“Take-the-Best” and Other Simple Strategies: Why and When they Work “Well” with Binary Cues

The effectiveness of decision rules depends on characteristics of both rules and environments. A theoretical analysis of environments specifies the relative predictive accuracies of the “take-the-best” heuristic (TTB) and other simple strategies for choices between two outcomes based on binary cues. We identify three factors: how cues are weighted; characteristics of choice sets; and error. In the absence of error and for cases involving from three to five binary cues, TTB is effective across many environments. However, hybrids of equal weights (EW) and TTB models are more effective as environments become more compensatory. As error in the environment increases, the predictive ability of all models is systematically degraded. Indeed, using the datasets of Gigerenzer et al. (1999, Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart, New York: Oxford University Press), TTB and similar models do not predict much better than a naïve model that exploits dominance. Finally, we emphasize that the results reported here are conditional on binary cues.     

Peter C. Fishburn (1936–2021)

Theory and Decision -     

GETTING IT DONE: DYNAMIC INCENTIVES TO COMPLETE A PROJECT

A principal wants an agent to complete a project. The agent undertakes unobservable effort, which affects in each period the probability that the project is completed. We characterize the contracts that the principal sets, with and without commitment. With full commitment, the contract involves the agent's value and wage declining over time, in order to give the agent incentives to exert effort. The best sequentially rational equilibrium for the principal also involves the agent's wage declining over time, while the worst sequentially rational equilibrium for the principal has a constant wage (and is in fact the unique stationary equilibrium). The best (weakly) renegotiation‐proof equilibrium for the principal is achieved by a constant wage that maximizes the principal's payoff, conditional on wages being constant. We compare these solutions to the efficient outcome.     

Pediatric Emergency Department Visits for Mental Health Crisis: Prevalence of Cyber-Bullying in Suicidal Youth

The objective of this work is to (1) study the prevalence of cyber-bullying amongst adolescents referred by Pediatric Emergency Department (PED) for urgent psychiatric assessment and (2) to examine the association between cyber-bullying and suicidal behavior to assist emergency department professionals in screening for risk and triage. This is a retrospective study of patients referred by PED to an urgent psychiatric clinic. Data was extracted for those with bullying victimization. Clinical variables included demographics, reason for referral, type of bullying, substance use, abuse, past psychiatric history, diagnosis and outcome. The cyber-bullying group was compared to those with traditional bullying and a group with no-bullying. Data analysis was conducted using Chi squares, multinomial and bimodal logistic regression. The urgent psychiatric clinic assessed 805 patients in 24 months, the prevalence of bullying was 26.9 % (n = 217). The prevalence of Cyber-bullying was 13.5 % (n = 109) and traditional bullying was 13.4 % (n = 108). Cyber-bullying victims have more suicidal ideation (χ² = 7.82, p = .005; 85.3  vs. 69.4 %), more sexual abuse (χ² = 5.75, p = .02; 29.4  vs. 15.7 %), more emotional abuse (χ² = 10.8, p = .01; 30.3  vs. 12.0 %) and physical abuse (χ² = 6.13, p = .01; 27.5  vs. 13.9 %) and a higher inpatient admission rate. Suicidal ideation is the presenting problem in more than two-thirds of patients, especially females, with history of cyber-bullying who present to the PED. Screening questions about cyber-bullying could assist emergency room professionals in establishing risk and making triage decisions.     

Ethnic differences in the labour market: a comparison of the samples of anonymized records and Labour Force Survey

The public use sample from the 1991 UK census makes it possible to conduct individual level analyses of ethnic minorities' educational and occupational attainments. Unfortunately, however, the census asked only about higher level qualifications obtained after reaching 18 years of age. A comparison with the Labour Force Surveys (LFSs) shows that the census gives in some respects a misleading impression of qualifications among the first-generation members of ethnic minorities: the LFS data show that ethnic minorities tend to be more polarized in their qualifications than the British-born whites, with relatively large proportions at the two extremes, either with degrees or with no qualifications at all. It follows that the census's treatment of qualifications may tend to exaggerate the scale of disadvantage of ethnic minorities in the labour market, and particularly in access to the salariat where qualifications play a particularly large role in recruitment. Regression analyses of sample of anonymized records and LFS data confirm these expectations although they indicate that the results of the census are not seriously misleading as regards the pattern of ethnic disadvantages in the competition to avoid unemployment. The LFS data also confirm earlier findings that the ethnic penalties are in general of similar magnitude among the second generation to those among the first generation, despite the substantial equalization of educational experience that has taken place. There is some evidence that disadvantages in access to the salariat may have been reduced, but this is counterbalanced by the evidence that disadvantages in the avoidance of unemployment may have deteriorated.     

Understanding the Adoption Process of National Security Technology: An Integration of Diffusion of Innovations and Volitional Behavior Theories

After the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the U.S. government initiated several national security technology adoption programs. The American public, however, has been skeptical about these initiatives and adoption of national security technologies has been mandated, rather than voluntary. We propose and test a voluntary behavioral intention formation model for the adoption of one type of new security technology: portable radiation detectors. Portable radiation detectors are an efficient way of detecting radiological and nuclear threats and could potentially prevent loss of life and damage to individuals’ health. However, their functioning requires that a critical mass of individuals use them on a daily basis. We combine the explanatory advantages of diffusion of innovation with the predictive power of two volitional behavior frameworks: the theory of reasoned action and the health belief model. A large sample survey (N = 1,482) investigated the influence of factors identified in previous diffusion of innovation research on portable radiation detector adoption intention. Results indicated that nonfinancial incentives, as opposed to financial incentives, should be emphasized in persuasive communications aimed at fostering adoption. The research provides a new integration of diffusion of innovation elements with determinants of volitional behavior from persuasion literature, and offers recommendations on effective communication about new security technologies to motivate public adoption and enhance national safety.     

Preference Functions for Spatial Risk Analysis

When outcomes are defined over a geographic region, measures of spatial risk regarding these outcomes can be more complex than traditional measures of risk. One of the main challenges is the need for a cardinal preference function that incorporates the spatial nature of the outcomes. We explore preference conditions that will yield the existence of spatial measurable value and utility functions, and discuss their application to spatial risk analysis. We also present a simple example on household freshwater usage across regions to demonstrate how such functions can be assessed and applied.     

Is that all there is? The concept of care and the dialectic of critique

Recognition of the usefulness of critical social analysis for gerontology has been increasing just as a range of new problems, ranging from globalization to the anti-aging movement, are posing fresh questions about ideology, legitimation and inequality for the study of aging. Such problems and questions represent the negative moment of critique in the theory–practice dialectic. As is generally true of critical theory, in critical gerontology it is rare to find research that reflects a positive movement toward emancipatory change. Yet gerontology is one of the fields that offers special opportunities for critiquing the status quo of aging and elders in society, envisioning new possibilities for aging and developing practices that produce positive change. This paper describes the movement of our own thinking and work, away from a primary focus on analysis and critique and toward an embrace of the possibilities of generating and sustaining change in organizational care settings. We argue that principles of critical developmental and social theory can be used to reframe the concept of care, and we describe briefly how the methodology of action research can be applied in efforts to create new opportunities and possibilities in the everyday experience of elders in long-term care. In our work, we are learning how a constructive theory–practice dialectic can be initiated when critical principles are applied to a practical and urgent domain — the domain of interpersonal care within long-term care institutions for elders.