Sensitivity analysis of linear time-invariant compartmental models with steady-state constraint

Compartmental models have been widely used in modelling systems in pharmaco-kinetics, engineering, biomedicine and ecology since 1943 and turn out to be very good approximations for many different real-life systems. Sensitivity analysis (SA) is commonly employed at a preliminary stage of model development process to increase the confidence in the model and its predictions by providing an understanding of how the model response variables respond to changes in the inputs, data used to calibrate it and model structures. This paper concerns the application of some SA techniques to a linear, deterministic, time-invariant compartmental model of global carbon cycle (GCC). The same approach is also illustrated with a more complex GCC model which has some nonlinear components. By focusing on these two structurally different models for estimating the atmospheric CO₂ content in the year 2100, sensitivity of model predictions to uncertainty attached to the model input factors is studied. The application/modification of SA techniques to compartmental models with steady-state constraint is explored using the 8-compartment model, and computational methods developed to maintain the initial steady-state condition are presented. In order to adjust the values of model input factors to achieve an acceptable match between observed and predicted model conditions, windowing analysis is used.     

科技论文关键词的正确标引

针对目前很多科技期刊对科技论文关键词标引不重视,错误标引时有发生的状况,对关键词不规范标引的种种问题进行分析,指出关键词规范化标引是提高论文检索效率的保证,有助于提高论文的引用率,并给出正确标引关键词的具体方法和步骤：1．文献进行主题分析,提炼主题概念;2．根据椒语主题词表》等词表将主题概念转换成正式的标引词。     

“走西口”与晋蒙地区社会变迁

清代以来,人地矛盾等引起的晋、陕等地百姓大量涌入归化城土默特、鄂尔多斯、察哈尔等地,使该地区的历史发生了前所未有的变化,促进了农耕与游牧文化的交融。随着“走西口”移民的进程,口外蒙古地区从传统单一的游牧社会演变为旗县双立、农牧并举的多元化社会,并呈现出游牧由南向北收缩,农耕区相应向前推进的态势。该文主要以“走西口”移民产生的历史根源、活动范围、其所带来的社会变迁等几个点作为研究对象,对“走西口”移民活动进行研究。     

The Stages of Human Capital and Economic Growth: Does the Direction of Causality Matter for the Rich and the Poor?

This paper demonstrates that key models of human mobility across several disciplines can be considered as specific cases of a broader conceptualisation of mobility in terms of its contribution to wellbeing. It is argued that this wellbeing perspective offers important advantages for the formulation of policy in areas that must respond to mobility in cross-cultural contexts, and particularly in regard to policy relating to highly mobile, indigenous peoples. An applied example is provided through a discussion of how this conceptualisation of mobility offers a different understanding of the mobility of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, one that may have led to superior policy outcomes.     

Turkish politics: raison d’État versus republic

Turkey is still far from having reached the level of advanced representative democracies. Turkish social and political life oscillate between the two modes of modern unfreedom: tryranny of majority and soft despotism. The logic of raison d'État is observed as the dominant state of mind in Turkey both in power circles and among the ruled. The article explores the literature of the sociology of Turkish politics paying special attention to the evolution of political vocabulary. After examining the impacts of the latest developments and considering contemporary challenges of authoritarianism, it argues that a Tocquevillian tension of freedom/unfreedom is shaping the framework of Turkish politics.     

Tracking public relations history in 1960s’ Turkey: The prevalence and reflections of development discourse

This study is based on a historical research, which focuses on the institutionalization of public relations in Turkey during the 1960s, and interprets this process in the frame of planned development discourse. Primary written sources collected from archive research and oral narratives generated from fourteen semi-structured interviews conducted with the pioneers in Turkey are analyzed through categorization and thematization. Findings of the historical research indicated that similar themes and orientations guided public relations practices in public and private sector in this period. Accordingly public relations education provided necessary intellectual background and human resources.     

The Implementation of Voting from Abroad: Evidence from the 2014 Turkish Presidential Election

Voting from abroad (VFA) is a complex norm and practice due to the multilevel processes, structures and actors involved. This article explores the reasons behind the eventual adoption of this practice within the context of a long and well‐known history of emigration in Turkey. During the 2014 Turkish presidential election, emigrants from Turkey were finally allowed to participate from abroad even though legislation giving them this right has been in place since 1995. Based on archival research and fieldwork in Germany and the United States, this article discusses the varying relevance of three central explanatory factors to the implementation of VFA: emigrant lobbying, the electoral expectations of potential benefit by the governing party, and the presence of broader, state‐led diaspora engagement policies. The first of these is important but insufficient, whereas the second factor is necessary. Moreover, the presence of broader, state‐led diaspora engagement policies is a mediating factor. This article finds that specific actors like political parties may play the crucial role, highlighting the need for critical examination of their role in the implementation process.     

基于秦岭大熊猫保护的国家公园规划思考

为了更有效地保护大熊猫这一世界生物多样性保护旗舰物种,解决我国秦岭地区大熊猫保护中存在的矛盾,首先对国家公园与野生动物保护之间的关系进行简要梳理,然后分析了陕西秦岭大熊猫保护存在的问题,即栖息地破碎化、管理复杂、区社利益冲突、旅游开发不规范等,得出国家公园这一保护地形式对大熊猫保护具有重要意义.最后提出大熊猫国家公园陕西秦岭区建设应整合现有保护地、重组功能分区、实施大熊猫保护工程、完善科研监测体系、发展生态旅游、引导社区参与、加强环境教育等规划建议.     

The Role of Leadership in the Management of Conflict and Knowledge Sharing in the Research Groups of a Spanish Public University

Public Organization Review - This paper analyses how academics perceive their group leaders’ behaviour in managing the scientific activities of their research group and, particularly, how the...     

Analyzing Collision,Grounding, and Sinking Accidents Occurring in the Black Sea Utilizing HFACS and Bayesian Networks

This study examines and analyzes marine accidents that have occurred over the past 20 years in the Black Sea. Geographic information system, human factor analysis and classification system (HFACS), and Bayesian network models are used to analyze the marine accidents. The most important feature distinguishing this study from other studies is that this is the first study to analyze accidents that have occurred across the whole Black Sea. Another important feature is the application of a new HFACS structure to reveal accident formation patterns. The results of this study indicate that accidents occurred in high concentrations in coastal regions of the Black Sea, especially in the Kerch Strait, Novorossiysk, Kilyos, Constanta, Riva, and Batumi regions. The formation of grounding and sinking accidents has been found to be similar in nature; the use of inland and old vessels has been highlighted as important factors in sinking and grounding incidents. However, the sequence of events leading to collision-contact accidents differs from the sequence of events resulting in grounding and sinking accidents. This study aims to provide information to the maritime industry regarding the occurrence of maritime incidents in the Black Sea, in order to assist with reduction and prevention of the marine accidents.