The identification of distribution form II

The concept of distribution form developed in Brenner and Fraser (1980) is modified and extended to cover the more general context involving a class of distribution for form. This extension underlies the choice of a particular structural model for the three-parameter Weibull in Evans, Fraser and Massam (1982). The extended definition of distribution form is based on the requirement of objectivity in modelling (Fraser 1979). Three characterizations of this objectivity each require that the class of response presentations have closure under composition and thus be expressible in terms of a group. In particular, this implies that empirical support would not observationally be available for that generalization of a structural model called astructured model (Fraser 1972; the term functional model has been used inappropriately by Bunke, 1975 and Dawid and Stone, 1982).     

Sources of immigrants' language proficiency: Australian results with comparisons to the Federal Republic of Germany and the United States of America

Recent research on immigrants in the Federal Republic of Germany and the US suggests that their amount of education, the country in which they attained it, and their labor force experience both before and after migrating all have important effects on their skills in the language of the host country. This paper explores those influences on the English language proficiency of 4 groups of immigrants to Australia: 1) those from Northwestern Europe, 2) Eastern Europe, 3) the Mediterranean basin, and 4) the Third World. The data are drawn from the 1% public use sample of the 1981 Australian census. The models are flexible ordinary least squares specifications that permit a variety of curvilinear na interaction effects. The results generally parallel those for the Federal Republic of Germany and the US. 1 important difference from the US is that the harmful effect of foreign labor experience is greater than the beneficial effect of labor force experience in the host country.     

Economic aspects of Singapore's selective family planning policy

In the mid 1980s Singapore instituted a selective family planning policy which encouraged poorly educated women to prevent pregnancy while university graduates were discouraged from using family planning. The intent of this policy was to restructure the population and the economy into a more skill-intensive industrial society and to produce effective leaders for the future governing of the country. Monetary incentives were offered to both groups of women for their compliance with the policy, including grants to poor women agreeing to undergo steriliaztion. This study undertakes a cost benefit analysis of this family planning policy, taking into account parameters of economic growth, marginal value product of labor, and the consumption levels. Results of this analysis suggest that society may benefit more by prevention the birth of a potential university student than by preventing the birth of a potential primary school graduate. However, this study does not take into account the value of educated citizens in technical advancement which would raise the productivity of the uskilled workers in the country, nor some of the real economic conditions in Singapore such as the virtually unlimited availability of labor from other Asian countries (who come without dependents and are expatriated when they become unproductive). Training cost and the timing of benefits are critical to the outcome of this analysis. It is shown that, under some reasonable conditions, the selective family planning policy might not be economically warranted.     

Quantitative Theory,Methodology and Technique

In hypothesis testing, the level of significance, α, often performs a screening as well as an evaluating function. Results which are not “significant” at some preset value of α are simply not reported. Unfortunately, this value of α is usually arbitrarily set at .05 or .01 and bears no relation to the needs of potential users of the study. This paper suggests an approach to making the selection of α more responsive to these potential applications.     

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN DECISION THEORY

This paper explores linear programming-like sensitivity analysis in decision theory. In particular, the paper considers the sensitivity of an optimal decision to changes in probabilities of the states of nature and the development of “confidence spheres” to bound arbitrary parametric changes in the probability vector. Such information can be used to assess the accuracy required in assigning probabilities and the confidence in the maximumutility decision.     

Reconstruction and Deconstruction of the Foundation of South Australia as a Nineteenth-Century Strategic Planning Process and How it Might Compare with Current Planning Practice

ABSTRACT

This article does three things. It reconstructs the narrative about the foundation of South Australia in the 1830s as a strategic planning process. It then deconstructs that analysis to explore the issues it addresses and the outcomes. Finally, it reviews the South Australian experience to see if there are valid comparisons to be made with current practice and what lessons it might offer in that regard. In doing that it briefly reviews one present methodology of strategic planning most akin to that followed in South Australia, and one strategic planning exercise that could learn from it.     

