Nesting patterns among Neotropical species assemblages: can reserves in urban areas be failing to protect anurans?

Nestedness among species assemblages implies that sites of lower species richness are subsets of richer sites in a regional species pool. This nestedness is a reflection of a non-random process of species loss as a consequence of factors that promote the disaggregation of assemblages. The impoverishment of assemblage diversity is more often observed in fragmented landscapes. This non-random process has important implications for conservation. We recorded 95 species of anurans across 22 protected areas, of which 11 sites were in an urban matrix and 11 were in a non-urban matrix. We found that sites in the urban matrix had lower richness and high values of nestedness with no spatial autocorrelation among geographic distances and species composition. Thus, species were non-randomly distributed across the landscape and a nested pattern was documented from non-urban matrix sites to urban matrix sites. The impoverishment of assemblages toward the urban matrix sites may suggest that protected areas in an urban matrix are less suitable for anuran conservation than those in a non-urban matrix sites. Both the ecological revitalization of protected areas in urban matrix and protection of non-urban forested sites are needed for the conservation of Neotropical anurans.     

The logic of counterfactual analysis in case‐study explanation

In this paper, we develop a set‐theoretic and possible worlds approach to counterfactual analysis in case‐study explanation. Using this approach, we first consider four kinds of counterfactuals: necessary condition counterfactuals, SUIN condition counterfactuals, sufficient condition counterfactuals, and INUS condition counterfactuals. We explore the distinctive causal claims entailed in each, and conclude that necessary condition and SUIN condition counterfactuals are the most useful types for hypothesis assessment in case‐study research. We then turn attention to the development of a rigorous understanding of the ‘minimal‐rewrite’ rule, linking this rule to insights from set theory about the relative importance of necessary conditions. We show why, logically speaking, a comparative analysis of two necessary condition counterfactuals will tend to favour small events and contingent happenings. A third section then presents new tools for specifying the level of generality of the events in a counterfactual. We show why and how the goals of formulating empirically important versus empirically plausible counterfactuals stand in tension with one another. Finally, we use our framework to link counterfactual analysis to causal sequences, which in turn provides advantages for conducting counterfactual projections.     

A new semiparametric Weibull cure rate model: fitting different behaviors within GAMLSS

ABSTRACT

We propose a new semiparametric Weibull cure rate model for fitting nonlinear effects of explanatory variables on the mean, scale and cure rate parameters. The regression model is based on the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape, for which any or all distribution parameters can be modeled as parametric linear and/or nonparametric smooth functions of explanatory variables. We present methods to select additive terms, model estimation and validation, where all computational codes are presented in a simple way such that any R user can fit the new model. Biases of the parameter estimates caused by models specified erroneously are investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. We illustrate the usefulness of the new model by means of two applications to real data. We provide computational codes to fit the new regression model in the R software.     

Listening to children: Evaluation of a positive parenting programme through art-based research

This paper presents data from a unique programme evaluation of the parenting programme titled ‘Learning together, growing as a family’ applied in 14 cities in Spain and targeting families at risk of neglectful behaviour. The programme evaluation is based on the voices of children using the qualitative methodology of art-based research. Eighty-six children 6–12 years of age were interviewed in groups. The outcomes of the evaluation reveal that children perceive improvements in the parental competencies of their parents and in themselves and that these changes serve as a catalyst for positive family change.     

Parametric Bayesian inference for Y-linked two-sex branching models

A Y-linked two-sex branching process with blind choice is a suitable model for analyzing the evolution of the number of carriers of two alleles of a Y-linked gene in a two-sex monogamous population where each female chooses her partner from among the male population without caring about his type (i.e., the allele he carries). This work focuses on the development of Bayesian inference for this model, considering a parametric framework with the reproduction laws belonging to the power series family of distributions. A sample is considered given by the observation of the total number of females and males (regardless of their types) up to some generation as well as the number of each type of male in the last generation. Using a simulation method based on the Gibbs sampler, we approximate the posterior distributions of the main parameters of this model. The accuracy of the procedure based on this sample is illustrated by way of a simulated example.     

Tempus Edax Rerum: Measuring the incumbency advantage in the U.S. House of Representatives

Many studies provide valuable insight on the electoral incumbency advantage; however, little work provides insight or an organized theory for how such an advantage develops for career politicians. We develop such a theory, arguing that to understand the incumbency advantage at the time of an electoral victory, it is necessary to consider the length of each specific congressional career. We find that the total share of the incumbent vote received has a curvilinear relationship with the number of years any House Member spends in office. Our findings also result in a better understanding of the incumbency advantage in the U.S. then previous conceptualizations and allows for comparisons of the incumbency advantage across the two Chambers of Congress, other elective offices, and even across democratic political systems.     

Coefficients of determinations for variable selection in the msae regression

Our objective is to modify a robust coefficient of determination for the minimum sum of absolute errors MSAE regression proposed by McKean and Sievers (1987) so that it satisfies all the desirable properties. We also propose an adjusted coefficient of determination that is appropriate for comparing several models with different number of variables. Further, it has the property that if it decreases with the addition of predictor variables to the model, then the contribution of these variables is statistically non-significant. We illustrate the results with an example.     

Authorship Trends in The Analysis of Verbal Behavior: 1982–2016

The Analysis of Verbal Behavior - The Analysis of Verbal Behavior (TAVB) is the only journal focused on theoretical and empirical research in verbal behavior. An assessment of authorship trends can...     

Managing ergonomics in the development of rotation between workstations in the automotive industry. A balance between health and traceability of tasks

Abstract When the subject rotation between workstations (job rotation) is inside the organizations it's seemed that technically there are lots of restrictions to the development of an adequate system of rotation. We went from the need for an advanced ergonomic study and even possible restrictions of versatility and training of employees. The implementation of the ideal system of rotation passes through stages of development and research ergonomic study of the level of employee versatility, awareness and discussion with employees, implementation of the proposed system, feedback and audits for maintenance of the ideal sequence and time of rotation. For the success of the project there is a need for multidisciplinary involvement in the areas of manufacturing engineering, industrial engineering, human resources, medical services and manufacturing. Rotation between the tasks may mean that a worker should conduct two or more different activities in different parts of the day (ie. change between activity A and activity B "between 1 hours and 2 hours interval). An important consideration is to ensure that different activities do not present the same ergonomic risk for the same body part. The tracing of the execution of the activity is an important factor for production processes. Thus it is possible to conduct appropriate levels of training for employees and ensure safe and sustainable processes in terms of workers' health, productivity and quality.