Using Multiple Methods to Provide Prediction Bands of K-12 Enrollment Projections

Population Research and Policy Review - Often, demographers charged with projecting enrollments for school districts are asked to provide a range of future enrollments, as point estimates are not...     

Australia’s national urban policy: The smart cities agenda in perspective

The Australian Government's attempts at national urban policy have been sporadic and inconsistent, under the constraints of constitutional, financial, ideological and political factors. This paper concerns the recent resurgence of national urban policy under the rubric of “smart cities” adopted by the Turnbull Government and carried on by the incumbent Morrison Government. It investigates how this round of smart cities agenda articulates with Australia's political tradition of national urban policy to seek continuity and change, through comparing historical policies, unpacking major smart cities programmes, identifying explanatory factors and critically commenting on its innovation and legacy. Drawing upon these analyses, this paper argues that understanding the smart cities agenda needs to move beyond the political, ideological “to-and-fro” pendulum to national urban policy observed in history. Rather, it resonates with a globalised policy norm established upon the city-based global integration and competition, driven by an imperative of transitioning to a knowledge economy and pursuing innovation capacity. It is too early to judge whether the smart cities agenda will bring changes to Australian cities in the way it wishes, since it involves long-term infrastructure investment and urban development projects. However, a comprehensive and consistent national urban policy to govern the Australian system of cities and towns has not been established yet.     

Industrial Policy Capture in Taiwan and South Korea

Whatever the theoretical merits of an industrial policy, in practice state incentives in support of infant industry are difficult to withdraw once they have been granted. Infant maturation is thereby delayed, resulting in ‘policy capture’ which confers rents on the assisted firms at the expense of consumers and/or taxpayers. The process is well-documented in poorly managed economies pursuing autarkic industrial policies (Auty, 1994a). This article examines evidence of policy capture in well-managed economies pursuing competitive industrial policies. Examples are drawn from the heavy (and chemical) industry drives of South Korea (hereafter Korea) and Taiwan, but the research is first set in the context of the industrial policy debate.     

The effect of omitted covariates in marginal and partially conditional recurrent event analyses

There have been many advances in statistical methodology for the analysis of recurrent event data in recent years. Multiplicative semiparametric rate-based models are widely used in clinical trials, as are more general partially conditional rate-based models involving event-based stratification. The partially conditional model provides protection against extra-Poisson variation as well as event-dependent censoring, but conditioning on outcomes post-randomization can induce confounding and compromise causal inference. The purpose of this article is to examine the consequences of model misspecification in semiparametric marginal and partially conditional rate-based analysis through omission of prognostic variables. We do so using estimating function theory and empirical studies.

     

A comparative study of confidence intervals to assess biosimilarity from analytical data

Assessment of analytical similarity of tier 1 quality attributes is based on a set of hypotheses that tests the mean difference of reference and test products against a margin adjusted for standard deviation of the reference product. Thus, proper assessment of the biosimilarity hypothesis requires statistical tests that account for the uncertainty associated with the estimations of the mean differences and the standard deviation of the reference product. Recently, a linear reformulation of the biosimilarity hypothesis has been proposed, which facilitates development and implementation of statistical tests. These statistical tests account for the uncertainty in the estimation process of all the unknown parameters. In this paper, we survey methods for constructing confidence intervals for testing the linearized reformulation of the biosimilarity hypothesis and also compare the performance of the methods. We discuss test procedures using confidence intervals to make possible comparison among recently developed methods as well as other previously developed methods that have not been applied for demonstrating analytical similarity. A computer simulation study was conducted to compare the performance of the methods based on the ability to maintain the test size and power, as well as computational complexity. We demonstrate the methods using two example applications. At the end, we make recommendations concerning the use of the methods.     

INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND LABOR‐MARKET DISCRIMINATION

Discrimination reduces the matching probability and output in the skill‐intensive differentiated‐product sector so that discrimination‐induced comparative advantage may overshadow technological comparative advantage in determining the pattern of trade. Trade liberalization generates a decrease in the skilled‐worker wage gap in the country that is an exporter of goods from the simple sector but increases it in the country that is a net exporter of differentiated products. Trade liberalization has an opposite effect on firms. In the country that is an exporter of simple goods, trade liberalization reduces the profits of the nondiscriminatory firms by more than those of the discriminatory firms. (JEL F16, F66, J71)     

Viral video ‘blood chocolate’ activism,millennial anti-trafficking,and the neoliberal resurgence of shaming

Viral videos offer contemporary activists a nimble, provocative tool with which to disseminate humanitarian messages. This article historicizes anti-trafficking video media that imagine a new potential with which to alter behavioral norms around cocoa and chocolate. The article engages theories and approaches to historical and contemporary modalities of naming and shaming, spanning three centuries to the present day. Videos are examined for style, format, and content, with the view to describing a ‘blood chocolate’ visual and textual metonymy. Recurring themes include transnational power, corporate responsibility, and the horrific scale of exploitation. But viral videos also appear deeply influenced by neoliberal economics that celebrate lawful enterprise and promote consumer-driven solutions to exploitative child labor.     

Relationship of bird richness,abundance and assemblage to the built environment in a small island tropical urban setting: a Suva,Fiji case study

There have been few studies investigating the relationship between the built environment and the status of bird distributions in small island tropical urban areas. We present a study investigating the relationship between bird species richness, abundance and assemblage to the built environment in Suva, Fiji. Field surveys were taken at 54 randomly selected sites throughout the city, stratified by three building density classes and the central business district (CBD). At each site bird counts were recorded, along with environmental data such as average building height, within a 150 m radius. Land-use information was obtained from screen digitized high-resolution satellite imagery within the same radius. Distance to undeveloped patches of land within the urban area was calculated using a GIS. Analysis of the effects of the built environment was carried out for all species, and for exotic and native species separately. Abundance of exotics was significantly higher in the central business district (CBD) than all other urban density classes, and significantly higher than natives in all other density classes. We found a negative relationship between native species richness and distance to undeveloped patches, but no relationship for exotics. Species assemblage was not related to urban density class. We conclude that the status of native and exotic bird species in Suva is similar to what has been found in urban areas in temperate climates, and conservation efforts should focus on minimizing the amount of heavily urbanized “core areas” and protecting undeveloped areas of forested vegetation to improve bird biodiversity in small tropical islands cities.

     

Vegetation on and around large-scale buildings positively influences native tropical bird abundance and bird species richness

High population growth in the tropics is driving urbanisation, removing diverse natural ecosystems. This is causing native species to suffer while introduced synanthropes flourish. City planners are developing urban greenspace networks, in part trying to address this issue. Architects contribute to these greenspace networks by designing elevated and ground level green spaces on large-scale buildings. However, little evidence is available on whether building green spaces support native fauna. This is true for birds in tropical Singapore that support important ecosystem services and have existence value. Therefore, in this study, we conducted bird surveys and statistical analyses to determine, if and how vegetation on three building green space types (ground gardens, roof gardens and green walls) have a positive impact on native or introduced bird species. We found that elevated greenery (roof gardens and green walls) on large-scale buildings supported a higher richness of birds and abundance of urban native birds than control roofs and walls without vegetation. Ground gardens supported similar levels of native species as roof gardens but also a larger proportion of generalist synanthropes. However, we found no tropical forest habitat specialists across any space type. Therefore, we recommend roof gardens and ground gardens as a potential space for urban natives outside of a less competitive ground-level urban environment. Our study also found certain building design elements (height of elevated space, presence of specific plants) supported different species groups. Therefore, we suggest that these ecological requirements for different species groups are considered when designing a building’s green space.