Constructing Efficient Experimental Designs for Generalized Linear Models

Exchange algorithms are popular for finding optimal or efficient designs for linear models, but there are few discussions of this type of algorithm for generalized linear models (GLMs) in literature. A new algorithm, generalized Coordinate Exchange Algorithm (gCEA), is developed in this article to construct efficient designs for GLMs. We compare the performance of the proposed algorithm with other optimization algorithms, including point exchange algorithm, columnwise-pairwise algorithm, simulated annealing and generic algorithm, and demonstrate the superior performance of this new algorithm.     

Performance of some new preliminary test ridge regression estimators and their properties

The problem of estimation of the regression coefficients in a multiple regression model is considered under multicollinearity situation when it is suspected that the regression coefficients may be restricted to a subspace. We present the estimators of the regression coefficients combining the idea of preliminary test and ridge regression methodology. Accordingly, we consider three estimators, namely, the unrestricted ridge regression estimator (URRE), the restricted ridge regression estimator (RRRE), and finally, the preliminary test ridge regression estimator (PTRRE). The biases, variancematrices and mean square errors (mse) of the estimators are derived and compared with the usual estimators. Regions of optimality of the estimators are determined by studying the mse criterion. The conditions of superiority of the estimators over the traditional estimators as in Saleh and Han (1990) and Ali and Saleh (1991) have also been discussed.     

Lebanon's economic reconstruction after the war: A bridge too far?

Since the onset of the Civil War in 1975 Lebanon has experienced burgeoning fiscal deficits and an unsustainable public debt overhang. Much of this arose from the loss of revenues during the period of the Civil War 1975–1990 and attempts to maintain basic public expenditure, while from 1990 to 2006 this reflected post-Taif rebuilding and reconstruction of key infrastructure with limited revenue capacity. Considerable progress from the 1990s had been achieved in rebuilding the shattered economy from both public and private international and domestic sources, but its legacy is a huge public debt and a servicing requirement that currently absorbs alone almost 30 per cent of total government revenue and is the highest in the world on a per capita basis. While the need to reduce this debt to a sustainable level would be daunting enough in itself, Lebanon's fiscal predicament was further compounded by the outbreak of war with Israel during July–August 2006. The consequence of this 34-day war was the devastation of residential property, vital infrastructure, loss of agricultural production, industrial production, exports, environmental damage, the collapse of tourism and a further erosion of the influence and power of the central government. Estimates of the direct and indirect costs for Lebanon of this relatively brief but devastating war conservatively vary from US$ 10–15 billion. The implications of such reconstruction and rebuilding costs for the budget and public debt are potentially calamitous for Lebanon which is already struggling under the weight of debt overhang and its servicing. A key question is whether Lebanon can tackle this enormous task in insolation.This paper explores the background to the fiscal crisis, identifies from available literature the extent, nature and cost of the war damage, analyses the options available to the authorities in rebuilding the economy and highlights key policy issues and measures that will be required if a sustainable economic recovery is to be achieved. Despite its demonstrated and remarkable resilience to past trauma the paper concludes that the fiscal crisis makes it impossible for Lebanon to tackle the reconstruction and rebuilding task on its own and particularly in the wake of the events of summer 2006. The country will require substantial and ongoing financial support from international lenders and donors. The success of these efforts in the case of Lebanon is of particular interest as it could well be a microcosm of possible future outcomes for the region more generally.     

Coordinability and Consistency in Accident Causation and Prevention: Formal System Theoretic Concepts for Safety in Multilevel Systems

Although a “system approach” to accidents in sociotechnical systems has been frequently advocated, formal system theoretic concepts remain absent in the literature on accident analysis and system safety. To address this gap, we introduce the notions of coordinability and consistency from the hierarchical and multilevel systems theory literature. We then investigate the applicability and the importance of these concepts to accident causation and safety. Using illustrative examples, including the worst disaster in aviation history, and recent incidents in the United States of aircraft clipping each other on the tarmac, we propose that the lack of coordinability is a fundamental failure mechanism causing or contributing to accidents in multilevel systems. We make a similar case for the lack of consistency. Coordinability and consistency become ingredients for accident prevention, and their absence fundamental failure mechanisms that can lead to system accidents. Finally, using the concepts introduced in this work, we identify several venues for further research, including the development of a theory of coordination in multilevel systems, the investigation of potential synergies between coordinability, consistency, and the high reliability organizations paradigm, and the possibility of reframing the view that “sloppy management is the root cause of many industrial accidents” as one of lack of coordinability and/or consistency between management and operations. By introducing and expanding on the concepts of coordinability and consistency, we hope to contribute to the thinking about, and the to language of, accident causation, and prevention and to add to the intellectual toolkit of safety professionals and academics.     

