Managing Change in Museums

Museums and the Paradox of Change, by Robert R. Janes. (2nd ed.) Calgary, Alberta: University of Calgary Press, 1997. 276 pp., $24.95 paper. Museum Strategy and Marketing: Designing Missions, Building Audiences, Generating Revenues and Resources, by Neil Kotler and Philip Kotler. San Francisco: Jossey‐Bass, 1998. 297 pp., $41.95 cloth.     

Review

Representing reality: issues and concepts in documentary by Bill Nichols. Bloomington and Indianapolis: University of Indiana Press, 1991. $39.95 cloth. ISBN: 0–253–34060–8. $17.50 paper. ISBN: 0–253–20681–2.     

A formulation of the concept of probability based on the use of experimental devices

This paper sets out to identify the abilities that a person needs to be able to successfully use an experimental device, such as a probability wheel or balls in an urn, for the elicitation of subjective probabilities. It is assumed that the successful use of the device requires that the person elicits unique probability values that obey the standard probability laws. This leads to a definition of probability based on the idea of the similarity between the likeliness of events and this concept is naturally extended to the idea that probabilities have strengths, which relates to information about the likeliness of an event that lies beyond a simple probability value. The latter notion is applied to the problem of explaining the Ellsberg paradox. To avoid the definition of probability being circular, probabilities are defined such that they depend on the choice of a reference set of events R which, in simple cases, corresponds to the raw outcomes produced by using an experimental device. However, it is shown that even when the events in R are considered as having an “equal chance” of occurring, the values and/or strengths of probabilities can still be affected by the choice of the set R.     

Graphical methods for comparing confounding in two or more designs

In many circumstances it is necessary to design an experiment with partial confounding of parameter estimates. In this situation, one would like to have tools to assess and compare candidate designs graphically. In this paper we discuss two graphical representations of design properties, and illustrate their application with two examples.     

(M,S)-optimal row-column designs

Row-column designs may be considered to have two blocking schemes, namely the treatments by rows and treatments by columns component block designs. The (M,S)-optimality criterion is applied to row-column designs, and che connection between the (M,S)-optimal design and its component block designs is demonstrated.     

Career Techniques and Interventions: Themes From an International Conversation

The need for appropriate, timely, and increasingly comprehensive career development and education programs continues to escalate. It is interesting that despite the differences in cultures, religions, economies, political systems, and education structures, many countries face similar challenges when designing and implementing career development programs. Sharing and adapting career development interventions and techniques cross‐culturally appear to be viable strategies for implementing or enhancing programs, provided the concepts and materials are tailored to the countries' unique requirements.     

A GUIDE TO THE PITFALLS OF IDENTIFYING PRICE DISCRIMINATION

This paper demonstrates that plausible cost-based explanations exist for what are commonly perceived to be cases of price discrimination. We explain such commonly discussed problems as the price spreads of retail gasoline products, the "high" price of dinners at restaurants, the "high" price of popcorn at movie theaters, and the fact that airline ticket prices vary with how long the ticket is purchased before the flight's departure. Our explanations benefit from not relying on consumer ignorance or implicit collusion among numerous sellers.     

Exposure Assessment: Then, Now, and Quantum Leaps in the Future

Health risk assessments have become so widely accepted in the United States that their conclusions are a major factor in many environmental decisions. Although the risk assessment paradigm is 10 years old, the basic risk assessment process has been used by certain regulatory agencies for nearly 40 years. Each of the four components of the paradigm has undergone significant refinements, particularly during the last 5 years. A recent step in the development of the exposure assessment component can be found in the 1992 EPA Guidelines for Exposure Assessment. Rather than assuming worst-case or hypothetical maximum exposures, these guidelines are designed to lead to an accurate characterization, making use of a number of scientific advances. Many exposure parameters have become better defined, and more sensitive techniques now exist for measuring concentrations of contaminants in the environnment. Statistical procedures for characterizing variability, using Monte Carlo or similar approaches, eliminate the need to select point estimates for all individual exposure parameters. These probabilistic models can more accurately characterize the full range of exposures that may potentially be encountered by a given population at a particular site, reducing the need to select highly conservative values to account for this form of uncertainty in the exposure estimate. Lastly, our awareness of the uncertainties in the exposure assessment as well as our knowledge as to how best to characterize them will almost certainly provide evaluations that will be more credible and, therein, more useful to risk managers. If these refinements are incorporated into future exposure assessments, it is likely that our resources will be devoted to problems that, when resolved, will yield the largest improvement in public health.