Test de différence de contrastes et somme pondérée de khi-deux

After recalling the framework of minimum-contrast estimation, its consistency and its asymptotic normality, we highlight the fact that these results do not require any stationarity or ergodicity assumptions. The asymptotic distribution of the underlying contrast difference test is a weighted sum of independent chi-square variables having one degree of freedom each. We illustrate these results in three contexts: (1) a nonhomogeneous Markov chain with likelihood contrast; (2) a Markov field with coding, pseudolikelihood or likelihood contrasts; (3) a not necessarily Gaussian time series with Whittle's contrast. In contexts (2) and (3), we compare experimentally the power of the likelihood-ratio test with those of other contrast-difference tests.     

The effect of population growth on environmental quality

This paper summarizes research on the effect of population growth on environmental quality. Land transformations induced by the spatial expansion of agriculture are probably the major route by which population growth has affected features of the natural environment. These transformations are not automatic and their extent is influenced by social institutions. Intensification of agricultural land use is an alternative response with its own set of environmental implications. These are especially salient in the case of expanded irrigation. In contrast to relations in the agricultural sector, a new version of the conventional I = PAT equation is introduced to suggest that population growth is a minor influence on the extent of industrial pollution. Nevertheless, population policy may play a useful role in strategies to reduce industrial pollution.     

Race, ethnicity, and depression in Canadian society

This study examines racial/ethnic differences in mental health using data from the 1996-97 National Population Health Survey. Three hypotheses are tested. First, a socioeconomic hypothesis tests if differences in family income, education, and low income explain racial/ethnic mental health variation. Second, a social resources hypothesis tests if differences in social support explain racial/ethnic mental health variation. Finally, an interaction hypothesis tests if mental health variation stems from specific interactions of race/ethnicity with economic and social factors. Although there are socioeconomic, social resource, and interaction effects, the analysis shows that they do not fully explain racial/ethnic mental health variation. Overall, our results suggest that East and Southeast Asian, Chinese, South Asian, and black Canadians have better mental health than English Canadians. Jewish Canadians have poorer mental health than English Canadians. All other racial/ethnic groupings have similar mental health as English Canadians.     

Family sizes of children and family sizes of women

This paper demonstrates the relation that obtains between the average family size of women and the average family size of offspring of those women. It estimates the value of these two measures for cohorts of American women aged 45–49 in various years from 1890 to 1970. It shows that children born during the post-war baby boom actually derived from smaller families than those born during the low-fertility 1930’s; that under current patterns a woman would have to bear an average of almost two children fewer than were borne by her mother merely to keep population fertility rates constant from generation to generation; and that average family size for nonwhite children exceeds that for white by 50 percent, although the racial difference in family sizes of women is only 19 percent.     

Tradition and novelty in concert programming: Bringing the artist back into cultural analysis

Participation in many cultural activity systems, such as art worlds or scientific communities, is highly skewed toward an elite creating a pattern of activity that emphasizes rationality and repeated events. At the same time, the introduction of new works and participants in these systems promotes the opposite, that is, innovation. Rationality and innovative interests are usually approached and analyzed separately, but this article examines a social context in which they are jointly produced—concert music programming. To analyze the dominance of repertory, this paper documents concert programming over a single season and describes a model to illustrate the observed distribution of events. The skewed distribution of programming is then explained through reference to the aesthetic interests of concert artists, that is, composers and performers, and the congruence of a rationalized aesthetic to the recruitment of audiences and administrative rationality.An earlier version was presented at the Social Theory, Politics, and the Arts conference in New York, October 1990.