Comparison of location parameters of two exponential distributions when scale parameters are different and unknown

Letx _i(1)≤x _i(2)≤…≤x _i(r_i) be the right-censored samples of sizesn _i from theith exponential distributions $\sigma _i^{ - 1} exp\{ - (x - \mu _i )\sigma _i^{ - 1} \} ,i = 1,2$ where μ_i and σ_i are the unknown location and scale parameters respectively. This paper deals with the posteriori distribution of the difference between the two location parameters, namely μ₂-μ₁, which may be represented in the form $\mu _2 - \mu _1 \mathop = \limits^\mathcal{D} x_{2(1)} - x_{1(1)} + F_1 \sin \theta - F_2 \cos \theta $ where $\mathop = \limits^\mathcal{D} $ stands for equal in distribution,F _i stands for the central F-variable with [2,2(r _i?1)] degrees of freedom and $\tan \theta = \frac{{n_2 s_{x1} }}{{n_1 s_{x2} }}, s_{x1} = (r_1 - 1)^{ - 1} \left\{ {\sum\limits_{j = 1}^{r_i - 1} {(n_i - j)(x_{i(j + 1)} - x_{i(j)} )} } \right\}$ The paper also derives the distribution of the statisticV=F ₁ sin σ?F ₂ cos σ and tables of critical values of theV-statistic are provided for the 5% level of significance and selected degrees of freedom.     

(Muslim) Woman in Need of Empowerment

Why, in the current geo-political and strategic context seemingly in stark contrast to the “War on Terror,” does the emphasis on women in US foreign policy persist? Why the repeated references to the vulnerability of women who “need” US help to become “empowered” in the countries of the Arab Spring? An examination of US policymakers’ discourses indicates a neo-orientalist biopolitical construction of the (Muslim) female population as one in perpetual need of “empowerment,” presumably by American or western benefactors. Public statements by US foreign policy officials, discussions of government programs and Congressional testimony add to the repertoire of a western-constructed archaeology of neo-orientalist knowledge of Islam. Further, these gendered discursive “imperial encounters” create open-ended possibilities for US interventionist policies in the region for years to come. The Arab (Muslim) woman may have participated in sparking and sustaining revolutions and even bringing down dictators, but she must still be trained and taught – by Americans or westerners. The sometimes didactic, often foreboding “concern” for her empowerment is more nuanced, but no less significant, than the professed commitment to “saving” her as justification for military operations in the heyday of the War on Terror.     

Positive youth development in Māori and New Zealand European adolescents through an adventure education programme

Within Aotearoa New Zealand there is growing interest in positive youth development (PYD). A PYD approach provides balance to narratives surrounding outcomes for youth and broadens our views of what we consider beneficial developmental outcomes. In the current study we used sail training as a method to promote PYD in Māori and New Zealand European adolescents. Specifically, 54 Māori and 37 New Zealand European adolescents completed the 7-day youth-development voyage on-board the gaffed rigged schooner, R. Tucker Thompson. We demonstrate that, for both Māori and New Zealand European adolescents, psychological resilience, self-esteem, and positive outlook on life increased from the first day to the last day of the voyage. In addition, we demonstrate that the increases in psychological resilience were driven by the social/collective identity adolescents formed with their group over the course of the voyage.     

Urban growth management-the Saudi experience

Saudi Arabia experienced a high rate of urbanization during the period 1970–1986 resulting in accelerated annual growth rates for Saudi cities averaging more than 6.4%. Higher than usual growth rates created demand for the opening up of huge areas to meet housing, commercial, industrial and other land uses. Government's land grant policy and liberal interest free loans resulted in massive expansion of cities and towns all over the country with major cities of Riyadh, Jeddah, and Dammam having the biggest share. Lack of planning frameworks and weak city institutions could not direct the growth properly leading to sprawl and lop-sided development. This meant rapid extension of road network and utilities with high financial outlays. The slow-down in the economy and ever-increasing demand for infrastructure provision forced the government to initiate growth boundaries to tackle these problems in 1986. The paper discusses the methodology adopted and the process of devising urban limits and evaluates their impact on urban structures of Saudi cities. The paper draws some conclusions in the realization of objectives of the exercise with respect to, (a) control urban sprawl by encouraging infill development where utilities were generally available; (b) reduce cost of provision of infrastructure through better coordination tied to commonly agreed phasing; (c) maintain natural environment around the cities.     

Assessment of delay factors in construction of sport facilities through multi criteria decision making

Abstract

The construction of sports facilities widened drastically as the number of sport events gradually increased during the last two decades in the global environment. The requirements of International Federations to host these sports events impact the construction of these facilities. Construction complexity, budget and time constraints and pressure from the project stakeholders play an important role on delivery time of such facilities. The aim of this paper is to identify and evaluate the most significant delay factors that affecting the delivery of sport projects worldwide. From previous literatures and one-to-one meetings with technical experts, a list of 37 delays attributes were identified. These factors were categorised in 8 groups and distributed through an online questionnaire portal to sport facility professionals. 101 completed responses were collected and analysed through different ranking approaches and multi criteria decision making methods (Relative Importance Index (RII), Spearman’s Rank Correlation, T-Test and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The analysis of AHP concluded that “low level of consultant experience”, “low level of contractor experience”, “shortage of construction materials” and “difficulties in financing the project by contractor” were the most critical delay factors, while “delays related to contractor capabilities” was the most critical delay group. The value of this paper is to provide the industry professionals with the most significant delay factors in construction of sports facilities to take proper managerial actions to reduce delays.