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151.
The authors show how saddlepoint techniques lead to highly accurate approximations for Bayesian predictive densities and cumulative distribution functions in stochastic model settings where the prior is tractable, but not necessarily the likelihood or the predictand distribution. They consider more specifically models involving predictions associated with waiting times for semi‐Markov processes whose distributions are indexed by an unknown parameter θ. Bayesian prediction for such processes when they are not stationary is also addressed and the inverse‐Gaussian based saddlepoint approximation of Wood, Booth & Butler (1993) is shown to accurately deal with the nonstationarity whereas the normal‐based Lugannani & Rice (1980) approximation cannot, Their methods are illustrated by predicting various waiting times associated with M/M/q and M/G/1 queues. They also discuss modifications to the matrix renewal theory needed for computing the moment generating functions that are used in the saddlepoint methods. 相似文献
152.
Ronald S. Burt 《Social science research》1980,9(2):146-177
Using data on market transactions involving manufacturing industries in the 1967 American economy and data on directors of large firms involved in manufacturing at the time, the frequency of interorganizational ties through corporate directorates operating in economic sectors J and M is shown to increase with the extent to which average profits in industry J are constrained by its market transactions (sales and/or purchases) with sector M. Market constraint has its strongest and most direct effect on the spread of a corporation through ownership ties into multiple sectors rather than on the corporation's use of interlocking. However, the central point demonstrated concerns directorate tie frequency. Not only is the absence of directorate ties predicted by the absence of market constraint, the actual frequency of ties between economic sectors is predicted by the intensity of market constraint they constitute for one another's profits. 相似文献
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We seek to integrate economic, sociological and psychological models by examining whether early-onset psychiatric disorders predict adult male socioeconomic status. Unlike most status attainment studies, we include information on major psychiatric disorders. We use data from the National Comorbidity Survey, the first survey to administer a structured psychiatric interview to a national probability sample in the U.S. Our sample includes men between the ages of 25 and 54. We find that disorders that occur before age 16 reduce educational attainment and the probability of being currently married and increase the probability of having a recent disorder, each of which is a predictor of adult male unemployment. We also find that these early-onset disorders have a direct negative effect on male employment. The estimated magnitudes of these effects are often as large as those of family background variables, suggesting that research on adult male SES should pay greater attention to mental health issues. 相似文献
157.
This paper proposes an interpretation of the pure capital rationing problem as it is faced by many managers in decentralized firms in which budgets serve as the principal means of control. It is argued that the appropriate objective for situations such as these is the maximization of either undiscounted earnings over the planning horizon or total value of the investments at the horizon. When either objective function is used in conjunction with the frequently encountered linear programming models for the capital rationing problem, shadow prices result which give rise to discount rates that will reproduce the optimal solution using discounted cash flow as a criterion. These results are then used as a means for clarifying several confusing and misleading statements that have appeared in the literature. 相似文献
158.
Ronald N. Taylor 《决策科学》1975,6(3):409-429
In this paper the implications of cognitive strain for decision-making effectiveness are explored. Literature concerning the psychological processes of decisionmakers which underlie the operation of cognitive strain and which predispose them to the effects of cognitive strain, is reviewed. Next, the impact of cognitive strain on narrowly constraining or “bounding” rational decision-making is examined, and the choice strategies of satisficing and incrementalizing are criticized as failing to broaden the bounds of rational decision-making. Finally, elements of an eclectic choice strategy designed to assist decision-makers handle the informational demands of complex decision problems are discussed. 相似文献
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Shahrzad Mavandadi Laura O. Wray Ronald W. Toseland 《Journal of gerontological social work》2019,62(3):324-337
This study examined the psychometric properties of the Self-Appraisal of Change Scale, a measure designed to capture domains that are subjectively relevant to caregivers, associated with overall well-being, and amenable to change upon engaging in an intervention. Data from 107 caregivers of veterans with dementia enrolled in a randomized controlled trial of a telephone-delivered caregiver psychoeducation and support group program (the Telehealth Education Program (TEP)) were analyzed. The TEP, which was delivered by master’s prepared social workers and a nurse dementia care manager, targeted caregivers’ dementia-related knowledge, attitudes, and self-management skills. Analyses were conducted to determine the factor structure, reliability, validity, and measurement invariance of the scale. Factor analyses yielded a single-factor solution for the scale’s nine items. The reliability and construct validity of the scale were also supported by the analyses. Multi-group analyses suggested that meaningful comparisons of scale items and total raw scores can be made across usual care (UC) and intervention groups. The findings offer preliminary support that the scale may represent a valid and reliable instrument that captures perceived changes in key domains (e.g. caregiving knowledge, attitudes, and skill) following participation in a psychoeducational and support intervention trial. 相似文献