中国农村最低生活保障标准研究

随着经济的发展,国家扶贫力度的加大,中国贫困人口分布呈现出分散分布的格局。新时期扶贫的思路转变为将农村贫困人口纳入最低生活保障制度范畴。东部沿海经济发展较好的城市已逐步在建立农村最低生活保障制度。农村最低生活保障制度的建立为缓解农村贫困提供了美好的蓝图,但有许多问题需要解决。其中,最低生活保障的标准怎么制定是一个关键问题,也是国际社会比较关注的焦点。本文拟就在新世纪提高农村扶贫标准政策下制定农村最低生活保障标准的相关问题进行探讨。     

A new heteroscedastic regression to analyze mass loss of wood in civil construction in Brazil

A heteroscedastic regression based on the odd log-logistic Marshall–Olkin normal (OLLMON) distribution is defined by extending previous models. Some structural properties of this distribution are presented. The estimation of the parameters is addressed by maximum likelihood. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and some scenarios, various simulations investigate the performance of the heteroscedastic OLLMON regression. We use residual analysis to detect influential observations and to check the model assumptions. The new regression explains the mass loss of different wood species in civil construction in Brazil.     

Governance Structure,Innovation and Internationalization: Evidence From India

We examine the impact of firm-level governance structure on the innovation and internationalization strategies of emerging market firms. We propose that in the case of emerging market firms, governance is a response to the prevailing institutional environment and affects the innovation and internationalization strategies of firms. Based on a longitudinal sample of 16,337 firm-year observations of Indian listed firms over a year time period from 2002 to 2009, we find a positive effect of family ownership and group affiliation on R&D intensity and new foreign investments. Institutional ownership also positively affects new foreign investments, but has no effect on R&D intensity. Further, we find that R&D intensity interacts with family ownership, institutional ownership and group affiliation in affecting new foreign investments.     

Designing a Decision-Making Process for a Network Administrative Organization: A Case Study of the National Quality Forum’s Consensus Development Process

In 1999 the health care industry created the National Quality Forum—a network administrative organization—to address issues of health care quality in a new way by bringing together organizations from the public and private sectors and providing them with a forum to discuss and debate measures of quality, and ultimately, to effect change. Little, however, is known about the decision making processes of network administrative organizations despite the fact that their decisions may have far-reaching impacts on public policy. Using a grounded theory approach, this paper examines the creation and development of the NQF’s Consensus Development Process and identifies and discusses five key principles that underlie the process. This paper argues that in order to create a decision-making process for a network administrative organization that is balanced and inclusive of diverse interests a leader must consider and incorporate principles that are representative of the larger environment.     

Consolidation and fragmentation in environmental scanning: A review and research agenda

Environmental scanning is a broadly defined concept, having first received attention from scholars in the late 1960s. Over the years a number of similar and overlapping constructs have emerged in management literature. The aim of this study, via a systematic review and thematic analysis of relevant empirical research, is to consolidate foundation environmental scanning knowledge, demonstrate how scanning research has developed and fragmented over time, and propose an agenda for future research. The first contribution of our review is a new typology of environmental scanning research made up of five discrete research views, which provides a more comprehensive and contemporary overview of the field than previous studies. The second is a proposed agenda for future research that explicitly acknowledges the role of technology, an area that is presently underdeveloped in foundation scanning literature. The third contribution is to signpost future directions for research on scanning and organisational performance using a number of theoretical perspectives. The overall outcome of our review is to move scanning research on from increasingly incremental contributions concerned with context to a place where the changing role of technology and the mechanisms through which environmental scanning contributes to competitive advantage can be more thoroughly understood.     

Cross‐Milieu Terrorist Collaboration: Using Game Theory to Assess the Risk of a Novel Threat

This article uses a game‐theoretic approach to analyze the risk of cross‐milieu terrorist collaboration—the possibility that, despite marked ideological differences, extremist groups from very different milieus might align to a degree where operational collaboration against Western societies becomes possible. Based upon theoretical insights drawn from a variety of literatures, a bargaining model is constructed that reflects the various benefits and costs for terrorists’ collaboration across ideological milieus. Analyzed in both sequential and simultaneous decision‐making contexts and through numerical simulations, the model confirms several theoretical arguments. The most important of these is that although likely to be quite rare, successful collaboration across terrorist milieus is indeed feasible in certain circumstances. The model also highlights several structural elements that might play a larger role than previously recognized in the collaboration decision, including that the prospect of nonmaterial gains (amplification of terror and reputational boost) plays at least as important a role in the decision to collaborate as potential increased capabilities does. Numerical simulation further suggests that prospects for successful collaboration over most scenarios (including operational) increase when a large, effective Islamist terrorist organization initiates collaboration with a smaller right‐wing group, as compared with the other scenarios considered. Although the small number of historical cases precludes robust statistical validation, the simulation results are supported by existing empirical evidence of collaboration between Islamists and right‐ or left‐wing extremists. The game‐theoretic approach, therefore, provides guidance regarding the circumstances under which such an unholy alliance of violent actors is likely to succeed.     

