Bias of the lse estimator of the first order autoregressive model under tukey contamination

Results of an exhaustive study of the bias of the least square estimator (LSE) of an first order autoregression coefficient α in a contaminated Gaussian model are presented. The model describes the following situation. The process is defined as X_t = α X_t-1 + Y_t . Until a specified time T, Y_t are iid normal N(0, 1). At the moment T we start our observations and since then the distribution of Y_t, t≥T, is a Tukey mixture T(εσ) = (1 – ε)N(0,1) + εN(0, σ²). Bias of LSE as a function of α and ε, and σ² is considered. A rather unexpected fact is revealed: given α and ε, the bias does not change montonically with σ (“the magnitude of the contaminant”), and similarly, given α and σ, the bias is not growing with ε (“the amount of contaminants”).     

Small-Sample Quantile Estimators in a Large Nonparametric Model

The large nonparametric model in this note is a statistical model with the family ? of all continuous and strictly increasing distribution functions. In the abundant literature of the subject, there are many proposals for nonparametric estimators that are applicable in the model. Typically the kth order statistic X _k:n is taken as a simplest estimator, with k = [nq], or k = [(n + 1)q], or k = [nq] + 1, etc. Often a linear combination of two consecutive order statistics is considered. In more sophisticated constructions, different L-statistics (e.g., Harrel–Davis, Kaigh–Lachenbruch, Bernstein, kernel estimators) are proposed. Asymptotically the estimators do not differ substantially, but if the sample size n is fixed, which is the case of our concern, differences may be serious. A unified treatment of quantile estimators in the large, nonparametric statistical model is developed.     

A Distribution-Free Median-Unbiased Quantile Estimator

Given λ∈(0-,l), let x_λ(F) denote the unique λ-quantile of the distribution F. A distribution-free median-unbiased estimator of x_λ(F) is explicitly constructed     

Two-phase nonlinear regression with smooth transition

A method of estimating parameters of twophase nonlinear regression with smooth transition between phases is described. It consists of two stages, both utilizing the least square fit. In the first one, each phase is fitted separately and, simultaneously, a transition point is determined. In the second stage, the two phases are joined smoothly by a proper transition function, which depends on the transition point chosen by the grid search. The practical aspects of the method proposed are demonstrated on the data concerning the soil bulk density in dependence on the soil water content.     

Estimation procedures with delayed observations

The statistical model is considered in which the collection of data from several independent populations is available only at random times determined by order statistics of lifetimes of a given number of objects. Each of the populations is distributed according to a general multiparameter exponential family. The problem is to estimate the mean value vector parameter of the multiparameter exponential family of distributions of the forthcoming observations. Under the loss function involving a weighted squared error loss, the cost proportional to the events appeared and a cost of observing the process, a class of optimal sequential procedures is established. The procedures are derived in two situations: when the lifetime distribution is completely known and in the case when it is unknown but assumed to belong to an exponential subfamily with an unknown failure rate parameter.     

Public relations role in a global competition “to sell” alternative political and socio-economic models of market economy

This article extends the transitional public relations approach to international public relations research. The arguments are presented that public relations strategies and instruments were and are further on used in that competition to promote, and sometimes impose certain political and socio-economic models of market economy. The main global players, first of the United States, but most recently also China are trying to “sell” their own model not only in the former socialist/communist but also in developing countries. On the other hand, the campaign to promote European social model has just been initiated by the European Parliament.     

Optimal Nonparametric Quantile Estimators. Towards a General Theory. A Survey

“Nonparametric” in the title is used to say that observations X ₁,…,X _n come from an unknown distribution F ∈ ? with ? being the class of all continuous and strictly increasing distribution functions. The problem is to estimate the quantile of a given order q ∈ (0,1) of the distribution F. The class ? of distributions is very large; it is so large that even X _nq:n , where nq is an integer, may be very poor estimator of the qth quantile. To assess the performance of estimators no properties based on moments may be used: expected values of estimators should be replaced by their medians, their variances—by some characteristics of concentration of distributions around the median. If an estimator is median-biased for one of distributions, the bias of the estimator may be infinitely large for other distributions. In the note optimal estimators with respect to various criteria of optimality are presented. The pivotal function F(T) of the estimator T is introduced which enables us to apply the classical statistical approach.     

One-Sample One-Sided Student T-Test Under Contaminants

A paradoxical behavior of the t-test under ε-contamination is presented. The paradox consists in that under a fixed distribution of contaminants an increasing of the probability of the appearance of a contaminant may decrease the violation of the size of the test! A simple explanation of the phenomenon is given. It is revealed which contaminants make the test conservative and which make it liberal: it appears that, in spite of the established opinion, conservatism or liberalism of the test depends not so much on the tails of the contaminating distribution as on where its support is located.     

Economics and public relations in a time of downturn: Dismal science,unseen history,and the need for dialogue

The major originating event of this special section was the ongoing crisis that continues to cast a shadow of financial depression across the globe and has led to calls for a radical rethink of economics. In this introduction we attempt to contextualize the special section's theme and articles with a view to sparking a deeper and longer dialogue – one that emphasizes the potential for positive disciplinary exchanges – between economics and public relations. As fields, they have been respectively characterized as the dismal science and the unseen history. In order to avoid such offspring as a dismal history of economics and an unseen science of public relations, we argue that the two need both to learn from, and to appreciate, each other. In the meantime, there is another crisis stalking public relations, and it is the possibility that the recent poor history of economics might be the imminent future of public relations.