The encoding and decoding of liking from behavioral cues in both auditory and visual channels

Fifty high school students met in same-sex dyads for the first time over a cup of coffee in an experimental room designed as a comfortable living room. They then responded to a questionnaire designed to measure liking and perceived similarity. The interactions were video-taped. Two different panels of 6 judges later either viewed (video only) or heard (audio-only) the videotape and raed the subjects behavior on a number of scales. The judges also judged the degree of liking felt by the subjects by estimating subjects responses to the questionnaire. In addition gaze behaviour during the interaction was measured. Factor analysis demonstrated that 60% of the variance in The Liking Scale was attributed to 14 items relating to liking and perceived similarity. A separate factor to assess perceived similarity could not be found. Twenty-nine percent of the variance in the liking reported by subjects was predicted by an interrelated pattern of expressing behaviour including approproate looking, mutual gaze, self-disclosure, synchrony in movement and gesture, expressiveness of the face and liveliness of the voice. Video judges liking correlated 0.33 with subjects liking and 48% of the variance in their judgements was explained by the valid cues of looking and expressiveness of the face. Audio judges liking, although it correlated at 0.34 with video judges liking, did not correlate at all with subjects' liking because of an over-reliance on the important content cues. It is suggested that major problems leading to decoding inaccuracy may be over-reliance on content cues and over-confidence in the possibility of decoding accuracy. The evidence suggests that differences between subjects in encoding may be considerable.     

State of the Art in Risk Analysis of Workforce Criticality Influencing Disaster Preparedness for Interdependent Systems

The objective of this article is to discuss a needed paradigm shift in disaster risk analysis to emphasize the role of the workforce in managing the recovery of interdependent infrastructure and economic systems. Much of the work that has been done on disaster risk analysis has focused primarily on preparedness and recovery strategies for disrupted infrastructure systems. The reliability of systems such as transportation, electric power, and telecommunications is crucial in sustaining business processes, supply chains, and regional livelihoods, as well as ensuring the availability of vital services in the aftermath of disasters. There has been a growing momentum in recognizing workforce criticality in the aftermath of disasters; nevertheless, significant gaps still remain in modeling, assessing, and managing workforce disruptions and their associated ripple effects to other interdependent systems. The workforce plays a pivotal role in ensuring that a disrupted region continues to function and subsequently recover from the adverse effects of disasters. With this in mind, this article presents a review of recent studies that have underscored the criticality of workforce sectors in formulating synergistic preparedness and recovery policies for interdependent infrastructure and regional economic systems.     

Making Professional Decisions in Research: Measurement and Key Predictors

The professional decision-making in research (PDR) measure was administered to 400 National Institutes of Health (NIH)-funded and industry-funded investigators, along with measures of cynicism, moral disengagement, compliance disengagement, impulsivity, work stressors, knowledge of responsible conduct of research (RCR), and socially desirable response tendencies. Negative associations were found for the PDR and measures of cynicism, moral disengagement, and compliance disengagement, while positive associations were found for the PDR and RCR knowledge and positive urgency, an impulsivity subscale. PDR scores were not related to socially desirable responding, or to measures of work stressors and the remaining impulsivity subscales. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, lower moral disengagement scores, higher RCR knowledge, and identifying the United States as one’s nation of origin emerged as key predictors of stronger performance on the PDR. The implications of these findings for understanding the measurement of decision-making in research and future directions for research and RCR education are discussed.     

LABOR SUPPLY OF POLITICIANS

Using data on Members of the European Parliament (MEPs), we examine the impact of salaries on the composition and the behavior of legislators. Employing a differences‐in‐differences approach, we exploit the introduction of a law that equalized MEPs' salaries which had previously differed by as much as a factor of 10. Increasing salaries raises the fraction of MEPs who run for re‐election but decreases the quality of elected MEPs (proxied by college quality). Salary has no discernible impact on effort or legislation output. Higher salaries induce more political competition.     

Methods to assess measurement error in questionnaires of sedentary behavior

Sedentary behavior has already been associated with mortality, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. Questionnaires are an affordable tool for measuring sedentary behavior in large epidemiological studies. Here, we introduce and evaluate two statistical methods for quantifying measurement error in questionnaires. Accurate estimates are needed for assessing questionnaire quality. The two methods would be applied to validation studies that measure a sedentary behavior by both questionnaire and accelerometer on multiple days. The first method fits a reduced model by assuming the accelerometer is without error, while the second method fits a more complete model that allows both measures to have error. Because accelerometers tend to be highly accurate, we show that ignoring the accelerometer's measurement error, can result in more accurate estimates of measurement error in some scenarios. In this article, we derive asymptotic approximations for the mean-squared error of the estimated parameters from both methods, evaluate their dependence on study design and behavior characteristics, and offer an R package so investigators can make an informed choice between the two methods. We demonstrate the difference between the two methods in a recent validation study comparing previous day recalls to an accelerometer-based ActivPal.     