Incorporating Time‐Dose‐Response into Legionella Outbreak Models

A novel method was used to incorporate in vivo host–pathogen dynamics into a new robust outbreak model for legionellosis. Dose‐response and time‐dose‐response (TDR) models were generated for Legionella longbeachae exposure to mice via the intratracheal route using a maximum likelihood estimation approach. The best‐fit TDR model was then incorporated into two L. pneumophila outbreak models: an outbreak that occurred at a spa in Japan, and one that occurred in a Melbourne aquarium. The best‐fit TDR from the murine dosing study was the beta‐Poisson with exponential‐reciprocal dependency model, which had a minimized deviance of 32.9. This model was tested against other incubation distributions in the Japan outbreak, and performed consistently well, with reported deviances ranging from 32 to 35. In the case of the Melbourne outbreak, the exponential model with exponential dependency was tested against non‐time‐dependent distributions to explore the performance of the time‐dependent model with the lowest number of parameters. This model reported low minimized deviances around 8 for the Weibull, gamma, and lognormal exposure distribution cases. This work shows that the incorporation of a time factor into outbreak distributions provides models with acceptable fits that can provide insight into the in vivo dynamics of the host‐pathogen system.     

Flood Catastrophe Model for Designing Optimal Flood Insurance Program: Estimating Location‐Specific Premiums in the Netherlands

As flood risks grow worldwide, a well‐designed insurance program engaging various stakeholders becomes a vital instrument in flood risk management. The main challenge concerns the applicability of standard approaches for calculating insurance premiums of rare catastrophic losses. This article focuses on the design of a flood‐loss‐sharing program involving private insurance based on location‐specific exposures. The analysis is guided by a developed integrated catastrophe risk management (ICRM) model consisting of a GIS‐based flood model and a stochastic optimization procedure with respect to location‐specific risk exposures. To achieve the stability and robustness of the program towards floods with various recurrences, the ICRM uses stochastic optimization procedure, which relies on quantile‐related risk functions of a systemic insolvency involving overpayments and underpayments of the stakeholders. Two alternative ways of calculating insurance premiums are compared: the robust derived with the ICRM and the traditional average annual loss approach. The applicability of the proposed model is illustrated in a case study of a Rotterdam area outside the main flood protection system in the Netherlands. Our numerical experiments demonstrate essential advantages of the robust premiums, namely, that they: (1) guarantee the program's solvency under all relevant flood scenarios rather than one average event; (2) establish a tradeoff between the security of the program and the welfare of locations; and (3) decrease the need for other risk transfer and risk reduction measures.     

Building a Values‐Informed Mental Model for New Orleans Climate Risk Management

Individuals use values to frame their beliefs and simplify their understanding when confronted with complex and uncertain situations. The high complexity and deep uncertainty involved in climate risk management (CRM) lead to individuals’ values likely being coupled to and contributing to their understanding of specific climate risk factors and management strategies. Most mental model approaches, however, which are commonly used to inform our understanding of people's beliefs, ignore values. In response, we developed a “Values‐informed Mental Model” research approach, or ViMM, to elicit individuals’ values alongside their beliefs and determine which values people use to understand and assess specific climate risk factors and CRM strategies. Our results show that participants consistently used one of three values to frame their understanding of risk factors and CRM strategies in New Orleans: (1) fostering a healthy economy, wealth, and job creation, (2) protecting and promoting healthy ecosystems and biodiversity, and (3) preserving New Orleans’ unique culture, traditions, and historically significant neighborhoods. While the first value frame is common in analyses of CRM strategies, the latter two are often ignored, despite their mirroring commonly accepted pillars of sustainability. Other values like distributive justice and fairness were prioritized differently depending on the risk factor or strategy being discussed. These results suggest that the ViMM method could be a critical first step in CRM decision‐support processes and may encourage adoption of CRM strategies more in line with stakeholders’ values.     

What innovation managers really do: a multiple-case investigation into the informal role profiles of innovation managers

Over the last fifteen years companies tended to formalise their innovation management activities and to establish formal jobs like the innovation officer, the network manager or the innovation manager. Knowledge of the informal role profiles of these formal roles is still rare. HR and R&D Managers do not know which informal role profile might suit them best, thus having difficulties to assign the best candidates for jobs in innovation management. Researchers cannot help to resolve the problem. Our research answers the question what innovation managers really do, by analysing their tasks, skills and traits, theoretically based on informal role theories. Furthermore, we will analyse how these characteristics change with company size. To provide answers to our research questions we choose a multiple-case study approach. We found, among others, that innovation managers fulfil the role of the relationship and process promotor or a combination of both with the champion, but we also found, that the innovation manager’s roles profile becomes fuzzier with shrinking company size. Our results have practical implications for top management and also HR and R&D managers, enabling them to better select and steer employees in innovation management. Researchers will be able to build on our results because we offer a comprehensive understanding of the informal role profiles of innovation managers based on informal role theories.