“Spokes in the wheel” and how policy gains can diversify a social movement

ABSTRACT

Activists often use their resources to pursue protective legislation, like anti-discrimination or environmental protection laws, and the results are often compromised versions of what they wanted. This process of political institutionalization requires ongoing and robust mobilization to strengthen these resulting policies or prevent them from being rescinded all together. Therefore, to understand the pros and cons of political institutionalization we must understand the recursive effects between policy reform and consequent mobilization. Quantitative and qualitative data on the animal advocacy movement, a movement existing for over a century, are used to explore the effects of policy gains on consequent mobilization and explore whether policy gains were followed by de-escalation of protest forms. The findings indicate that policy gains for animal welfare do not de-escalate mobilization, both in terms of the use of disruptive collective action and proliferation of organizations. The article explores the ways that infighting over the terms of policy reform may be an important factor in diversifying the movement.     

Stochasticity in Physiologically Based Kinetics Models: Implications for Cancer Risk Assessment

In case of low-dose exposure to a substance, its concentration in cells is likely to be stochastic. Assessing the consequences of this stochasticity in toxicological risk assessment requires the coupling of macroscopic dynamics models describing whole-body kinetics with microscopic tools designed to simulate stochasticity. In this article, we propose an approach to approximate stochastic cell concentration of butadiene in the cells of diverse organs. We adapted the dynamics equations of a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model and used a stochastic simulator for the system of equations that we derived. We then coupled kinetics simulations with a deterministic hockey stick model of carcinogenicity. Stochasticity induced substantial modifications relative to dose-response curve, compared with the deterministic situation. In particular, there was nonlinearity in the response and the stochastic apparent threshold was lower than the deterministic one. The approach that we developed could easily be extended to other biological studies to assess the influence of stochasticity at macroscopic scale for compound dynamics at the cell level.     

Headquarter Services in the Global Integration of Production

This study examines knowledge management within multinational enterprises (MNEs) by analyzing whether greater interdependence of production between U.S. parent firms and their foreign subsidiaries increases the provision of headquarter (HQ) services from the home country. The findings suggest that U.S. parents provide more assistance to their foreign subsidiaries that are linked in a global value chain than to those that are not involved in production sharing. This study builds on the earlier studies of the relationship between intra-MNE product flows and knowledge flows in multiple ways. First, it separately examines the relationship for high-tech and low-tech manufacturing industries, and finds that knowledge services from HQ that could be combined with knowledge of the subsidiary, such as R&D services, are primarily associated with production sharing with subsidiaries in high-tech manufacturing industries, which are assumed to be more technologically capable. Likewise, it finds that knowledge services from HQ that might be considered to be more passively received from the parent, such as industrial-type maintenance and design, are primarily associated with subsidiaries in low-tech manufacturing industries, which are assumed to be less technologically capable. Second, this study is the first one, to our knowledge, that gauges intra-firm knowledge flows using dollar-denominated measures of HQ services provided by parents to their subsidiaries.     

Underprotection of Unpredictable Statistical Lives Compared to Predictable Ones

Existing ethical discussion considers the differences in care for identified versus statistical lives. However, there has been little attention to the different degrees of care that are taken for different kinds of statistical lives. Here we argue that for a given number of statistical lives at stake, there will sometimes be different, and usually greater, care taken to protect predictable statistical lives, in which the number of lives that will be lost can be predicted fairly accurately, than for unpredictable statistical lives, where the lives are at stake because of a low‐probability event, such that most likely no one will be affected by the decision but with low probability some lives will be at stake. One reason for this difference is the statistical challenge of estimating low probabilities, and in particular the tendency of common approaches to underestimate these probabilities. Another is the existence of rational incentives to treat unpredictable risks as if the probabilities were lower than they are. Some of these factors apply outside the pure economic context, to institutions, individuals, and governments. We argue that there is no ethical reason to treat unpredictable statistical lives differently from predictable statistical lives. Moreover, lives that are unpredictable from the perspective of an individual agent may become predictable when aggregated to the level of a societal decision. Underprotection of unpredictable statistical lives is a form of market failure that may need to be corrected by altering regulation, introducing compulsory liability insurance, or other social policies.