PROMETHEE IV through kernel density estimation

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a new version of PROMETHEE IV, which considers the empirical distribution of the criteria through kernel density estimation to evaluate alternatives. The developed method has the ability to treat criteria according to their distribution. The classic PROMETHEE IV can produce divergent integrals, and this could be the cause for its insufficient exploration in literature. The proposed method overcomes this situation since large values have little weight compared to values near the mean.     

Some new results on univariate and multivariate permutation tests for ordinal categorical variables under restricted alternatives

In several sciences, especially when dealing with performance evaluation, complex testing problems may arise due in particular to the presence of multidimensional categorical data. In such cases the application of nonparametric methods can represent a reasonable approach. In this paper, we consider the problem of testing whether a “treatment” is stochastically larger than a “control” when univariate and multivariate ordinal categorical data are present. We propose a solution based on the nonparametric combination of dependent permutation tests (Pesarin in Multivariate permutation test with application to biostatistics. Wiley, Chichester, 2001), on variable transformation, and on tests on moments. The solution requires the transformation of categorical response variables into numeric variables and the breaking up of the original problem’s hypotheses into partial sub-hypotheses regarding the moments of the transformed variables. This type of problem is considered to be almost impossible to analyze within likelihood ratio tests, especially in the multivariate case (Wang in J Am Stat Assoc 91:1676–1683, 1996). A comparative simulation study is also presented along with an application example.     

Perceptions of Nuclear and Other Risks in Japan and the United States

As part of a study of nuclear power development in Japan and the United States, surveys of perceptions of risk toward 30 activities, substances, and technologies have been carried out in the Pacific Northwest and Tokyo, Japan. The results show that people in both countries have the highest level of dread toward nuclear waste disposal, nuclear accidents, and nuclear war, greater even than their dread of crime and AIDS. In addition to comparisons of dread, the paper also discusses similarities and differences between Japanese and American responses for other dimensions of risk perception.     

Desired Risk: Broadening the Social Amplification of Risk Framework1

Recently Kasperson et al.⁽⁶⁾ have proposed a conceptual framework, “The Social Amplification of Risk,” as a beginning step in developing a comprehensive theory of public experience of risk. A central goal of their effort is to systematically link technical assessments of risk with the growing findings from social scientific research. A key and growing domain of public risk experience is “desired” risk, but this is virtually neglected in the framework. This paper evaluates the scope of the “Social Amplification of Risk Framework,” asking whether it is applicable to desired risks, such as risk recreation (hang gliding, mountain climbing, and so forth). The analysis is supportive of the framework's applicability to the domain of desired risk.     

Bayesian Longitudinal Data Analysis with Mixed Models and Thick-tailed Distributions using MCMC

Linear mixed effects models are frequently used to analyse longitudinal data, due to their flexibility in modelling the covariance structure between and within observations. Further, it is easy to deal with unbalanced data, either with respect to the number of observations per subject or per time period, and with varying time intervals between observations. In most applications of mixed models to biological sciences, a normal distribution is assumed both for the random effects and for the residuals. This, however, makes inferences vulnerable to the presence of outliers. Here, linear mixed models employing thick-tailed distributions for robust inferences in longitudinal data analysis are described. Specific distributions discussed include the Student-t, the slash and the contaminated normal. A Bayesian framework is adopted, and the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithms are used to carry out the posterior analyses. An example with data on orthodontic distance growth in children is discussed to illustrate the methodology. Analyses based on either the Student-t distribution or on the usual Gaussian assumption are contrasted. The thick-tailed distributions provide an appealing robust alternative to the Gaussian process for modelling distributions of the random effects and of residuals in linear mixed models, and the MCMC implementation allows the computations to be performed in a flexible manner.     

Biopharmaceutical and chemical firms’ R&D disclosure,and cost of equity: The impact of the regulatory regime

Based on the proprietary costs theory, this paper aims to survey whether the regulatory regime (mandatory versus voluntary) of research and development (R&D) narrative disclosures impacts, by the means of a reduced information asymmetry, on the cost of equity capital. In order to construct a disclosure index to investigate the extent and the comprehensiveness of R&D information, the methodology adopted was the content analysis of 77 biopharmaceutical and chemical listed companies’ management reports from eight Western European countries across the period 2005–2009. Hence, we obtained an (unbalanced) panel data of 309 observations. The cost of capital has subsequently been regressed on the disclosure index. Results confirm a larger amount of R&D disclosures whereas information is more regulated, but they do not confirm an inverse relation with the cost of capital.     

Employment status and education/employment relationship of PhD graduates from the University of Ferrara

Two sample surveys of Post-Docs were planned and carried out at the University of Ferrara in 2004 and 2007 aimed at determining the professional status of Post-Docs, the relationship between their PhD education and employment, and their satisfaction with certain aspects of the education and research program. As part of these surveys, two methodological contributions were developed. The first concerns an extension of the non-parametric combination of dependent rankings to construct a synthesis of composite indicators measuring satisfaction with particular aspects of PhD programs [R. Arboretti Giancristofaro and L. Salmaso, Global ranking indicators with application to the evaluation of PhD programs, Atti del Convegno “Valutazione e Customer Satisfaction per la Qualità dei Servizi”, Roma, 8–9 Settembre 2005, pp. 19–22; R. Arboretti Giancristofaro, S. Bonnini, and L. Salmaso, A performance indicator for multivariate data, Quad. Stat. 9 (2007), pp. 1–29; R. Arboretti Giancristofaro, F. Pesarin, and L. Salmaso, Nonparametric approaches for multivariate testing with mixed variables and for ranking on ordered categorical variables with an application to the evaluation of PhD programs, in Real Data Analysis, S. Sawilowsky, ed., a volume in Quantitative Methods in Education and the Behavioral Sciences: Issues, Research and Teaching, Ronald C. Serlin, series ed., Information Age Publishing, Charlotte, North Carolina, 2007, pp. 355–385]. The procedure was applied to highlight differences in the interviewed Post-Docs’ multivariate satisfaction profiles in relation to two aspects: education/employment relationship; employment expectations; and opportunities. The second consists of an inferential procedure providing a solution to the problem of hypothesis testing, where the objective is to compare the heterogeneity of two populations on the basis of sampling data [G.R. Arboretti, S. Bonnini, and F. Pesarin, A permutation approach for testing heterogeneity in two-sample categorical variables, Stat. Comput. (2009) doi: 10.1007/S11222-008-9085-8.]. The procedure was applied to compare the degrees of heterogeneity of Post-Doc judgments in the two surveys with regard to the adequacy of the PhD education for the work carried out.     

The decreasing percentile residual life ageing notion

Earlier researchers have studied some aspects of the classes of distribution functions with decreasing α-percentile residual life (DPRL(α)), 0<α<1. The purpose of this paper is to note some further properties of these classes, and to initiate a theory of non-parametric statistical estimation of DPRL(α) functions. Specifically, the close relationship between the DPRL(α) and the increasing failure rate ageing notions is studied. Other close relationships, between the DPRL(α) ageing notions and the percentile residual life stochastic orders, are described, and further properties of the above classes of distributions are derived. Finally, we introduce an estimator of the percentile residual life function, under the condition that it decreases, and we prove its strongly uniform consistency.