Deepwater Horizon oil spill exposure and child health: a longitudinal analysis

Population and Environment - The BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill (DHOS) created widespread concern about threats to health among residents of the Louisiana Gulf Coast. This study uses data from the...     

Pearson-Tukey Three-Point Approximations Versus Monte Carlo Simulation

Accuracy of the Pearson-Tukey three-point approximation is measured in units of standard deviation and compared with that of Monte Carlo simulation. Using a variety of well-known distributions, comparisons are made for the mean of a random variable and for common functions of one and two random variables. Comparisons are also made for the mean of an assortment of risk-analysis (Monte Carlo) models drawn from the literature. The results suggest that the Pearson-Tukey approximation is a useful alternative to simulation in risk-analysis situations.     

Fast and approximate exhaustive variable selection for generalised linear models with APES

We present APproximated Exhaustive Search (APES), which enables fast and approximated exhaustive variable selection in Generalised Linear Models (GLMs). While exhaustive variable selection remains as the gold standard in many model selection contexts, traditional exhaustive variable selection suffers from computational feasibility issues. More precisely, there is often a high cost associated with computing maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) for all subsets of GLMs. Efficient algorithms for exhaustive searches exist for linear models, most notably the leaps‐and‐bound algorithm and, more recently, the mixed integer optimisation (MIO) algorithm. The APES method learns from observational weights in a generalised linear regression super‐model and reformulates the GLM problem as a linear regression problem. In this way, APES can approximate a true exhaustive search in the original GLM space. Where exhaustive variable selection is not computationally feasible, we propose a best‐subset search, which also closely approximates a true exhaustive search. APES is made available in both as a standalone R package as well as part of the already existing mplot package.     

Twenty Years of Economics Curriculum: Trends,Issues, and Transformations?

This is a comprehensive review of literature related to K-12 economics curriculum spanning 20 years, from 1998-2018. The search for literature revealed 18 articles and book chapters in peer-reviewed journals and volumes related to social studies and economics education. The study revealed several trends and issues related to K-12 economics textbooks, including publishing trends, the extent to which economics curriculum is relevant and enactive, and the influence of neoclassical economic theory in serving as the “official knowledge” undergirding the curriculum. The review presents debates in the field related to these issues. The study also reveals the possible influence of the 2008 financial crisis, revealing that economics curriculum seems to have changed little, although the number of scholars critiquing the curriculum has risen dramatically.     

How leader role identity influences the process of leader emergence: A social network analysis

Contemporary theories on leadership development emphasize the importance of having a leader identity in building leadership skills and functioning effectively as leaders. We build on this approach by unpacking the role leader identity plays in the leader emergence process. Taking the perspective that leadership is a dynamic social process between group members, we propose a social network-based process model whereby leader role identity predicts network centrality (i.e., betweenness and indegree), which then contributes to leader emergence. We test our model using a sample of 88 cadets participating in a leadership development training course. In support of our model, cadets who possess a stronger leader role identity at the beginning of the course were more likely to emerge as leaders. However this relationship was only mediated by one form of network centrality, indegree centrality, reflecting one's ability to build relationships within one's group. Implications for research and practice are discussed.     

Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

Unemployment and consumption near and far away from the Mediterranean

We study the insurance mechanisms employed by households to absorb unemployment shocks using comparable data for four countries: Italy, Spain, Great Britain, and the US. Results on family transfers when the male household head becomes unemployed suggest that family networks are the weakest in Britain, while unemployment benefits there are instead the most generous across the four countries. Despite these differences, food consumption losses induced by unemployment of the male household head are similar across countries. These findings are consistent with the view that family support and the Welfare State substitute each other in mitigating the consequences of unemployment shocks. The first author is also affiliated with CEPR and CESifo, the second author with EUI, CEPR, CESifo, and IZA.     

Digital Inequality and Place: The Effects of Technological Diffusion on Internet Proficiency and Usage across Rural,Suburban, and Urban Counties*

Recently researchers have made efforts to reconceptualize digital inequality into discrete levels. These levels reflect access to and diffusion of technologies, proficiency in Internet usage, and propensity to take advantage of the opportunities afforded by information and communication technologies for assistance in daily life. We assess the utility of this approach for studying digital inequality across rural, suburban, and urban counties. Based on data from a 2005 nationally representative random sample telephone survey of 2,185 adults, the results provide mixed support for using this approach to studying digital inequality. In particular, we find that rural residents use Internet technologies less for assistance in helping with economics and other daily activities when compared with individuals from suburban and urban areas; however, our results suggest that this relationship is the product of the slow diffusion of advanced technologies to rural areas. The implications of these findings for understanding this under‐theorized form of inequality are discussed, and we make contributions to this literature through empirically addressing issues of digital capital.     

Does Viewing Pornography Diminish Religiosity Over Time? Evidence From Two-Wave Panel Data

Research consistently shows a negative association between religiosity and viewing pornography. While scholars typically assume that greater religiosity leads to less frequent pornography use, none have empirically examined whether the reverse could be true: that greater pornography use may lead to lower levels of religiosity over time. I tested for this possibility using two waves of the nationally representative Portraits of American Life Study (PALS). Persons who viewed pornography at all at Wave 1 reported more religious doubt, lower religious salience, and lower prayer frequency at Wave 2 compared to those who never viewed porn. Considering the effect of porn-viewing frequency, viewing porn more often at Wave 1 corresponded to increases in religious doubt and declining religious salience at Wave 2. However, the effect of earlier pornography use on later religious service attendance and prayer was curvilinear: Religious service attendance and prayer decline to a point and then increase at higher levels of pornography viewing. Testing for interactions revealed that all effects appear to hold regardless of gender. Findings suggest that viewing pornography may lead to declines in some dimensions of religiosity but at more extreme levels may actually stimulate, or at least be conducive to, greater religiosity along other dimensions.