A Probabilistic Model of the Economic Risk to Britain's Railway Network from Bridge Scour During Floods

Scour (localized erosion by water) is an important risk to bridges, and hence many infrastructure networks, around the world. In Britain, scour has caused the failure of railway bridges crossing rivers in more than 50 flood events. These events have been investigated in detail, providing a data set with which we develop and test a model to quantify scour risk. The risk analysis is formulated in terms of a generic, transferrable infrastructure network risk model. For some bridge failures, the severity of the causative flood was recorded or can be reconstructed. These data are combined with the background failure rate, and records of bridges that have not failed, to construct fragility curves that quantify the failure probability conditional on the severity of a flood event. The fragility curves generated are to some extent sensitive to the way in which these data are incorporated into the statistical analysis. The new fragility analysis is tested using flood events simulated from a spatial joint probability model for extreme river flows for all river gauging sites in Britain. The combined models appear robust in comparison with historical observations of the expected number of bridge failures in a flood event. The analysis is used to estimate the probability of single or multiple bridge failures in Britain's rail network. Combined with a model for passenger journey disruption in the event of bridge failure, we calculate a system‐wide estimate for the risk of scour failures in terms of passenger journey disruptions and associated economic costs.     

Accepting and Negotiating Service Users' Choices in Mental Health Transition Meetings

Across Western welfare regimes, policies emphasize that service users should have more choices regarding their services. This article examines how service choices are presented, responded to and decided in interactions between service users and professionals in mental health transition meetings. Choice is often associated with consumerist user involvement ideas, but in mental health choice also relates to the democratic user involvement approach and to shared decision making between professionals and service users. The results of the study show that professionals construct service users as consumers by offering service options in choice making sequences, expecting users to make appropriate choices. Service users mostly act like consumers by responding to these choice options. However, the study also demonstrates that the professionals do not always accept the user's first choice but respond to them as non‐preferred. Sometimes, they also suggest choices on behalf of the users. In these ‘non‐accepting’ sequences, choices are negotiated in interaction between the parties, rather than users acting as autonomous choice makers. The sequences are based on two kinds of professional reasoning: first, the professional‐led needs assessment and, second, the structure of the service package that the user is being offered. This negotiation has elements of shared decision making and the ‘logic of care’. But it also has elements of paternalist control which challenge both consumerist and democratic service user involvement and suggests consideration of more collectively oriented service user actions.     

Native Migrant Labour in the Southern Alberta Sugar-beet Industry: Coercion and Paternalism in the Recruitment of Labour*

Les recherches commencent à révéler de façon de plus en plus évidente la présence des autochtones dans les emplois salariés au Canada. Bien que nous constations la participation des autochtones au travail salarié, nous savons peu de choses sur le rôle joué par l'État en vue de les mobiliser pour qu'ils travaillent dans l'industrie canadienne. À partir de l'exemple des autochtones qui sont venus dans le sud de l'Alberta au cours des années cinquante et soixante travailler dans l'industrie de la betterave à sucre, cet article analyse le rôle de l'État dans leur mobilisation. Nous montrons qu'à diffé-rents échelons l'État, par l'intermédiaire de comités de main-d'?uvre fédéraux et provinciaux ainsi que du ministère fédéral des Affaires indiennes, a eu recours à diverses mesures paternalistes et coer-citives pour aider les fermiers du sud de l'Alberta à recruter et à retenir ces travailleurs. L'une des principales mesures utilisées par les gouvernements fédéral et provincial pour pousser les autochtones àémigrer a été de priver de leurs prestations d'aide sociale ceux et celles que l'on jugeait aptes au travail. Research has begun to increasingly document Native peoples' participation in wage employment in Canada. Despite an acknowledgement of native participation in wage labour, little is known of the role of the state in mobilizing Native workers for Canadian industry. Using the case of Native migration to the southern Alberta sugar-beet industry in the 1950s and 1960s, this paper analyzes the role of the state in the mobilization of the native workers for employment. We show that the various levels of the state, acting through federal/provincial manpower committees and the Indian Affairs Branch of the federal government, used a variety of paternalistic and coercive measures to help farmers in southern Alberta recruit and retain Native workers. One of the main measures used by the federal and provincial governments to coerce Native people into migration was to cut off social assistance benefits to those Native people deemed to be employable.     

The Trial and Crucifixion of Jesus: A Modest Proposal

I model an attempt by radical parties to topple a modus vivendi between a ruling government and a moderate opposition group. Cooperation between the regime and the moderate opposition is possible if each player prefers mutual cooperation to mutual confrontation. If each player also prefers mutual confrontation to cooperating while the other defects then radical parties have a chance at breaking up this accord. Radical parties can succeed in bringing the government and opposition to mutual confrontation if they can agree on power-sharing arrangements after regime change. This paper also resolves central questions surrounding the trial and crucifixion of Jesus Christ. I use an institutional approach to infer player preferences from historical and biblical sources and then use game theory to model the interactions between participants in these events. In so doing, I clarify aspects of the Gospel narrative that have puzzled readers for the past 2000 years.     

Substance use and other factors associated with child welfare case duration: Looking beyond out of home care

Little is known about factors associated with child welfare case duration. Understanding factors associated with case duration may help stakeholders make more informed decisions about funding and service allocation and improve compliance with federal law. This study had two research questions: (1) What factors are associated with child welfare case duration? And (2) Do factors differ depending on whether children were placed exclusively with parents or with others (e.g. relatives and foster care) during the case? The study sample consisted of families (N = 874) with co-occurring child maltreatment and substance use in one midwestern state in the United States between 2007 and 2016. Linear regression models were used to identify correlates of case duration while controlling for child placement status. Overall, having a child under 1 year of age, benzodiazepine use, methamphetamine use and injection drug use were all associated with longer case duration, whereas marijuana use with no other substance use was associated with shorter case duration. Additionally, factors associated with case duration differed based on child placement status during the case. These findings suggest important heterogeneity in families involved with child welfare services and may allow for proactive mitigation of cases at greater risk.     

Independent child protection assessments: incorporating a therapeutic focus from an integrated service context

Assessment following serious child abuse is a significant activity for the social work, psychology and psychiatric professions. Notwithstanding the profound significance of the consequences for abused children and their families from recommendations made by such assessments, there is little research which examines the process and outcome of child protection assessments. This paper describes the professional practice principles of an independent assessment team and presents preliminary findings from a retrospective examination of 160 major independent assessments undertaken over a period of 11 years. The review suggests that nearly 60% of the families gained some therapeutic benefit from the assessment process and outlines the areas in which such benefits occurred. It is argued that structuring assessments in a way which maximizes the possibility of parents/carers effecting changes in problem areas is the essence of a constructive partnership relation with families. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

All‐Pay Contests

This paper studies a class of games, “all‐pay contests,” which capture general asymmetries and sunk investments inherent in scenarios such as lobbying, competition for market power, labor‐market tournaments, and R&D races. Players compete for one of several identical prizes by choosing a score. Conditional on winning or losing, it is weakly better to do so with a lower score. This formulation allows for differing production technologies, costs of capital, prior investments, attitudes toward risk, and conditional and unconditional investments, among others. I provide a closed‐form formula for players' equilibrium payoffs and analyze player participation. A special case of contests is multiprize, complete‐information all‐pay auctions.