Overconfidence in absolute and relative performance: The regression hypothesis and Bayesian updating

Studies have found that people are overconfident in estimation involving difficult tasks but underconfident in easy tasks. Conversely, they are overconfident in placing themselves in easy tasks but underconfident in hard tasks. These findings can be explained by a regression hypothesis that implies random errors in estimation as well as by rational Bayesian updating (that implies no random error). We test these hypotheses in five experiments. We find overconfidence in estimation involving hard tasks but underconfidence in easy tasks. However, for placement (involving both easy and hard tasks) we find no overconfidence, regression effects due to low and high anchor points, and extreme underconfidence when people choose between multiple alternatives. On the other hand, when given precise information about absolute performance, people’s re-assessments of relative performance are consistent with the Bayesian model. Since placement judgments are important in many competitive settings, our results emphasize the need for more research to identify their determinants.     

Going Back Home? Changing Demography and Geography of Mexican Return Migration

Return migration has been a constant feature of Mexico?CUS migration patterns, but its characteristics have changed sharply with time. We use the Mexican censuses and counts of 1995, 2000, 2010, and the complete set of individual and household records of the 2005 Population Count to explore the demographic characteristics of returnees in the context of tighter border control and rising levels of forced return migration. Involuntary and therefore unplanned return is likely to mean greater difficulties of incorporation into the community of origin. The study of the effects of the militarization of the US?CMexico border on migration patterns has focused on the US side. We contribute to this literature by focusing on the Mexican side. We consider the intensity and type of previous migration to the US as compared to current return migration, and State of origin and destination. Our data suggest that particularly attractive destinations for returnees are border cities, prosperous communities and growing metropolitan areas. Findings suggest changes in the demographic composition and geographic distribution of returnees. The discordance between the patterns of outmigration and return is a telling indicator of changes in the overall migration relationship between Mexico and the US. The patterns for 2005 are also observed in 2010 even if the absolute number of inter-censal returnees increased threefold over the period. Finally, we argue that focusing on destinations of return instead of areas of emigration will contribute to a more comprehensive understanding on the nature of future return migration to Mexico and its policy implications.     

Reducing Palilalia by Presenting Tact Corrections to Young Children with Autism

Palilalia, the delayed repetition of words or phrases, occurs frequently among individuals with autism and developmental disabilities. The current study used a combined multiple baseline and reversal design to investigate the effectiveness of presenting tacts as corrections for palilalia. During baseline, five preschoolers with autism emitted high rates of palilalia and low rates of mands and tacts during play and instructional activities. During treatment, when experimenters presented opportunities to echoically tact actions and objects following the emission of palilalia, its frequency decreased to low and stable levels and mands and tacts increased. Functional relationships between the tact corrections and emissions of palilalia, mands, and tacts were established during reversals to baseline and treatment conditions. Similar trends in responding were found for frequency of palilalia, mands, and tacts in non-treatment settings.     

The effects of economic circumstances on British students' mental and physical health

Three-hundred sixty British university students completed a questionnaire providing information on demographic characteristics, financial circumstances, smoking, and drug and alcohol use. A 14-item inventory of physical symptoms, the short form 36 health survey (SF-36), and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) were used to assess their physical and psychological well-being. Except for physical functioning, all subscales of the SF-36 and the GHQ indicated levels of health significantly below population norms matched for age and sex. Poorer mental health was related to longer working hours outside the university and difficulty in paying bills. Students who had considered abandoning study for financial reasons had poorer mental health, lower levels of social functioning and vitality, and poorer physical health as indicated by variables on the SF-36. They were also heavier smokers. Students' personal debt was significantly associated with their knowing people involved in prostitution, crime, or drug dealing to help support themselves financially.     

Total System Performance Assessment for Waste Disposal Using a Logic Tree Approach

The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has sponsored the development of a model to assess the long-term, overall performance of the candidate spent fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal facility at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The model simulates the processes that lead to HLW container corrosion, HLW mobilization from the spent fuel, and transport by groundwater, and contaminated groundwater usage by future hypothetical individuals leading to radiation doses to those individuals. The model must incorporate a multitude of complex, coupled processes across a variety of technical disciplines. Furthermore, because of the very long time frames involved in the modeling effort (10⁴ years), the relative lack of directly applicable data, and many uncertainties and variabilities in those data, a probabilistic approach to model development was necessary. The developers of the model chose a logic tree approach to represent uncertainties in both conceptual models and model parameter values. The developers felt the logic tree approach was the most appropriate. This paper discusses the value and use of logic trees applied to assessing the uncertainties in HLW disposal, the components of the model, and a few of the results of that model. The paper concludes with a comparison of logic trees and Monte Carlo approaches.     

Risk Assessment Based on Financial Data: Market Response to Airline Accidents

The risk of catastrophic failures, for example in the aviation and aerospace industries, can be approached from different angles (e.g., statistics when they exist, or a detailed probabilistic analysis of the system). Each new accident carries information that has already been included in the experience base or constitutes new evidence that can be used to update a previous assessment of the risk. In this paper, we take a different approach and consider the risk and the updating from the investor's point of view. Based on the market response to past airplane accidents, we examine which ones have created a surprise response and which ones are considered part of the risk of the airline business as previously assessed. To do so, we quantify the magnitude and the timing of the observed market response to catastrophic accidents, and we compare it to an estimate of the response that would be expected based on the true actual cost of the accident including direct and indirect costs (full-cost information response). First, we develop a method based on stock market data to measure the actual market response to an accident and we construct an estimate of the full-cost information response to such an event. We then compare the two figures for the immediate and the long-term response of the market for the affected firm, as well as for the whole industry group to which the firm belongs. As an illustration, we analyze a sample of ten fatal accidents experienced by major US domestic airlines during the last seven years. In four cases, we observed an abnormal market response. In these instances, it seems that the shareholders may have updated their estimates of the probability of a future accident in the affected airlines or more generally of the firm's future business prospects. This market reaction is not always easy to explain much less to anticipate, a fact which management should bear in mind when planning a firm's response to such an event.     

A Critical Review of Research in Marketing

An historical review of research in three major sub-fields within marketing: market structure and segmentation, market networks and interfirm relationships, and market orientation and the implementation of the marketing concept, suggests that there remain a number of key issues in terms of significance and interpretation. It is noteworthy that these issues, which have important strategic and managerial implications have not, in general, been reflected in the content of key marketing textbooks. A number of more general issues can be derived which are relevant not only to future research in the marketing arena but also the wider context of strategy research.     

Team resilience: A scoping review of conceptual and empirical work

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this scoping review was to examine the literature on team resilience to gain insight into current thinking regarding its definition and conceptualisation, and to identify how researchers have operationalised and measured this concept. We conducted a systematic scoping review using the 5-phase approach proposed by Arksey and O’Malley. A total of seven databases were searched, followed by a citation search of eligible papers via Google Scholar. Of the 275 articles identified via the search process, 27 papers were deemed eligible for review. Several key findings regarding the literature on team resilience were observed: (i) definitions varied in terms of content (e.g. input or process), breadth (e.g. unidimensional versus multidimensional), and quality (e.g. essential and necessary attributes of key components); (ii) there was a predominance of single-level conceptualisations of team resilience; and (iii) there has been a reliance on cross-sectional research designs in empirical studies, which is incongruent with the dynamic nature of this concept. Key recommendations from this scoping review focus on definitional, theoretical, and methodological issues.     

Markov-chain monte carlo: Some practical implications of theoretical results

We review and discuss some recent progress in the theory of Markov-chain Monte Carlo applications, particularly oriented to applications in statistics. We attempt to assess the relevance of this theory for practical applications.