Transient animals in a resident population of snow geese: local emigration or heterogeneity?

The estimation of survival rates from analysis of recapture of individually marked animals assumes that all individuals are equally likely to be re-encountered. This assumption is frequently violated in natural populations due to movements to and from the sampling area. We evaluated potential sources of heterogeneity using data from recaptures of 36000 individually marked female lesser snow geese, Anser c. caerulescens , from an expanding population in northern Manitoba, Canada. By stratifying individuals according to marking age and origin (hatched at the colony or not), we assessed the degree to which variation in apparent survival reflected permanent or temporary differences in emigration and effects of handling. In general, for birds ringed as adults, estimated apparent survival rates were significantly lower during the first year after ringing than in subsequent years. By comparing birds ringed as adults (classified by origin) with those ringed as goslings, we were able to demonstrate that these differences are not due to permanent emigration from the colony by transient individuals or heterogeneity of individual capture probability, but more likely reflect differences among individuals in their response to initial marking. Approximately 25% of birds permanently emigrate from the sampling area following marking.     

Life change,health status and life satisfaction: A reconsideration

Recent research has suggested that life changes may be unrelated to health status indices and to overall satisfaction with life. Yet research has also reported that life changes appear to be related to measures of psychological distress. To attend further to clarification of the role of life change as a predictor of health status and life satisfaction, this paper examines the relationship between negative life change self-reports and indices of health status and life satisfaction. The data come from a survey of 1423 Northwestern Wisconsinites interviewed in 1974 by the Wisconsin Survey Research Laboratory. The findings indicate that self-reports of negative life changes were related to overall life satisfaction, controlling for health status, feelings of alienation/attachment, and personal disruption. Implications of the findings are discussed in conclusion.     

Robust hierarchical Bayes estimation of exchangeable means

Estimation of the mean of a multivariate normal distribution is considered. The components of the mean vector θ are assumed to be exchangeable; this is modelled in a hierarchical fashion with independent Cauchy distributions as the first-stage prior. The resulting generalized Bayes estimator is calculated and shown to be robust with respect to the presence of outlying means. Alternative estimators that have similar behaviour but are cheaper to compute are also derived.     

Middle mass and the pitt: a critical review of Peter Saunders's sociology of consumption

This review provides critical commentary on the sociology of consumption recently developed by Peter Saunders in the new edition of his Social Theory and the Urban Question and elsewhere. Comment is made on the politics of socialized consumption, the sociology of consumption sector cleavages and the concept of a privatized mode of consumption. Note is also made of the methodological critique of realism and the assertion of a Weberian alternative which underpins the contribution. It is argued that although the approach provides some insights it tends to get locked into a series of unproducive conceptual and methodological polarities in its attempt to undermine the supposed hegemonic position of Marxism within contemporary urban studies.     

Corporate planning in local government: Some measurement problems

A corporate planning system makes measurement demands on an organisation which it may not have met before. This paper describes these in the context of corporate planning in local government, and discusses some typical examples, especially as far as needs for services and the effects of providing them are concerned. It also deals with the extent to which choices can be measured, and with the constraints that a real-time decision system puts on the planner.     

CHARLES HENRY WICKENS: 1872–1939

An account of the life of the second Commonwealth Statistician, Charles Henry Wickens (1872–1939), has been given. After a primary school education in a Victorian country centre, Wickens became Associate of the Institute of Actuaries. Having joined the public service of Western Australia in 1897, he was appointed Compiler in the Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics in 1906; he served as Commonwealth Statistician and Actuary, 1922 to 1932, giving outstanding service as government adviser and head of an important government department. He was a leader among theoretical and practical economists. His contributions to the study of Australian demography, especially life tables and vital statistics, were of the highest quality and permanent value. He made also scholarly contributions to actuarial theory and to the popularization of the work of the Bureau.     

Statistical issues in epidemiologic studies of the health effects of ambient acid aerosols

Although the ecologic effects of acid rain have been widely reported, relatively little is known about the effects of acidic air pollution on human health. Some epidemiologic and animal studies suggest, however, that acidity is an important determinant of the respiratory health effects of aerosols. This paper reviews some of that evidence and discusses its implications for the design and analysis of epidemiologic studies. We contrast two types of exposure patterns: peak exposures associated with air pollution episodes, and chronic exposures resulting from persistently high levels of air pollutants. Recent work on the analysis of repeated categorical outcome variables provides new methods for the analysis of episode studies. Studies of long-term exposure require comparisons among population groups, and these comparisons can be subject to the design effects characteristic of multistage sample surveys. We examine the implications of these design effects for epidemiologic studies. Finally, the paper discusses the measurement errors induced by the use of outdoor measurements to quantify personal exposure to air pollutants. Recent work on methods for errors-in-variables problems may aid in assessing the effects of such errors on conventional analyses of air-pollution studies.