TWO-PASS CUSUM TO IDENTIFY AGE-CLUSTER OUTBREAKS

The paper introduces a two-pass adaptive cumulative sum (CUSUM) statistic to identify age clusters (age grouping) that significantly contribute to epidemics or unusually high counts. If epidemiologists know that an epidemic is confined to a narrow age group, then this information not only makes it clear where to target the epidemiological effort but also helps them decide whether to respond. It is much easier to control an epidemic that starts in a narrow age range of the population, such as pre-school children, than an epidemic that is not confined demographically or geographically.     

Behavioral Economics and Regulatory Analysis

Behavioral economics has captured the interest of scholars and the general public by demonstrating ways in which individuals make decisions that appear irrational. While increasing attention is being focused on the implications of this research for the design of risk‐reducing policies, less attention has been paid to how it affects the economic valuation of policy consequences. This article considers the latter issue, reviewing the behavioral economics literature and discussing its implications for the conduct of benefit‐cost analysis, particularly in the context of environmental, health, and safety regulations. We explore three concerns: using estimates of willingness to pay or willingness to accept compensation for valuation, considering the psychological aspects of risk when valuing mortality‐risk reductions, and discounting future consequences. In each case, we take the perspective that analysts should avoid making judgments about whether values are “rational” or “irrational.” Instead, they should make every effort to rely on well‐designed studies, using ranges, sensitivity analysis, or probabilistic modeling to reflect uncertainty. More generally, behavioral research has led some to argue for a more paternalistic approach to policy analysis. We argue instead for continued focus on describing the preferences of those affected, while working to ensure that these preferences are based on knowledge and careful reflection.     

Non-linear models 1

This is the first application of a new method for testing stationary random point processes. Consider the class of all stationary ergodic point processes on the real line with arbitrary dependences among the inter–point distances (spacing).The hypothesis is :The observed process φ is a homogeneous Poisson process or more (resp.less) regular than a Poisson process.The sample is the vector of the first n points t₁, …,t_n.There is a close relation between our method for testing and queueing theory: For finding an appropriate test statistic, we observe the behaviour of a single server queue with the input φ.A table of critical values is given.     

Adolescent Socialization in Rural Appalachia: The Perspectives of Teens,Parents, and Significant Adults

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this qualitative study was to explore the social networks of Appalachian adolescents to understand socialization strategies and goals. A total of 46 interviews were conducted with five families (mothers, fathers, and adolescents) and 11 socialization agents the families identified as exerting significant influence in the lives of the adolescents. Interviews were transcribed and then analyzed using principles of grounded theory. Five themes developed from the interviews: the importance of community to the socialization process, adult involvement and support, adolescent monitoring, teaching respect and responsibility, and adolescent autonomy. Results suggest the need for in-depth investigation of adolescent development within a variety of cultural and social contexts to more fully understand these processes.     

Incomplete variance functions

Estimates of variance from samples depend strongly on extreme values. Incomplete variance functions may be used to explain the unreliability of variance estimates when the distribution is long-tailed.