Operationalizing environmental indicators for physical activity in older adults

This qualitative study describes environmental supports and barriers to physical activity in an older adult sample drawn from low- and high-walkable neighborhoods. Thirty-seven individuals age 55 and over were recruited and answered open-ended survey questions, with a subsample invited back to partake in a semistructured interview. Content analysis identified categories and themes linking perceptions of neighborhood-environment characteristics to activity. Emerging categories and themes did not differ across neighborhood walkability, so results are presented for both groups combined. Infrastructure was the most common category identified to encourage activity, specifically, well-maintained sidewalks, bike paths or lanes, and traffic control. Other categories of land use, landscape, and aesthetics were reported. Poorly maintained or missing sidewalks, crosswalks, bike paths or lanes, and traffic safety were categories that discouraged activity. In conclusion, the information obtained is helpful in solidifying which environmental characteristics are important to measure as they relate to activity behavior in an older adult population.     

Relationships among nutrients,chloride and biological indices in urban Maryland streams

Using a spatially extensive urban database constructed from the Maryland Biological Stream Survey (MBSS), we describe the relationships of nutrients in small-order streams to eight defined categories of percent catchment urbanization, correlations between chloride and conductivity in urban streams, and relationships between nutrients and chloride with two Maryland-specific indices of biotic integrity for benthic macroinvertebrates and fish assemblages. Stream nutrients become elevated with increasing percent catchment urbanization, followed by increases in all four measured nitrogen species and total phosphorus at catchment urbanization levels greater than 10%. There was a strong collinear relationship (r ² = 0.90) between chloride and conductivity (trimeans) across all eight urbanization classes, where Cl (mg/L) = −0.397 + 0.188*conductivity (μS/cm). Critical values for all water quality parameters with the two Maryland biological indices were derived using quantile regression, with significant regressions developed for 11 of 16 water quality parameters and the two biotic indices. For nitrate (NO₃-N), the critical thresholds between fair and poor stream quality for the two Maryland biological indices were 0.83 mg/L (benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages) and 0.86 mg/L (fish assemblages). Increasing stream nutrient and chloride levels, associated with widespread catchment urbanization intensity, now affect many small streams in Maryland, with implications for decreasing water quality in major tributaries and the Chesapeake Bay.     

EMPIRICAL AND JUDGMENT-BASED SALES-FORCE DECISION MODELS: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS*

Multiple-predictor empirical and single-predictor judgment-based models represent the two basic types of sales-force decision models (SDMs). The important similarities and differences between the two modeling approaches are identified and discussed. The SDM literature is reviewed to determine how each model type has been applied and to evaluate previous attempts at model validation. A research study designed to compare the normative sales-call allocations generated from each modeling approach is presented. Study results indicate that empirical and judgment-based SDMs would produce similar normative guidelines. The implications of this finding are discussed.     

Will the ASA's Efforts to Improve Statistical Practice be Successful? Some Evidence to the Contrary

ABSTRACT

Recent efforts by the American Statistical Association to improve statistical practice, especially in countering the misuse and abuse of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) and p-values, are to be welcomed. But will they be successful? The present study offers compelling evidence that this will be an extraordinarily difficult task. Dramatic citation-count data on 25 articles and books severely critical of NHST's negative impact on good science, underlining that this issue was/is well known, did nothing to stem its usage over the period 1960–2007. On the contrary, employment of NHST increased during this time. To be successful in this endeavor, as well as restoring the relevance of the statistics profession to the scientific community in the 21st century, the ASA must be prepared to dispense detailed advice. This includes specifying those situations, if they can be identified, in which the p-value plays a clearly valuable role in data analysis and interpretation. The ASA might also consider a statement that recommends abandoning the use of p-values.     

A Problematic Test of the Kin Selection Hypothesis Among the Urak-Lawoi of Ko Lipe,Thailand: Commentary on Camperio Ciani,Battaglia, and Liotta (2015)

Camperio Ciani et al. argued that the Urak-Lawoi people of Ko Lipe island live in a “traditional,” “subsistence primitive society” reminiscent of the “ancestral” human past and that their socio-cultural situation is “remarkably similar” to Samoa. On this basis, they asserted that the Ko Lipe Urak-Lawoi are an appropriate population for determining the role that kin selection played in the evolution of male androphilia. The purpose of this commentary is to outline some of our concerns with this characterization and with the statistical analyses conducted by Camperio Ciani et al. in their study of the Urak-Lawoi.