邮传部与清末电政利权回收

清末是我国经济发展的小黄金期,这其中,邮传部领导的、包括电政业在内的交通利权回收是不可忽视的因素.邮传部对清末电政的利权回收之推动集中体现在中俄、中日交涉及中国与德国、英国、意大利、法国等国的交涉,除此之外还进行了进口替代生产,这极有利于该领域的近代化.以往学界仅仅关注民间的利权回收运动,而对政府部门多所忽视,此乃革命史范式在作祟.     

农村妇女参政权益及其法律保障

对“农村妇女权益调查”的统计分析发现,我国农村仍存在妇女参与村民自治的积极性不高、权利意识较淡薄且从众心理较强、农村群众普遍不认同女性的管理能力等问题。为发展农村基层民主。保障我国农村妇女参政权益,应在相关法律中增加女性候选人及女性代表的具体比例以及补选措施等相关规定,补充规定各级妇女联合会对妇女参政的监督机制,增补对妇女参政比例的保障监督机制。     

“腐败”的伦理分析

腐败是一种道德现象。"腐败"的伦理分析从后果、主体和责任三方面展开。后果条件表明,一个行为是通过败坏公职人员的德性或破坏制度秩序而成为腐败行为的。主体条件表明,腐败行为的主体要么是采取行动的腐败者,要么是被某行为腐化的人;在一个腐败行为中,腐败者和被腐化的人不一定是同一个人,两者也不需要同时出现。责任条件表明,无论行为者的破坏行为是由于自己的腐败习性、他人的引诱还是外力的控制,只要他能够预见到行为可能产生的后果,他都应该为自己的行为承担相应的责任。     

高科技型中小企业技术合作动机与模式的实证研究

企业通过合作来实现创新的动机很多,通过对高科技型中小企业的问卷调查和数据分析,结果表明,高科技型中小企业开展技术合作的主要动机是进入新的市场、向合作伙伴学习、扩大经济规模或范围及技术转移等.企业采用的主要合作模式包括,联合研究协议、联合开发协议、合资及客户与供应商的研发合同等.企业合作的主要动机和对合作模式的选择与企业的规模和企业成长年龄有显著的相关性.     

天然气产量季节预测模型的比较与选择

随着气田企业规模的扩大和竞争的加剧,需要建立一套完整的短期天然气产量预测方法及模型,以预测未来的产量发展趋势,故提出三种基于时间序列预测模型:布朗指数平滑法(Smooth)、季节系数法时间序列的预测、用于时间序列的灰色系统预测方法.但是普通时间序列预测模型的参数难以估计并且模型较难预测具有季节特征的时间序列问题,根据天然气产量的季节性、周期性特点,实验结果表明:季节系数法时间序列的预测能够对带有季节特征的历史数据进行有效预测,对进行气田企业的安全生产都具有一定的理论和实践价值.     

流动人口计划生育管理服务体系的缺陷与对策

流动人口计划生育管理服务工作是当前我国人口计生工作的难点。通过论述我国流动人口计划生育管理服务体系存在的理论缺陷、管理体制缺陷、融入缺陷、制度缺陷、机制缺陷、资源缺陷和手段缺陷,从战略层面、发展层面、工作层面提出提高流动人口计划生育管理服务效能的系列对策,以期能够破解困扰全国多年的流动人口计划生育管理服务难题。     

北京金融"怎么看?""怎么办?"

以习近平总书记视察北京为标志,北京的城市功能定位和发展战略方向得到了明确,北京整个城市正在重新出发.作为北京第一大支柱产业,金融业的重新出发已刻不容缓.通过对北京金融业的雄厚基础、 得天独厚的发展优势、 北京金融业实现转型发展存在的短板进行梳理和分析,提出建设"首都型金融"的新目标和近期推动"首都型金融"发展的重点任务.     

The Methuselah Effect: The Pernicious Impact of Unreported Deaths on Old-Age Mortality Estimates

We examine inferences about old-age mortality that arise when researchers use survey data matched to death records. We show that even small rates of failure to match respondents can lead to substantial bias in the measurement of mortality rates at older ages. This type of measurement error is consequential for three strands in the demographic literature: (1) the deceleration in mortality rates at old ages; (2) the black-white mortality crossover; and (3) the relatively low rate of old-age mortality among Hispanics, often called the “Hispanic paradox.” Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Older Men matched to death records in both the U.S. Vital Statistics system and the Social Security Death Index, we demonstrate that even small rates of missing mortality matching plausibly lead to an appearance of mortality deceleration when none exists and can generate a spurious black-white mortality crossover. We confirm these findings using data from the National Health Interview Survey matched to the U.S. Vital Statistics system, a data set known as the “gold standard” (Cowper et al. 2002) for estimating age-specific mortality. Moreover, with these data, we show that the Hispanic paradox is also plausibly explained by a similar undercount.     

Trends in bird species richness,abundance and biomass along a tropical urbanization gradient

Impacts of urbanization on biodiversity are commonly studied using urbanization gradients which provide a space-for-time substitution in estimating consequences of urban expansion. Rates of urbanization and human population growth are high in tropical countries of the developing world, which also hold most of the world’s biodiversity hot-spots, yet few studies have considered biodiversity trends along urban gradients in these regions. Bird communities across a gradient of nine sites in Uganda, from the city centre of Kampala to outlying rural locations, were studied over a six year period. These sites were ordered along an urbanization gradient using Principle Components Analysis based on habitat variables estimated at each site. Bird species richness showed a decrease from rural to urban sites, a trend especially evident in forest birds. There was no clear pattern in total abundance, total biomass or biomass per individual along the gradient. However, this latter result was heavily influenced by a colony of Marabou Storks at one site. When this species was omitted, there was evidence of a positive trend with urbanization, showing that as species richness decreased, the bird community was increasingly dominated by larger species with increasing urbanization, which were mainly scavengers able to exploit human refuse. These results provide further support for the negative impacts of urbanization on species richness, but also demonstrate trends in abundance and biomass are variable across different regions. In particular, the increasing dominance of larger species in urban areas may be relevant to certain geographic and/or socioeconomic contexts.     

Women’s attitudes towards the medicalization of childbirth and their associations with planned and actual modes of birth

Problem

Rates of medical interventions in childbirth have greatly increased in the Western world.