gambling and Institute for the Study of Gambling and Commercial Gaming》2013,29(3):551-573
This study examined associations between the gambling attitudes and behavior of 213 young adults and their perceptions of the gambling attitudes and behavior of their closest grandparent. Regression analyses showed that young adult gambling attitudes mediated the relations between perceived grandparent gambling attitudes and behavior and young adult gambling behavior. Grandparent–grandchild relationship quality experienced while growing up did not moderate the relations between young adult and perceived grandparent gambling attitudes and behavior. Men experienced gambling at a younger age and reported more positive gambling attitudes, more frequent gambling activity, higher levels of gambling pathology, and higher levels of gambling affinity than women. Implications of results and suggestions for future research are discussed. 相似文献
47.
Rachel A. Davidson Linda K. Nozick Tricia Wachtendorf Brian Blanton Brian Colle Randall L. Kolar Sarah DeYoung Kendra M. Dresback Wenqi Yi Kun Yang Nicholas Leonardo 《Risk analysis》2020,40(1):97-116
This article introduces a new integrated scenario-based evacuation (ISE) framework to support hurricane evacuation decision making. It explicitly captures the dynamics, uncertainty, and human–natural system interactions that are fundamental to the challenge of hurricane evacuation, but have not been fully captured in previous formal evacuation models. The hazard is represented with an ensemble of probabilistic scenarios, population behavior with a dynamic decision model, and traffic with a dynamic user equilibrium model. The components are integrated in a multistage stochastic programming model that minimizes risk and travel times to provide a tree of evacuation order recommendations and an evaluation of the risk and travel time performance for that solution. The ISE framework recommendations offer an advance in the state of the art because they: (1) are based on an integrated hazard assessment (designed to ultimately include inland flooding), (2) explicitly balance the sometimes competing objectives of minimizing risk and minimizing travel time, (3) offer a well-hedged solution that is robust under the range of ways the hurricane might evolve, and (4) leverage the substantial value of increasing information (or decreasing degree of uncertainty) over the course of a hurricane event. A case study for Hurricane Isabel (2003) in eastern North Carolina is presented to demonstrate how the framework is applied, the type of results it can provide, and how it compares to available methods of a single scenario deterministic analysis and a two-stage stochastic program. 相似文献
48.
Randall Collins 《The British journal of sociology》2009,60(3):595-601
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Birth-multiple catastrophe processes are analyzed where the birth transition rates are assumed to be constant while catastrophes are distinguished by having possibly different destinations and possibly different transition rates. The transient probability functions of such birth-multiple catastrophe systems are determined. The solution method uses dual processes, randomization, and sample path counting. Solutions are explicit in terms of being a finite linear combination of products of exponential functions of time, t, and nonnegative integer powers of t. The coefficients within this expansion follow a pattern of rational functions of the transition rates. 相似文献