Development and Consideration of Global Policies for Managing the Future Risks of Poliovirus Outbreaks: Insights and Lessons Learned Through Modeling

The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life (i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to future analysts involved in similar complex decision-making processes.     

A comparison of objective and subjective measures of clinical competence

The purpose of this study was to determine if objective performance measures from a simulated patient practical examination were related to faculty subjective assessments of surgery students' performance. Another purpose was to determine if those students performing well on a simulated patient practical examination were the same students awarded honor ratings by faculty. Faculty ratings of students (n = 72) on history taking ability, physical exam skills, problem identification, use of investigations, problem integration, patient management, and patient relations skills were correlated with objective measures on these same criteria achieved on a practical exam employing three simulated patient cases. Correlations were also calculated to study the relationship between practical exam scores and honor rating recipients. Results indicated significant relationships between faculty subjective ratings and practical exam outcomes on all practical examination skills except physical exam skills and patient management skills. Findings also indicated the performance of honor students on the practical examination was significantly better than non-honor students on two skills: history-taking and patient relations. The implications of these research findings are discussed.     

‘Wallbanking’, innovativeness and computer attitudes: 25–40-year-old ATM-users on the spot

Attitudes towards ‘wallbanking’ (making use of banking services through an Automated Teller Machine (ATM)) and self-reported frequency of wallbanking have been related to attitudes towards innovations and towards computers. The investigation also included the perception of advantages as well as disadvantages of wallbanking, factors that determine one's choice of a bank, man-machine problems related to the use of an ATM, and demographic factors. Using a sample of 201 respondents in the age range of 25 to 40 years, structural equation modeling revealed that wallbanking attitudes have a major influence on the frequency of using ATMs. The innovativeness attitude ‘New is wasteful’ also showed a clear negative link with the frequency of wallbanking. On the other hand, the relationship between computer attitudes and the frequency of using ATMs had to be rejected. Income and education proved to have an indirect link with the frequency of wallbanking, which refines other research findings. These results may reflect specific financial management characteristics of the age group under investigation.     

Social representations of diversity: multi/intercultural education in a South African urban school 1

The story of School X started in South Africa in 1875. At that time, the school was built for white children only. More than hundred years later, the 1994 elections demarcated the end of the apartheid era and the school enrolled black Xhosa‐speaking children for the first time. As a result, in 2004, 90% of the students were black Xhosa‐speaking. The theoretical perspectives of our study are based on notions of multicultural and intercultural education, and of diversity. Our study is embedded in a socio‐constructivist inquiry paradigm. Using questionnaires and interviews, we aimed to understand the social representations regarding diversity of a principal, a teacher, seven students and four parents in a K‐7 open school. We examined diversity of values, cultures, religions, languages, attitudes, beliefs, behaviors, etc. regarding a multi/intercultural perspective in education. We attempted to discern what the participants’ understandings of diversity were, how they identified diversity, and why they justified their practices and actions with respect to diversity.

The song can only be beautiful if we all play the same tune. (Esmé Goosen, Multimedia, 2004)

This is the title of a painting that is part of an exhibition in Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Museum of Art, Port Elizabeth, South Africa     

Finding your way into employment against all odds? Successful job search of refugees in Austria

Labour market entry poses enormous challenges for recently arrived refugees, ranging from language barriers, devaluation of human capital, unfamiliarity with customs of the job search process to outright discrimination. How can refugees overcome these challenges and quickly enter gainful employment? In this paper, we draw on interviews with 26 male and female refugees from Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran, conducted in 2017 and 2018, who came to Austria in 2015 and 2014 and who have successfully entered employment. We depict refugees’ own perspectives on and strategies for fast job entry and integration. Personal agency and a proactive approach of seeking and seizing opportunities are key for overcoming initial barriers and entering upon positive integration pathways. At the same time, refugees’ personal agency is essential for establishing social ties to the host society, which also play a crucial role in early labour market integration. Finally, institutions of the Austrian labour market (the ‘apprenticeship’-system) interact with refugees’ agency in most intricate ways, both setting up nearly insurmountable barriers but also providing specific opportunities for refugees.     

PRODUCT DIVERSITY,DEMAND STRUCTURES,AND OPTIMAL TAXATION

This article studies optimal taxation in a general equilibrium macroeconomic model with endogenous entry. We compare the constant elasticity of substitution (CES) model to three alternative demand structures: oligopolistic competition in prices, oligopolistic competition in quantities, and translog preferences. Our economy is characterized by two distortions: a labor distortion due to the misalignment of markups on goods and leisure, and an entry distortion due to the misalignment of the consumer surplus effect and the profit destruction effect of entry. The two distortions interact in determining the wedge between the market‐driven and optimal level of product diversity. We show how optimal labor and entry taxes depend on the prevailing demand structure, the nature and size of entry costs, and the degree of substitutability between goods. (JEL E22, E61, E62)     

Some applications of nonlinear and non-Gaussian state–space modelling by means of hidden Markov models

Nonlinear and non-Gaussian state–space models (SSMs) are fitted to different types of time series. The applications include homogeneous and seasonal time series, in particular earthquake counts, polio counts, rainfall occurrence data, glacial varve data and daily returns on a share. The considered SSMs comprise Poisson, Bernoulli, gamma and Student-t distributions at the observation level. Parameter estimations for the SSMs are carried out using a likelihood approximation that is obtained after discretization of the state space. The approximation can be made arbitrarily accurate, and the approximated likelihood is precisely that of a finite-state hidden Markov model (HMM). The proposed method enables us to apply standard HMM techniques. It is easy to implement and can be extended to all kinds of SSMs in a straightforward manner.     

Robust variable selection with application to quality of life research

A large database containing socioeconomic data from 60 communities in Austria and Germany has been built, stemming from 18,000 citizens’ responses to a survey, together with data from official statistical institutes about these communities. This paper describes a procedure for extracting a small set of explanatory variables to explain response variables such as the cognition of quality of life. For better interpretability, the set of explanatory variables needs to be very small and the dependencies among the selected variables need to be low. Due to possible inhomogeneities within the data set, it is further required that the solution is robust to outliers and deviating points. In order to achieve these goals, a robust model selection method, combined with a strategy to reduce the number of selected predictor variables to a necessary minimum, is developed. In addition, this context-sensitive method is applied to obtain responsible factors describing quality of life in communities.     

Robust nonparametric tests for the two-sample location problem

We construct and investigate robust nonparametric tests for the two-sample location problem. A test based on a suitable scaling of the median of the set of differences between the two samples, which is the Hodges-Lehmann shift estimator corresponding to the Wilcoxon two-sample rank test, leads to higher robustness against outliers than the Wilcoxon test itself, while preserving its efficiency under a broad range of distributions. The good performance of the constructed test is investigated under different distributions and outlier configurations and compared to alternatives like the two-sample t-, the Wilcoxon and the median test, as well as to tests based on the difference of the sample medians or the one-sample Hodges-Lehmann estimators.