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81.
82.
Stochastic effects and data uncertainties are present in any engineering calculation. Their impact may be particularly important if they concern the design of process equipment. A calculation model for the dynamic behavior of a heat exchanger and procedures to deal with the related uncertainties are presented. Their propagation through the calculation by means of a Monte Carlo approach is shown. The temperature at the heat exchanger outlet and the step response of a sudden variation in the heat exchanger inlet temperature are simulated and evaluated by way of example. It is demonstrated that the inclusion of stochastic effects and uncertainties provides a more reliable basis for design decisions and hence reduces the probability of errors. 相似文献
83.
Lesa L. Aylward Robert C. Brunet Thomas B. Starr Gaétan Carrier Elizabeth Delzell Hong Cheng Colleen Beall 《Risk analysis》2005,25(4):945-956
Recent studies demonstrating a concentration dependence of elimination of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) suggest that previous estimates of exposure for occupationally exposed cohorts may have underestimated actual exposure, resulting in a potential overestimate of the carcinogenic potency of TCDD in humans based on the mortality data for these cohorts. Using a database on U.S. chemical manufacturing workers potentially exposed to TCDD compiled by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), we evaluated the impact of using a concentration- and age-dependent elimination model (CADM) (Aylward et al., 2005) on estimates of serum lipid area under the curve (AUC) for the NIOSH cohort. These data were used previously by Steenland et al. (2001) in combination with a first-order elimination model with an 8.7-year half-life to estimate cumulative serum lipid concentration (equivalent to AUC) for these workers for use in cancer dose-response assessment. Serum lipid TCDD measurements taken in 1988 for a subset of the cohort were combined with the NIOSH job exposure matrix and work histories to estimate dose rates per unit of exposure score. We evaluated the effect of choices in regression model (regression on untransformed vs. ln-transformed data and inclusion of a nonzero regression intercept) as well as the impact of choices of elimination models and parameters on estimated AUCs for the cohort. Central estimates for dose rate parameters derived from the serum-sampled subcohort were applied with the elimination models to time-specific exposure scores for the entire cohort to generate AUC estimates for all cohort members. Use of the CADM resulted in improved model fits to the serum sampling data compared to the first-order models. Dose rates varied by a factor of 50 among different combinations of elimination model, parameter sets, and regression models. Use of a CADM results in increases of up to five-fold in AUC estimates for the more highly exposed members of the cohort compared to estimates obtained using the first-order model with 8.7-year half-life. This degree of variation in the AUC estimates for this cohort would affect substantially the cancer potency estimates derived from the mortality data from this cohort. Such variability and uncertainty in the reconstructed serum lipid AUC estimates for this cohort, depending on elimination model, parameter set, and regression model, have not been described previously and are critical components in evaluating the dose-response data from the occupationally exposed populations. 相似文献
84.
We address the problem of distributing safety-enhancing devices across a region, where each identical device provides for only local protection of the population. The devices protect nonidentical sectors of the population. The sectors of population are exposed to nonidentical intensities of hazard. A method for the screening and prioritizing of needs for the protective devices is described. An approach of risk-benefit-cost analysis under uncertainty is recommended as follows. Measures of hazard intensity and population exposure are identified. Exogenous parameters that influence assessments of risks, benefits, and costs are identified. Uncertainties of the exogenous parameters are propagated by interval analysis. Several tiers of the plausibility of need for protection are identified. The tiers are useful in setting priorities for the distribution of the safety devices. The method is demonstrated in an engineering application to roadway lighting, but has implications for disaster preparedness, anti-terrorism, transportation safety, and other arenas of public safety. 相似文献
85.
New ventures compete by creating innovative products. Liabilities of newness and inexperience, limited resources, rapid technological obsolescence and constantly changing market conditions often encourage new ventures to license other companies' technologies to complement and augment their internally developed innovations. Building on the knowledge‐based view of the firm, we propose that the intensity of new ventures' use of inward licensing reflects the demands of their industries and competitive strategies. The results of an empirical study of 361 US new ventures show that industry characteristics and competitive strategy influence their inward licensing as a means of lowering costs and maintaining strategic flexibility while building their capabilities. 相似文献
86.
This paper analyzes the problem of choosing the optimal order quantity and its associated number of standard containers making up the order for single-period inventory models under standard container size discounts. A range is determined that contains the optimal order quantity. Two algorithms are presented. The first algorithm solves the general case in which there is no restriction on the types of containers included in an order. The second algorithm solves a more restricted policy that requires the buyer to accept the order with successively smaller container sizes. 相似文献
87.
We believe there are some serious deficiencies in the Morecroft article on MRP problems which appeared in a recent issue of this journal. The article, at the most, shows that MRP, inappropriately imposed on an existing production system, can result in undesirable system performance. This does not represent a new or startling conclusion. Four problem areas in the article are discussed, and suggested alternative approaches are offered. 相似文献
88.
This paper is concerned with planning work-center capacity levels in manufacturing firms that employ a material requirements planning (MRP) system. It presents four procedures for developing work-center capacity plans designed to insure the production of components and assemblies as specified by the MRP plan and the master production schedule (MPS). These procedures (capacity planning using overall factors, capacity bills, resource profiles, and capacity requirements planning) are compared using simulation analysis. The results indicate that the performance of a procedure when measured against the MPS depends on the operating conditions of the manufacturing system. The results also indicate that the choice of a particular procedure often represents a compromise among the benefits of improved MPS performance, the costs of preparing and processing data, and the premium expenses required for more frequent adjustments in work-center capacity levels. 相似文献
89.
This paper considers estimation and prediction in the Aalen additive hazards model in the case where the covariate vector
is high-dimensional such as gene expression measurements. Some form of dimension reduction of the covariate space is needed
to obtain useful statistical analyses. We study the partial least squares regression method. It turns out that it is naturally
adapted to this setting via the so-called Krylov sequence. The resulting PLS estimator is shown to be consistent provided
that the number of terms included is taken to be equal to the number of relevant components in the regression model. A standard
PLS algorithm can also be constructed, but it turns out that the resulting predictor can only be related to the original covariates
via time-dependent coefficients. The methods are applied to a breast cancer data set with gene expression recordings and to
the well known primary biliary cirrhosis clinical data. 相似文献
90.
Sally M. Gainsbury Alex Russell Alex Blaszczynski 《Journal of gambling studies / co-sponsored by the National Council on Problem Gambling and Institute for the Study of Gambling and Commercial Gaming》2014,30(1):11-25
Students recruited from psychology undergraduate university populations are commonly used in psychology research, including gambling studies. However, the extent to which the use of this subpopulation produces findings that can be extrapolated to other groups is questionable. The present study was designed to compare results from university-recruited psychology student gamblers to those obtained from a sample of gamblers recruited from the general population that also included students. An online survey measuring gambling behavior and Internet gambling, attitudes and knowledge about gambling and problem gambling severity was posted on websites accessed by gamblers. Participants were recruited from two sources, a psychology undergraduate university population (n = 461) and online websites (n = 4,801). Results showed university-recruited students differed significantly from both adults and students recruited from the general population in respect to demographic variables and gambling behavior. Psychology undergraduate students were younger, more likely to be female, and had lower incomes. When relevant demographic variables were controlled, psychology undergraduate students were found to gamble less frequently, at different times, and to be at lower-risk for gambling-related problems, but had more irrational beliefs and more negative attitudes towards gambling than gamblers recruited from the general population. Results suggest that caution should be used in extrapolating findings from research using university-recruited psychology student gamblers to wide community populations due to differences related to gambling thoughts, attitudes and behaviors. 相似文献