合理发展:提升中国基础教育质量的新思路

未来中国基础教育质量的提升必须走合理发展之路,满足未来社会发展与人的发展的双重需要。从1986年中国《义务教育法》颁布以后,中国基础教育经历了三个阶段,即普及发展阶段、均衡发展阶段以及以后的合理发展阶段。所谓的合理发展就是符合人的发展之理,具体表现为拒斥蒙昧主义、遵循规律合理性原则;批判现实功利主义,遵循发展合理性原则;抵制浪漫主义,遵循实践合理性原则。合理发展的基本任务是培养目标要照顾社会发展与人的发展的双重需要,人的发展之理意味着学习的意义在于完善自己、发展自己,基础教育实践样态要以"学"为重心。     

Estimation of the cumulative incidence function under multiple dependent and independent censoring mechanisms

Competing risks occur in a time-to-event analysis in which a patient can experience one of several types of events. Traditional methods for handling competing risks data presuppose one censoring process, which is assumed to be independent. In a controlled clinical trial, censoring can occur for several reasons: some independent, others dependent. We propose an estimator of the cumulative incidence function in the presence of both independent and dependent censoring mechanisms. We rely on semi-parametric theory to derive an augmented inverse probability of censoring weighted (AIPCW) estimator. We demonstrate the efficiency gained when using the AIPCW estimator compared to a non-augmented estimator via simulations. We then apply our method to evaluate the safety and efficacy of three anti-HIV regimens in a randomized trial conducted by the AIDS Clinical Trial Group, ACTG A5095.     

多重身份的复合--论唐顺之对曾巩散文的评价

唐顺之作为一名笃诚的心学家、理学家，势必会从思想价值的角度对文学作品进行评价。同时他又是一个优秀的八股文名家、古文评点家，有时又会摆脱心学和理学的思维模式，从文学自身的角度考量创作。受此多重身份的复合影响，唐顺之对道学气息浓厚而艺术性较差的曾巩散文进行评价时，就显得颇为矛盾：既认为“三代以下之文未有如南丰”，又以为曾巩散文法度平实，缺少变化，只能居于唐宋八家之末。     

新媒介背景的儿童类纸质媒体发展取向

数字媒介技术的革新加剧了“图像革命”，造成了人的思考能力的滑坡．这一影响加之于儿童则更加明显。儿童作为特殊且脆弱的社会群体，极易陷入新媒介所搅动的文化漩涡中，传统阅读这一儿童基础性认知技能遭遇到严峻考验。儿童类纸质媒体应充分发挥独有优势，与儿童类数字媒体展开错位竞争。从儿童文化内容的创作生产、儿童文化产品的销售渠道、儿童文化消费的最终实现三个层面完成自身的发展与跨越。     

Tapping into English Language Learners' (ELLs') Prior Knowledge in Social Studies Instruction

Second language research and Culturally Relevant Pedagogy have shown a consensus that ELLs who have studied social studies in their home countries will have a better chance of understanding social studies concepts and quickly catching up to their native English-speaking peers. This article discusses strategies to make good use of ELLs' prior knowledge, native language and culture, and previous literacy to teach social studies concepts meaningfully and effectively to this group of students.     

论古美关系发展历程

古巴自革命胜利之日起,即受到了美国的封锁打压.但与美国咫尺之隔的古巴,却一直不甘妥协,从而使古巴的社会主义制度得以生存,并取得了一定的进展.     

民众知识形态描述

本文对民众知识的存在、层次、思维、内容、传承等形态进行了粗略的描述 ,提出了多种相应的认识推论 ,对民众知识概念及其所关涉的一些问题给予了提示性的回答     

对赫哲族聚居区"十五"期间经济和社会发展的调查分析

本文作者在"十五"期间深入赫哲族聚居区,对赫哲族人民在"十五"期间经济和社会生活各方面所取得的成就进行了调查和分析,向我们展示了赫哲族在"十五"期间全面建设小康社会取得的新成就.     

游牧经济的机动性分析--以古代蒙古族的游牧经济为例

1800年以前,世界的军事优势一直控制在生活在亚欧大陆腹地的游牧民族手中.在此前两千五百多年间,游牧民族曾经在亚欧大陆纵横驰骋,东亚、南亚、西亚和欧洲的许多农业帝国纷纷被来自草原的游牧民族所吞并,其原因何在呢?本文认为,这正是游牧民族独特的生产方式赋予游牧民族的灵活的机动性所致.     

Mixed-effects Models with Skewed Distributions for Time-varying Decay Rate in HIV Dynamics

After initiation of treatment, HIV viral load has multiphasic changes, which indicates that the viral decay rate is a time-varying process. Mixed-effects models with different time-varying decay rate functions have been proposed in literature. However, there are two unresolved critical issues: (i) it is not clear which model is more appropriate for practical use, and (ii) the model random errors are commonly assumed to follow a normal distribution, which may be unrealistic and can obscure important features of within- and among-subject variations. Because asymmetry of HIV viral load data is still noticeable even after transformation, it is important to use a more general distribution family that enables the unrealistic normal assumption to be relaxed. We developed skew-elliptical (SE) Bayesian mixed-effects models by considering the model random errors to have an SE distribution. We compared the performance among five SE models that have different time-varying decay rate functions. For each model, we also contrasted the performance under different model random error assumptions such as normal, Student-t, skew-normal, or skew-t distribution. Two AIDS clinical trial datasets were used to illustrate the proposed models and methods. The results indicate that the model with a time-varying viral decay rate that has two exponential components is preferred. Among the four distribution assumptions, the skew-t and skew-normal models provided better fitting to the data than normal or Student-t model, suggesting that it is important to assume a model with a skewed distribution in order to achieve reasonable results when the data exhibit skewness.